TAP2002 Ships

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Developing emissions projections at a regional
scale Carlo Trozzi, Stefano Crocetti, Rita
Vaccaro, Enzo Piscitello Techne Consulting srl
-Via G. Ricci Curbastro 34, Roma
(Italy) carlo.trozzi_at_ techne-consulting.com
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Background

• in the last year new European Union (EU) air
  quality directives have been introduced
• the Directives requires Member States to divide
  their territory into zones related to air quality
  standards
• the directives requires Member States to adopt
  plan and programs inside zones when air quality
  standards are not respected

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Topics

• EU legislation and prescription for regional plan
  and program for air quality management
• methodologies and software used in regional and
  local level emissions projections
• differences and synergies of national, regional
  and zone projection
• detailed methodology
• case studies

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EU air quality standards

• limit value, a level fixed with the aim of
  avoiding, preventing or reducing harmful effects
  on human health and/or the environment as a whole
• alert threshold, beyond which there is a risk to
  human health from brief exposure
• margin of tolerance, the percentage of the limit
  value by which this value may be temporarily
  exceeded
• upper (lower) assessment threshold, below which a
  combination of measurements and modeling
  techniques (modeling or objective-estimation
  techniques alone) may be used to assess air
  quality

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EU legislation procedure
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Assessment of ambient air quality
Zones where levels are between lower and upper
assessment threshold
Agglomerations (gt250.000 inhabitants) and Zones
where levels exceed upper assessment threshold
Zones where levels are below the lower assessment
threshold
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Plan and programs
zones and agglomerations in which the levels of
one or more pollutants are
higher than the limit value plus the margin of
tolerance
below the limit values

• maintain the levels of pollutants below the
  limit values
• preserve the best ambient air quality,
  compatible with sustainable development

attaining the limit value within the specific
time limit
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Regional, National EC planning
Measures at EC scale
National Plans
Local effects of measures at EC or national scale
Measures at national scale
Specific measures inside zones
Regional Plans
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National vs Regional
National
general activity trend
technologies trend national measures
main point sources trend
Specific trend inside zones
Specific measure on smaller point sources inside
zones
Specific measures for lines and area inside zones
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Model
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Projection drivers activity

• aa Vak / Va0
• Va0 (Vak) activity levels at base (at future)
  year
• examples
• population, gross domestic product
• agricultural production, waste production
• number of road vehicles, number of
  takeoff/landing
• tons of freight transported by road and sea
• specific reduction of miles in zone by traffic
  limitation
• specific reduction of miles in zone by fuel
  limitation
• specific modification of single Point and Line
  sources activities

12
Projection drivers technology (EFs)

• fß Vßk / Vß0
• Vß0 (Vßk) parameters which affect emission at
  base year (at future year)
• examples
• sulphur content of fuels
• new regulation limits on emissions from point
  sources
• and mobile sources
• solvent content of products (paints, inks,
  glues, etc.)
• application of Best Available Technologies
  BATs at regional or single sources level
• application of Best Available Practices BAPs
  at regional or single sources level

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Scenarios definition

• activity scenarios defined associating to
  selected activities, specific activity drivers at
  regional, zone, line and units of point source
  level
• technology scenarios defined associating to
  selected activities and pollutants, specific
  technology drivers at regional, zone, line and
  units of point source level
• emissions scenarios obtained as combination of
  activity, technology and point sources scenarios

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Area emissions

• Eijkz Eij0z aa fa ab fb dEijkz
• Area emissions Eijkz of pollutant j at year k, in
  zone z, for the activity i are evaluated from
  emissions at base year Eij0z and
• driver for regional activity indicators
  projection aa
• driver for regional emission factors projection
  fa
• driver for zone activity indicators projection ab
• driver for zone emission factors projection fb
• aditional emissions dEijkz for new absolute
  contribution (new activities in some zones)

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Point emissions

• Eijkup Eij0up aa fa ab fb dEijklup
• Point sources emissions Eijkp of pollutant j at
  year k, of unit u of source p, for the activity i
  are evaluated from emissions at base year Eij0p
  and
• driver for regional activity indicators
  projection aa
• driver for regional emission factors projection
  fa
• driver for unit activity indicators projection ab
  
• driver for unit emission factors projection fb
• aditional emissions dEijkup for new absolute
  contribution (new units, new plants)

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Line emissions

• Eijkl Eij0l aa fa ab fb dEijkl
• Line emissions Eijkl of pollutant j at year k, on
  line l, for the activity i are evaluated from
  emissions at base year Eij0l and
• driver for regional activity indicators
  projection aa
• driver for regional emission factors projection
  fa
• driver for line activity indicators projection ab
• driver for line emission factors projection fb
• additional emissions dEijkl for new lines (for
  examples new transport infrastructures)

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PREM system
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PREM Main menu
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PREM Report menu
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Regional case studies in Italy
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Regional case study 1
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Regional case study 2
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Conclusion

• A specific methodology is required for evaluate
  emissions reduction scenarios at zones level in
  the frame of EU air quality directive plan and
  program
• The methodology is complementary to European and
  National level planning
• A specific tool are developed for zone emission
  projection
• Methodology and tool are used in regional
  planning in Italy in the last years