Looking Ahead: A Cash Economy, Immigration and the Future of the Country

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Looking Ahead A Cash Economy, Immigration and
the Future of the Country

• Presentation by Joel Kotkin
• Distinguished Presidential Fellow
• Chapman University
• IAMC Conference
• Minneapolis, Minnesota
• September 22, 2009

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Trends to Watch in the Future

• Growing economic and financial power in
  developing world
• Growing influence of Asian, Middle Eastern and
  Latin immigrants in local economies
• US emergence as world center of post-racial
  economy

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An Urbanizing World
People in Urban Areas
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The European Era
Largest cities1900 London New York Paris
Berlin Chicago Vienna Tokyo St.
Petersburg Philadelphia Manchester Birmingham
Moscow
Source Villes et Campagnes, Paris, 1988
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Urbanity Shifts towards Asia

• Largest Cities 1950
• New York
• London
• Rhineland (Germany)
• Tokyo
• Shanghai
• Paris
• Buenas Aires
• Chicago
• Moscow
• Calcutta
• Los Angeles
• Osaka

Source Villes et Campagnes, Paris, 1988
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European Cities Gone from the Top

• Largest Cities 1994
• Tokyo
• New York
• Sao Paulo
• Mexico City
• Shanghai
• Mumbai
• Los Angeles
• Beijing
• Calcutta
• Seoul
• Jakarta

Source World Bank
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The Evolution of New Global Cities

• London and Paris --- 1750
• New York and Chicago --- 1900
• Tokyo, Los Angeles, Hong Kong --- 1970s
• Sydney, Singapore, Seoul, Sao Paolo --- 1980s
• Shanghai, Beijing, Mumbai --- 1990s
• Many more to come from Bangalore to
• Kuala Lumpur

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Long Term Fundamentals

• U.S. has healthier long-term demographics than
  most competitors
• U.S. only advanced country with large, growing
  population
• North America second largest energy resource base
  in world
• Economic system most resilient among advanced
  countries

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More Crowding to Come US Population Growth
1960-2050
Source Bureau of the Census, CensusScope
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Immigrants help drive higher birthrates Plunging
Birthrates/Aging Populations
Birth Rates per 1000
Source indexmundi.com
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Getting Older Slower
Population Over 65
Source CIA
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Room to Grow Total Arable Land
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In 2030, about half of the buildings in which
Americans live, work, and shop will have been
built after 2000.
58.9
25.7
6.4
Northeast
West
Total
Midwest
South
Source Toward a New Metropolis The Opportunity
to Rebuild America, p.v
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Towards a Post-Ethnic Future

• Americas Hidden Advantage in the new World
  Economy

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Essence of Post-Ethnic Vision

• America is the Race of Races
• Walt Whitman,Leaves of Grass, 1855

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Post-Ethnic Perspectives

• New immigrant waves have always unsettled
  cultural norms reshaped economic and political
  life
• Over time, a new synthesis emerged, with addition
  of newcomers
• Current wave unprecedented in diversity
• Newcomers reshaping economy, society
• Long-term Emergence of a new, post-ethnic,
  post-racial perspective

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The First Wave 1640-1840

• Germans constituted close to a majority in
  colonial Pennsylvania
• Non-English accounted for one-third of signers of
  Declaration of Independence
• American Revolution accelerated disestablishment
  of Anglican Church and greater religious diversity

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Colonial Observations

• Why should Pennsylvania, founded by the
  English, be becoming a Colony of Aliens, who will
  shortly be so numerous as to Germanize us instead
  of our Anglifying them?
• -Benjamin Franklin

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Early American Observations

• hordes of wild Irishmen and the turbulent and
  disorderly of all parts of the world who come
  here with a view to disturb our tranquility
• -Harrison Otis of Massachusetts calling for a
  ban on immigration for Europe

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Second Wave Immigration (1840-1880)

• Massive wave of German and Irish immigration
• Key to settlement of many eastern cities as well
  as the Midwest
• Reaction Rise of Know-Nothing Movement
• Immigrants spark industrial revolution, both
  providing labor and expertise

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Third Wave Immigration (1880-1920)

• Highest percentage of foreign born population
• New large immigration from outside Western
  Europe, predominately Italy, the Balkans, Eastern
  Europe, as well as Asia
• New immigrants dominate politics in many big
  cities, spark new industries such as garments,
  movies, intensive agriculture, fishing and
  franchise banking

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Third Wave Reactions

• Powerful nativist reaction what Henry James
  called this sense of dispossession for old
  Anglo elite
• Italians described in 1875 by New York Times as
  the Chinese of Europe, adding it was perhaps
  hopeless to civilize , or keeping them in order,
  except by the arm of the law

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Science Gets into the Act

• Psychologist Henry Goddard examining
  immigrants at Ellis Island, 1912

87 of Russians, 80 of Hungarians, 79 of
Italians, 83 of Jews classified as
feeble-minded
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The Current Wave (1970-today) is more of the
same and even more

• Immigrants Drive Next 100 Million by 2050key to
  divergence from Europe, east Asia
• Ethnic diversity has become wider and deeper
• Immigrants spark revival in urban and some
  suburban economies
• Economy more complex and more difficult for less
  skilled immigrants
• Mass media, telecommunications popular culture
  accelerate cultural mixture yet allow for
  maintenance of cultural ties abroad
• Long term Perspective Post-ethnic future

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Immigration Is Driving American Demography
64 Increase
U.S. Census Bureau, 2000
U.S. Census Bureau, 2002 Population Estimates
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Minorities Drive the Next 100 Million
Source McLeod (1996)
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Regional Impact

• Strong Presence in key urban areas
• Rapid Movement into suburbs
• Increasing presence in South, Intermountain West
  and other non-traditional immigrant areas

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Majority Minority States
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Hispanic Magnet States In the U.S. , 2000 Census
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Up-and-Coming Hispanic Growth Magnets
2000 -- Populations greater than 50,000
Source William H. Frey, analysis of 2000 Census
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Minorities to suburbs
Percentage of Population Residing In Suburbs by
Race/Ethnicity 1990-2000
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The San Fernando Valley is now the Mestizo Valley.
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Latinos Dominate New Demographics in the Inland
Empire of California
Source Census 2000 analyzed by the Social
Science Data Analysis Network (SSDAN).
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Diversity in Houstons fast growing suburbs
United States
Fort Bend County, Texas
Source U.S. Census
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U.S. Hispanic population growth is driven by
U.S.born
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40
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Source U.S. Census Bureau Pew Hispanic Center
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Economic Impacts of New Immigration

• Fast-growing retail market
• New generation of homeowners and entrepreneurs
• Powerful ties to emerging economies
• The New Face of America

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If the U.S. ethnic purchasing power was
represented separately, it would be the 6th
largest national economy in the world
Gross Product Comparisons, 2003 (in Billions)
World rank
Source World Bank Indicators database, World
Bank, September 2004 and Selig Center for
Economic Growth, University of Georgia The
Multicultural Economy 2003
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If the U.S. Hispanic purchasing power was
represented separately, it would be the largest
Latin American economy in the world.
Gross Product Comparisons, 2003 (in Billions)
World rank
Source World Bank Indicators database, World
Bank, September 2004 and Selig Center for
Economic Growth, University of Georgia The
Multicultural Economy 2003
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Ethnic Purchasing Power More Than Doubled Since
1990
Spending Power by Ethnic Groups (in Billions)
1990 2004 with 2009 projections
Source Selig Center for Economic Growth, Terry
College of Business, University of Georgia (2004)
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Top Ten Home-Buyer Surnames (2000)
Northern California
Southern California
Los Angeles County

• Garcia
• Lee
• Rodriguez
• Kim
• Hernandez
• Lopez
• Gonzalez
• Martinez
• Smith
• Perez

• Garcia
• Hernandez
• Lopez
• Martinez
• Smith
• Gonzalez
• Rodriguez
• Lee
• Kim
• Johnson

• Nguyen
• Wong
• Lee
• Chen
• Tran
• Johnson
• Smith
• Singh
• Garcia
• Martinez

Source California Association of REALTORS
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Whose Kids?Traditional Family Households
Analysis by William Frey
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The Millennial Generation is the Most Diverse in
American History
Percent of U.S. Population That Is African
American, Hispanic, Asian Pacific Islander,
American Indian, and Other By Age December 2004

• Echo Boomers
• Generation X
• Baby Boomers
• Pre-Baby Boomers

Current Population Survey, U.S. Census Bureau,
Dec. 2004
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When the kids get togethersomething happens

• Mixed race designation is fastest growing
  category
• But intermarriage rates are up, particularly in
  second generation
• Mixed race portion of population should explode
  over the next decade

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Percentage of Marriages That Are Mixed Race
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Breakout of Mixed-Race Combinations in Selected
States
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The Under 18 Population Has Already Become very
Multicultural

Under 18 Population
Total Population
Source Census 2000
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Post-ethnicity emerges

• A survey by New American Dimensions of LA and NYC
  Latino youths finds culture more important than
  race
• Spanish language TV ventures into English
• Cross-culture Latino music, food, some Asian
  influence move into mainstream
• Ethnicity matters, but less than class or culture.

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Final Thoughts

• Americas ethnic orientation will be radically
  different in a generation
• Latino, Middle Eastern, Asian influences will
  affect cultural life
• Americanness will remain and drive towards
  citizenship increase as a more diverse country
  becomes more, not less dependent on united
  aspects of national culture.
• They are us, or soon will be

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The Future Beckons America as World Model

• The US is the most successful big country for
  immigrants and global integration
• Half of educated immigrants in world go to
  United States
• Major Competitors EU, China, Japan- seem
  unlikely to lead trend
• Post-ethnicity will spread beyond gateway
  cities to all major US areas
• Newcomers and their progeny represent key
  competitive advantage for US

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Questions and Comments?