SEARCH Observing Change Panel: Update on past activities and plans for the next year

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SEARCH Observing Change Panel Update on past
activities and plans for the next year

• OCP Overview
• Activities Arctic Observation Integration
  Workshops, 2008 Sea Ice Outlook, Coordination of
  agency-based and international observing
  activities
• Input needed CADIS Advisory Group
• Priorities for next year Coordination of
  observations with agencies, cross-panel
  assessment of observing efforts, refine Outlook

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• SEARCH Observing Change Panel
• Charge
• (i) Work with the broader scientific community to
  develop and at opportune intervals update SEARCH
  Arctic Observing Network (AON) Implementation
  documents,
• (ii) jointly with UCP RCP oversee
  implementation of AON by (a) identifying
  unexplored or undeveloped synergies between
  individual AON projects and other ongoing
  national and international observation programs,
  (b) identifying gaps in the observation network
  relative to the goals of the SEARCH program, (c)
  outlining potential partnerships with other
  agency programs relevant to the SEARCH AON
  effort, (d) helping ensure a broader legacy of
  the AON that extends beyond IPY
• (iii) provide feedback and advice as sought by
  the SEARCH SSC, Data Working Group, UCP, and RCP
  on relevant aspects of the science and
  methodology of observing change in the Arctic
  environment
• (iv) provide a link between the SEARCH
  observational programs and the broader scientific
  community to ensure flow of information and
  promote scientific exchange, promote
  international collaboration and coordination of
  Arctic observing system activities with
  complementary programs by colleagues in other
  countries.
• Members (new members appointed in 2008 shown in
  italics)
• Carin Ashjian, Hajo Eicken, Craig Fleener, Larry
  Hinzman, Ron Kwok, Craig Lee, Peter Murdoch,
  Maribeth Murray, Steve Oberbauer, Don Perovich,
  Eric Rignot, Taneil Uttal

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Arctic Observation Integration Workshops

• March 2008, Palisades, NY NSF AON ARCSS
  sponsorship with strong international
  contribution under SEARCH for DAMOCLES umbrella
• Three components for effective interaction and
  development of synergies
• Arctic Observation Network (AON) Meeting
• Autonomous Lagrangian Platforms Workshop
• Lessons from the 2007 Arctic Sea Ice Minimum
  Workshop
• Selected short-term recommendations (details in
  report at www.arcus.org/search/Meetings/2008/aow/r
  eport.php)
• AON Assessment of how well SEARCH goals are
  addressed strengthen interagency coordination
  tools to coordinate field research Sea Ice
  Outlook as synthesis tool explore integration of
  model output into CADIS portal data coordination
  at international level CADIS Advisory Group
  guidance of observations by stakeholder priorities

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Arctic Observation Integration Workshops

• Selected short-term recommendations (details in
  report at www.arcus.org/search/Meetings/2008/aow/
  report.php)
• Lagrangian Platforms sustain observation effort
  beyond IPY implement amphibious buoy work for
  improved buoy access to eastern Arctic harden
  ice-based observatory components for ice
  transition seasons continue adaptation of
  floats/gliders to ice environment white paper
  detailing acoustic navigation array
• 2007 Arctic Sea Ice Minimum Implement Sea Ice
  Outlook as analysis and synthesis tool
  retrospective assessment of Outlook and follow-up
  workshop synthesis papers on 2007 ice summer
  ecosystem impacts (incl. paleo-data) synthesize
  ecological human-dimensions information
  identify further datasets needed modeling effort
  to explore scenarios projections to inform
  management policy
• Long-term recommendations (details in report)
  focus on data information management,
  interagency international coordination,
  implementation of arctic-wide integrated
  ocean/ice observing array, integration of
  observations models to arrive at scenarios

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2008 Arctic Sea Ice Outlookwww.arcus.org/search/s
eaiceoutlook

• International effort- integrated, community-wide
  anticipation, summary and evaluation of 2008
  summer season (Core Integration Group chaired by
  J. Overland prepared outlooks from submissions
  Advisory Group reviewed draft prior to release)
• Builds on recommendations of March 2008 Arctic
  Observations Integration Workshop
• Monthly poll on September 2008 anticipated
  minimum ice extent, integrating model output and
  observations of ice evolution (18 different
  groups contributed)
• Summary evaluation released in early October 2008
  w/ strong recommendation for continuation of
  effort in 2009

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May Outlook
 Increasing predictive skill as summer
progresses, reflected in responses shifting to
higher values centering around observed 2008
minimum Ensemble simulations with ice-ocean
model hold promise
July Outlook
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2008 Arctic Sea Ice Outlookwww.arcus.org/search/s
eaiceoutlook

• Good agreement between projections and
  observations (July Outlook media 0.2x106 km2
  above observation in September)
• Conclusions Late spring ice conditions major
  driver of 2008 season, role of summer weather
  patterns well captured by ensemble simulations
  and surface observations, future evolution
  inconclusive but indications are for few years at
  current level before further reduction,
  replacement of multi- by first-year ice may
  provide for more predictability in future
• Improvements needed Remote sensing of
  spring/summer sea ice, ice-thickness fields for
  initialization, more rigorous forecasting/evaluati
  on methods, anticipation of ice evolution on
  interannual scales - to be addressed in improved
  effort in 2009
• Positive assessment by broader community several
  federal agencies very supportive, e.g., of value
  to NOAA w/ respect to climate-services discussion

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Sea Ice Outlook Next steps www.arcus.org/search/s
eaiceoutlook

• Fall 2008 Preparation of journal article (Eos)
  summarizing ice situation and evaluating Outlook
  as a synthesis tool
• 17 December 2008 Sea Ice Outlook Community
  Meeting at Fall AGU Meeting (time place tba via
  web site and ArcticInfo)
• January/February 2009 Sea Ice Outlook Working
  Group Meeting and Community eMeeting to
  synthesize results, identify strengths
  weaknesses of effort and plan for dedicated
  effort 2009 (NOAA workshop support anticipated)
• February/March 2009 Final Sea Ice Outlook
  Retrospective Report published
• Winter/spring 2009 Planning for 2009 Sea Ice
  Outlook effort based on feedback and
  recommendations

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Interagency coordination

• Low-level discussions with a number of
  researchers and research coordinators within
  federal agencies fruitful but more is required
• Timely topic with IPMC raising the issue at last
  SEARCH SSC meeting, new IARPC AON Working Group
  in place relevant agency observing programs
  underway
• Discussions within OCP on best way to move
  forward (two agency contacts Peter Murdoch,
  USGS, and Taneil Uttal, NOAA)
• In collaboration with the IPMC, IRPC, P. Murdoch
  C. Lee to develop plan for small-scale meeting
  in DC with agency representatives to explore
  options for improved interagency coordination in
  the context of AON and other observing activities
  (Spring 2009)
• To be further developed through potential theme
  of interagency coordination for next AON
  Investigators Meeting, tentatively scheduled for
  late summer/early fall 2009
• In preparation, request that agencies provide
  update on SEARCH activities by populating project
  database athttp//www.arcus.org/search/catalog/p
  ublic/catalogsearch.phpSEARCH project office to
  prepare official request to agencies

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International coordination

• OCP participation in Sustained Arctic Observing
  Networks (SAON) workshops
• Some discussion of SAON in relation to SEARCH and
  ISAC OCP submitted comments on SAON draft report
  for final SAON workshop
• Main points
• Need to address rapidity of change requires a
  highly adaptive observing system with strong ties
  to scientific research underpinning observations
• Strong linkage needed between observing program,
  modeling activities and decision makers and
  stakeholders in need of information for
  management and planning
• Arctic change is coupled (environmental,
  socio-economic, geopolitical) and requires strong
  interdisciplinary approaches, e.g. as those
  underlying Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
  focusing on services delivered by ecosystems
• Operational and research observing programs need
  to be brought together, requiring discourse among
  key groups, incl. industry, enforcement and
  others who are starting to ramp up large Arctic
  programs
• What is the potential role of ISAC?

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CADIS Advisory Group

• AON Arctic Observation Integration Workshop
  called for implementation of CADIS Advisory Group
  (CAG)
• Previous discussion of phasing out of SEARCH Data
  Working Group with completion of SEARCH Data
  Management Plan
• OCP discussed internally w/ SEARCH Data Working
  Group members, drafted Terms of Reference for CAG
  and identified potential members willing to serve
• CAG to serve as liaison between CADIS and
  prospective data information users providers-
  articulate needs of AON and broader SEARCH
  investigators, advise CADIS on products
  services
• CAG to be implemented by SEARCH SSC and to report
  to OCP

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CADIS Advisory Group

• Terms of Reference - DRAFT
• The CADIS Advisory Group (CAG) serves as a
  liaison between CADIS and prospective data and
  information users and providers from the
  scientific community and among stakeholders.
  Specifically, the CAG should help articulate the
  needs of Arctic Observing Network (AON) and other
  SEARCH investigators with respect to CADIS
  services and products. The group should also
  provide advice to CADIS on its products and
  services as needed.
• In order to be effective, the CAG should be
  comprised of roughly a half dozen members
  representing the observing change components of
  SEARCH (through the OCP and AON PIs) as well as
  the broader Arctic environmental change research
  community (through SEARCH SSC members with
  appropriate expertise). A member representing
  broader data management expertise or stakeholder
  information needs may be included as needed. The
  group is formed under the SEARCH governance
  structure and reports to the Observing Change
  Panel. CAG activities would be coordinated by the
  CAG Chair in consultation with CADIS, SEARCH SSC
  and OCP and the cognizant NSF program officer.

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CADIS Advisory Group

• Suggestions for members
• SEARCH SSC representation Max Holmes
• SEARCH/ARCSS representation Don Perovich
• SEARCH OCP representation Carin Ashjian, Steve
  Oberbauer
• SEARCH Data Working Group Transition Dave
  McGuire
• Others?

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Next steps

• Assessment of AON responsiveness to SEARCH goals
  by UCP - task and supporting materials being
  assembled similar tasking for RCP
• Integration of existing Arctic observing system
  components scientific level, agency level,
  international level - role of SEARCH as
  integrator?
• Defining (redefining?) and building partnerships
  with agencies - DC meeting AON Investigators
  meeting other steps?
• Cross-panel coordination and integration first
  steps taken with UCP RCP needs to be addressed
• Role of Cyberinfrastructure in data archival and
  dissemination Still an open question