Title: Economic%20forest%20production%20with%20consideration%20of%20the%20forest-%20and%20energy-%20industries%20%20Presentation%20at%20the%20E.On%20Conference%20in%20Malm
1Economic forest production with consideration of
the forest- and energy- industries
Presentation at the E.On Conference in Malmö,
Sweden, 2008-10-30
- Peter Lohmander
- Professor of Forest Management and Economic
Optimization - SLU, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
- Umea, Sweden
- http//www.Lohmander.com
2Structure of the presentation
- 01. Objectives
- 02. Key questions
- 03. Recent developments in the world
- 04. The present state
- 05. Forests, CO2, CCS and risk management
- 06. The forest harvest level and industrial
expansion - 07. Integrated regional study and risk
management - 08. Conclusions and plans for the future
- 09. Thanks to E.On
- 10. References
301. Objectives
- To describe the analyzed system.
- To describe the most important problems.
- To describe and motivate selected solution
approaches and obtained results. -
- To serve as a starting point in an extended
discussion of important problems, solutions
approaches and future cooperation.
402. Key questions
- How should we define the system to be analyzed?
- Spatial definition?
- Time horizon?
- Included organizations?
- Uncertainty, risk or certainty?
- Objective function?
- How should we manage the analyzed system in order
to optimize the total result?
503. Recent developments in the world
6Recent developments in the world with very strong
impacts on the key questions
- A. The Financial Crisis
- Extreme risk and uncertainty in the general
global economic system. - B. The Global Warming
- The CO2 emission level has become the dominating
environmental concern in the world. - C. The CCS Technology
- - Extremely promising method that can handle the
global warming problem. Strong support from E.C.,
British Gov. and several large energy
coorporations.
704. The present state
8Sweden is a country that is dominated by the
forests.
9The Initial Physical State
- The information from the Swedish Board of
Forestry (Yearbook of Forest Statistics and
Internet) clearly shows that the stock of wood in
the Swedish forest has increased very much since
1920. This is true for pine, spruce and birch. - Source
- The Swedish Board of Forestry 2007-10-26
- http//www.svo.se/episerver4/templates/SFileListin
g.aspx?id16583
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11- Source www.svo.se 2008-01-02
12Age distribution in the county of Gävleborg
(2001-2005). Thousands of hectares in different
age classes (years).
13From the forest to the energy plants and forest
industry mills
14A harvester
15A forwarder
16A harvester in action
17After harvesting and before forwarding
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19GROT prepared for energy production
20A liner mill consuming wood of low dimensions.
SCA.
21A saw mill consuming wood of larger dimensions
and high quality. SCA.
22A flexible combined heat and power plant
consuming wood, GROT, peat and other raw
materials. E.ON Sweden.
23- Energy in Sweden
- Bioenergy in Sweden
- Biomass flows in Sweden
- Distribution of the forest harvest with respect
to forest industry, energi industry, stock level
changes and others
24Total Energy Supply, Sweden (2006)
Nuclear Power, 194 TWh
Hydro Energy, 62 TWh
Bio Energy incl. Peat, 116 TWh
Oil, 201 TWh
25(No Transcript)
26- Source Swedish Energy Agency "Energy in Sweden,
Facts and Figures 2005"
27Source Swedish Energy Agency "Energy in Sweden, Facts and Figures 2005"
28- Source Swedish Energy Agency "Energy in Sweden,
Facts and Figures 2005"
29Biomass flows in the Swedish Forest Sector 2004
(translated)
- http//www.svo.se/episerver4/dokument/sks/Statisti
k/dokumenten/Produktion/Tradbransle/ProjTradbr/Bio
massaflöden20i20svensk20skogsnäring202004-2(fö
rf20P-O20Nilsson,20prof20emer).pdf
30Increase of the forest stock
Energy
Raw material left in the forest
Forest Industry Products
31Increase of the forest stock
Energy
Raw material left in the forest
Forest Industry Products
32Increase of the forest stock
Partial harvest
Final fellings
Commercial Thinnings
3305. Forests, CO2, CCS and risk management
34Optimal dynamic control of the forest resource
with changing energy demand functions and
valuation of CO2 storage Presentation at the
ConferenceThe European Forest-based Sector
Bio-Responses to Address New Climate and Energy
Challenges?Nancy, France, November 6-8, 2008
- Peter Lohmander
- Professor of Forest Management and Economic
Optimization - SLU, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
- Umea, Sweden
- http//www.Lohmander.com
35Structure of the presentation
- 1. Introduction to rational use of the forest
when we consider CO2 and energy production - 2. Optimal dynamic control of the forest
resource with changing energy demand functions
and valuation of CO2 storage - 3. Optimal CCS, Carbon Capture and Storage,
Under Risk - 4. Conclusions
361. Introduction to rational use of the forest
when we consider CO2 and energy production
37The role of the forest?
- The best way to reduce the CO2 in the atmosphere
may be to increase harvesting of the presently
existing forests (!), to produce energy with CCS
and to increase forest production in the new
forest generations. - We capture and store more CO2!
38The role of the forest?
- The best way to reduce the CO2 in the atmosphere
may be to increase harvesting of the presently
existing forests (!), to produce energy with CCS
and to increase forest production in the new
forest generations. - We capture and store more CO2!
39CCS, Carbon Capture and Storage, has
already become the main future
emission reduction method of the fossile fuel
energy industry
Energy plant with CO2 capture and separation
Oil field
Coal mine
Natural gas
Permanent storage of CO2
40BBC World News 2008-10-17
- The British government declares that the CO2
emissions will be reduced by 80 by 2050! - CCS is the method to be used in combination with
fossile fuels such as coal.
41Reference to CCS in the energy industry and EU
policy
- 2nd Annual EMISSIONS REDUCTION FORUM -
Establishing Effective CO2, NOx, SOx Mitigation
Strategies for the Power Industry, CD, Marcus
Evans Ltd, Madrid, Spain, 29th 30th September
2008 - The CD (above) includes presentations where
several dominating European energy companies show
how they develop and use CCS and where the
European Commission gives the general European
emission and energy policy perspective. - Conference programme
- http//www.lohmander.com/Madrid08/MadridProg08.pdf
42- Lohmander, P., Guidelines for Economically
Rational and Coordinated Dynamic Development of
the Forest and Bio Energy Sectors with CO2
constraints, Proceedings from the 16th European
Biomass Conference and Exhibition, Valencia,
Spain, 02-06 June, 2008 (In the version in the
link, below, an earlier misprint has been
corrected. ) http//www.Lohmander.com/Valencia2008
.pdf - Lohmander, P., Economically Optimal Joint
Strategy for Sustainable Bioenergy and Forest
Sectors with CO2 Constraints, European Biomass
Forum, Exploring Future Markets, Financing and
Technology for Power Generation, CD, Marcus Evans
Ltd, Amsterdam, 16th-17th June, 2008
http//www.Lohmander.com/Amsterdam2008.ppt
43- Lohmander, P., Tools for optimal coordination of
CCS, power industry capacity expansion and bio
energy raw material production and harvesting,
2nd Annual EMISSIONS REDUCTION FORUM -
Establishing Effective CO2, NOx, SOx Mitigation
Strategies for the Power Industry, CD, Marcus
Evans Ltd, Madrid, Spain, 29th 30th September
2008 - http//www.lohmander.com/Madrid08/Madrid_2008_Lohm
ander.ppt - Lohmander, P., Optimal CCS, Carbon Capture and
Storage, Under Risk, International Seminars in
Life Sciences, UPV, Universidad Politécnica de
Valencia, Thursday 2008-10-16 - http//www.Lohmander.com/OptCCS/OptCCS.ppt
44Energy plant with CO2 capture and separation
How to reduce the CO2 level in the atmosphere,
not only to decrease the emission of CO2
CO2
Permanent storage of CO2
45The role of the forest in the CO2 and energy
system
- The following six pictures show that it is
necessary to intensify the use of the forest for
energy production in combination with CCS in
order to reduce the CO2 in atmosphere! - All figures and graphs have been simplified as
much as possible, keeping the big picture
correct, in order to make the main point obvious.
- In all cases, we keep the total energy production
constant.
46CO2
The present situation.
CO2 increase in the atmosphere 5-1 4
5
1
1
4
Coal, oil, gas
0
Permanent storage of CO2
47CO2
If we do not use the forest for energy production
but use it as a carbon sink. Before the forest
has reached equilibrium, this happens
CO2 increase in the atmosphere 5-1 4
5
1
5
Coal, oil, gas
0
Permanent storage of CO2
48CO2
If we do not use the forest for energy production
but use it as a carbon sink. When the forest has
reached equilibrium, this happens
CO2 increase in the atmosphere 51-1 5
5
1
1
5
Coal, oil, gas
0
Permanent storage of CO2
49CO2
If we use CCS with 80 efficiency and let the
forest grow until it reaches equilibrium.
CO2 increase in the atmosphere 11-1 1
1
1
1
5
Coal, oil, gas
4
Permanent storage of CO2
50CO2
If we use CCS with 80 efficiency and use the
forest with traditional low intensity
harvesting and silviculture.
CO2 increase in the atmosphere 1-1 0
1
1
1
4
Coal, oil, gas
4
Permanent storage of CO2
51CO2
If we use CCS with 80 efficiency and use the
forest with increased harvesting and high
intensity silviculture.
CO2 increase in the atmosphere 1-2 -1
1
2
2
CO2 DECREASES!
3
Coal, oil, gas
4
Permanent storage of CO2
52General conclusions
- The best way to reduce the CO2 in the atmosphere
may be to increase harvesting of the presently
existing forests (!), to produce energy with CCS
and to increase forest production in the new
forest generations. - We capture and store more CO2!
532. Optimal dynamic control of the forest
resource with changing energy demand functions
and valuation of CO2 storage
54The optimal control derivations and the software
are found here
- Lohmander, P., Optimal resource control model
General continuous time optimal control model of
a forest resource, comparative dynamics and CO2
consideration effects, Seminar at SLU, Umea,
Sweden, 2008-09-18 - http//www.lohmander.com/CM/CMLohmander.ppt
- Software
- http//www.lohmander.com/CM/CM.htm
55Economic Valuation of the Production of Energy
and Other Industrial Products
Economic valuation of CO2 storage in the natural
resource
The Total Economic Result (Present Value)
The Stock Level
The Control Level
56Initial stock level
The change of the stock level during a
marginal time interval
Terminal stock level
57The forest stock level has increased very much
in Sweden during 80 years!
Stock
V0
Time
0
58The stored CO2 is rewarded. The stored CO2 is
not rewarded.
If the forest owner gets paid for the CO2 stored
in the forest, it becomes optimal for the forest
owner to harvest less and increase the stock
level. Still, it may be even better for society
to harvest more, decrease the wood stock and use
CCS to store the CO2.
593. Optimal CCS, Carbon Capture and Storage,
Under Risk
60The stochastic optimal control derivations of CCS
are found here
- Lohmander, P., Optimal CCS, Carbon Capture and
Storage, Under Risk, International Seminars in
Life Sciences, Universidad Politécnica de
Valencia, Thursday 2008-10-16 - http//www.Lohmander.com/OptCCS/OptCCS.ppt
61Optimal CCS, Carbon Capture and Storage, Under
Risk
The objective function is the total present value
of CO2 storage minus CCS costs.
u control CCS level
x The total storage level of CO2
Discounting factor
62The controlled storage
- A stochastic differential equation
Expected CO2 leakage.
Change of the CO2 storage level.
The CO2 storage level is to some extent affected
by stochastic leakage and other stochastic
events. Z standard Wiener process.
Control CCS level.
63The optimal CCS objective function for different
risk levels. The details are found in the
reference.
V(x,t)
t
x
644. Conclusions
65Optimal Forest management conclusions
- If the forest owner gets paid for the CO2 stored
in the forest, it becomes optimal for the forest
owner to harvest less and increase the stock
level. Still, it may be even better for society
to harvest more, decrease the present wood stock
and use CCS to store the CO2. - The best way to reduce the CO2 in the atmosphere
may be to increase harvesting of the presently
existing forests (!), to produce energy with CCS
and to increase forest production in the new
forest generations.
66Optimal CCS Conclusions
- A mathematical approach to optimal CCS control
has been developed that can handle risk. - Possible leakage is an important issue that has
to be carefully investigated in the future. - It is important that the future management
decisions are based on a decision model
consistent with the structure of this model and
that the parameter values are carefully estimated
before practical management decisions are
calculated.
6706. The forest harvest level and industrial
expansion
68- Operations Research with Economic Optimization
- Raw material Perspective
- Total Perspective I
- Total Perspective II
69Raw Material Perspective
The present value as a function of the time of
the final felling, t
Value of the forest stand
Present value of the stand and the land
Discounting factor
Value of the bare land
70Present Value (SEK/Hectare)
Number of Years from the Present
Figure 1. The Present Value EXP(- 0.03t)(20000
1000t 2000)
71The Raw Material Perspective and Optimization
- You may instantly calculate the economically
optimal decisions, from a raw material
perspective, using software available from the
Internet - http//www.lohmander.com/program/Faust_Slut/InFaus
t3.html - http//www.lohmander.com/program/Stump02/InStump02
2.html
72Web Software for Economic Optimization from a
Raw Material Perspective
Stock level
Growth
Net Price
Net Price Growth
Land Value
Interest Rate()
Optimize!
73 Optimal Results
Optimal Harvest Year
Optimal Present Value
74Harvest Year Present Value
Present Value Difference
75Web Software for Economic Optimization from a
Raw Material Perspective
Web Software for Economic Optimization from a
Raw Material Perspective
Stock level
Growth
Net Price
Net Price Growth
Land Value
Interest Rate()
Optimize!
76 Optimal Results
Optimal Harvest Year
Optimal Present Value
77Harvest Year Present Value
Present Value Difference
78Observations
- From a pure raw material perspective, you may
show that a very large part of the Swedish forest
should be instantly harvested, even if the real
rate of interest is not higher than 3. - If the real rate of interest exceeds 3, you
should if possible harvest even more. - If the growth rate of the next forest generation
increases, you should also harvest the present
forest earlier.
79A large part of the forest is much older than the
optimal harvest age
Age distribution in the county of Gävleborg
(2001-2005). Thousands of hectares in different
age classes (years).
80Total perspective I
81Stock
V0
Time
0
82h0 lt g
h1 gt g
h2 g
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86Appendix 1 General proof that the total
economic value is a strictly increasing function
of the production (and capacity) level in the
next industry generation (as as long as the time
when the capacity will be utilized is not
sufficiently short to give extraordinary
capacity costs.) This approach represents Total
Perspective I.
87Derivations and parameters (I)
Rate of interest r 0,06
Growth (now) g 106
Growth (future) g 106
t1 5
Stock (now) v0 3000
Harvest (before t1) h0 86
z0 1
z1 1
z2 1
88Web software for Total Perspective I
http//www.lohmander.com/EF2008/EF2008.htm
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91vfuture h1 t2 totval
3000 106 inf 1680
3000 108 55 1703
3000 110 30 1718
3000 112 21,6 1727
3000 114 17,5 1732
3000 116 15 1735
92Observations
- Even if we do not accept to decrease the stock
level below the very high level of today, we
should strongly increase harvesting during a
considerable time interval. - In this first derivation, the improved growth
rate in new plantations has not been considered.
93vfuture h1 t2 totval
2500 106 inf 1680
2500 116 65 1800
2500 126 35 1886
2500 136 25 1939
2500 146 20 1973
2500 156 17 1997
94Observations
- If we are prepared to adjust the stock level to
the stock level of the year 1985, (approximately
2 500 Mm3sk), we should increase harvesting very
much during a long time period. - Then, the total economic value strongly improves.
- In this derivation, the improved growth rate in
new plantations has not been considered.
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97Total perspective II
98- Appendix 2
- Derivations of exlicit functions for the stock
levels at different points in time under the
influence of changing harvest levels and
production in dynamically introduced new
plantations. - This approach represents Total Perspective II.
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101How rapidly will new forests grow?
- Example Pine
- Director of silviculture Dr. Per Persson, SCA
says - Pinus contorta on average grows 40 faster than
Scots pine. - Source Jägmästarnas förenings höstexkursion,
Skogsakademikern, Årgång 21, Nr 4, 2007
102How rapidly will new forests grow?
- Example Spruce
-
- Dr. Bo Karlsson, Skogforsk
- Improved spruce plants already today give 15
better growth than naturally regenerated plants,
but the potential is even higher. It should not
be impossible to obtain up to 40 growth
improvements. - Source Skogsvårdsstyrelsens seminarium "Granen i
fokus" i Borås, - Tidningen Skogsvärden, Nr 4, 2005
- http//www.skogssallskapet.se/skogsvarden/2005_4/
sv13.php
103How rapidly will new forests grow?
- Example Intensive plantations
- - Treat forestry seriously! Start with
intensive forest management! These are the words
of Fredrik Klang, district manager at Sveaskog,
Västra Götaland.He says that a production
increase of 20 procent is easy to obtain if you
really want to. With fertilization, the
production could even increase by 150. - - Perhaps we can use 2-5 of the land for more
intensive production. If 10 of the forest land
is used for intensive production (that is the
size of the area today set aside for
environmental purposes), this would improve the
national forest production by 15. - This, in
turn, would improve employment, the environment
and the growth. - Source Skogsvårdsstyrelsens seminarium "Granen i
fokus" i Borås, - Tidningen Skogsvärden, Nr 4, 2005
- http//www.skogssallskapet.se/skogsvarden/2005_4/
sv13.php
104If harvested areas are replanted with more
rapidly growing seedlings, the stock path
becomes strictly convex (during time periods
with constant harvesting)
105Derivations and parameters (II)
Rate of interest r 0,06
Growth (now) g0 106
Growth (new seedlings) g1 126
t1 5
Stock (now) v0 3000
Harvest (before t1) h0 86
z0 1
z1 1
z2 1
ATKvot 80
106Web software for Total Perspective II
http//www.lohmander.com/EF2008/EFchange2008.htm
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110h1 t2 totval vfuture
116 65 1806 3055
126 35 1906 2666
136 25 1966 2586
146 20 2004 2556
156 17 2029 2541
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114Observations
- In this derivation, a growth improvement of 19
in future forest generations has been assumed.
(126/106 -1 19). -
- The maximum potential future growth, 40 or much
more with intensive management, has not at all
been utilized or assumed. -
- Still, we should strongly increase harvesting
during a long period. - For instance, we may harvest 136 Miljon m3sk per
year during 20 years. This period starts in five
years. 25 years from now, we will have 2.6
billion cubic metres in the forest (which is the
same as the stock level in 1985). Harvesting
increases by 58!!! - The total economic value strongly improves.
- Industrial capacity of different kinds that
utilize forest raw material should be very much
expanded. - The employment improves for a long time.
115New observations
- The forest policy and regulations are not
optimally chosen with respect to the economy of
Sweden, employment and the environment. - If we want to get the best possible forest sector
and energy policy, coordinated activities of a
new kind are necessary.
116Eon investsts billions in Sverige
- 2008-01-02 0741
- The new director of E.ON Nordic, Håkan Buskhe,
informs about large investments in Sweden during
the next years. - Between 2007 and 2013, the investment plans
represent almost - 50 billion SEK (5 billion Euro) (Dagens
Industri). Between 2007 and 2010, we are
talking about 37 billion SEK, Buskhe says.With
the investments in nuclear power, where Eon
partly owns all ten Swedish reactors, a CCP power
station in Malmö, wind power and four bioenergy
power stations, the new investments will give 8,5
terawatt hours. This roughly corresponds to the
two nuclear reactors that have been shut down in
Barsebäck. - www.realtid.se
117General observations
- The harvest level in Sweden is absolutely not too
high! - Sweden would, in every way, benefit if the
harvest level strongly increased during a long
time period. - We do not need the expensive roundwood import
from Russia. - We should not shut down the pulp mills.
- The unemployment in the Gävle region is quite
unneccesary. - The forest industry and the energy industry
utilizing raw material from the forest should be
strongly expanded. - Sources
- Lohmander, P., Ekonomiskt rationell utveckling
för skogs- och energisektorn i Sverige, Nordisk
Papper och Massa, Nr 3, 40-41, 2008,
http//www.Lohmander.com/ERD2008/ERD2008.pdf - Lohmander, P., Lägg inte ned Svensk skogsindustri
på grund av virkesbrist, Krönika, Nordisk Papper
och Massa 8/2007http//www.Lohmander.com/kronika_
NPM07.pdf
118Suggestions for the future
- We need a special commission with this task
- Create a coordinated development plan for the
forest-, energy- and car- industry sectors in
Sweden that is rational with respect to total
economics, employment and the environment. - The comission should report directly to the
government, once a year, 2009 2011, and have a
budget of 50 MSEK (5 M EURO). - Organization Peter Lohmander (Chair), The Forest
Sector, The Energy Sector, The Car Industry and
the Department of the Environment.
11907. Integrated regional study and risk management
120The optimal joint management strategy of the
forests, the energy plants and the forest
industry mills will be determined in a region.
Three coorporations are involvedE.ON Sweden,
Holmen and Sveaskog.
121Integrated regional study and risk
management Preliminary map of the locations of
the main energy plants (red filled circles) and
forest industry mills (black filled squares) that
will be included in the total optimization.
Coorporations E.ON Sweden, Holmen and
Sveaskog.
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124Risk is an important property of the real world!
Where do we have risk?
- Future market prices of energy and raw materials.
- The properties of the capital market.
- Future environental regulations.
- Technological options and future costs.
125Consequences for optimal strategies
- The management strategy must be optimal when we
consider risk. - Flexible strategies must be defined and
optimized! - Long term predictions and detailed long term
plans are not relevant in a world influenced by
risk. - Adaptive optimization, stochastic dynamic
programming and stochastic optimal control are
the only relevant approaches.
126Stochastic Dynamic Optimization of Forest
Industry Company Management INFORMS Internationa
l Meeting 2007 Puerto Rico
- Peter Lohmander
- Professor
- SLU
- Umea, SE-901 83, Sweden,
- http//www.Lohmander.com
- Version 2007-06-21
Example
127Example
128Abstract
- Forest industry production, capacity and harvest
levels are optimized. - Adaptive full system optimization is necessary
for consistent results. - The stochastic dynamic programming problem of a
complete forest industry company is solved. The
raw material stock level and the main product
prices are state variables. In each state and at
each stage, a linear programming profit
maximization problem of the forest company is
solved. Parameters from the Swedish forest
industry are used as illustration.
Example
129Question
- How should these activities in a typical forest
industry company be optimized and coordinated in
the presence of stochastic markets? - Pulp, paper and liner production and sales,
- Sawn wood production and sales,
- Raw material procurement and sales,
- Harvest operations
- Transport
Example
130Example
131Optimal stock and purchase policy with stochastic
external deliveries in different markets
- 12th Symposium for Systems Analysis in Forest
Resources, Burlington, Vermont, USA, September
5-8, 2006 - Peter Lohmander
- Professor of Forest Management and Economic
Optimization, Swedish University of Agricultural
Sciences, Faculty of Forestry, Dept. of Forest
Economics, 901 83 Umea, Sweden,
http//www.lohmander.com/ - Version 060830
Example
132Optimally controlled stochastic stock path under
monopsony when the entering stock level state is
6.
Example
133Optimally controlled stochastic stock path under
perfect raw material market when the entering
stock level state is 6.
Example
134Example
135Traktbanken (utdrag)
Example
13608. Conclusions and plans for the future
137International Project Development
- Title (prel.)
- Rational European Forest Management with
Increasing Bioenergy Demand and Risk - Coordination
- Sweden (Peter Lohmander)
- Cooperators (prel.)
- France, Germany, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland
138Future discussions
- Peter Lohmander is organizing the conference
stream Optimal Forest Management with Increasing
Bioenergy Demand within The 23rd European
Conference on Operational Research (EURO XXIII),
July 5-8, 2009, Bonn, Germany.
http//www.lohmander.com/Bonn2009/Bonn2009.pdf - Let us continue our discussions and meet there!
13909. Thanks to E.On
140My warmest Thanks to E.ON Sweden for economic
support to the project Economic forest
production with consideration of the forest- and
energy- industries!
- Peter Lohmander
- Professor of Forest Management and Economic
Optimization, Swedish University of Agricultural
Sciences - http//www.Lohmander.com
- Peter_at_Lohmander.com
14110. References
- http//www.lohmander.com/Information/Ref.htm
- More options
- Go to
- http//www.Lohmander.com
- Click on
- Economic Optimization Software,
- Courses and Conferences,
- or Information
142Some of the latest references
- Kärr, P (Interview with Peter Lohmander)
Skogsprofessor tonar ned Skogsstyrelsens larm
"Det är inget katastrofläge", Västerbottningen -
Jord och Skog, 7 Juni, 2007, http//www.lohmander.
com/information/Vasterbottningen070607.doc - Lohmander, P., Stochastic Dynamic Optimization of
Forest Industry Company Management,
INFORMS International Meeting 2007, Puerto Rico,
Power Point Presentation, http//www.Lohmander.com
/SDO.ppt - Lohmander, P., A Stochastic Differential
(Difference) Game Model With an LP Subroutine for
Mixed and Pure Strategy Optimization,
INFORMS International Meeting 2007, Puerto Rico,
Power Point Presentation, http//www.Lohmander.com
/SDG.ppt
143- Lohmander, P., Adaptive Optimization of Forest
Management in a Stochastic World, in Weintraub A.
et al (Editors), Handbook of Operations Research
in Natural Resources, Springer, Springer Science,
International Series in Operations Research and
Management Science, New York, USA, pp 525-544,
2007 http//www.amazon.ca/gp/reader/0387718141/re
fsib_dp_pt/701-0734992-1741115reader-link - Lohmander, P., Fatta beslut med hjälp av
spelteori, Hemvärnet - Nationella
Skyddsstyrkorna, 2007-10-26http//tidningenhemvar
net.se/http//webnews.textalk.com/se/article.php?
id281997 - Mohammadi, L.S., Lohmander, P., Stumpage Prices
in the Iranian Caspian Forests, Asian Journal of
Plant Sciences, 6 (7) 1027-1036, 2007, ISSN
1682-3974, 2007 Asian Network for Scientific
Information, http//ansijournals.com/ajps/2007/102
7-1036.pdfhttp//www.Lohmander.com/MoLo2007.pdf
144- Ekman, S-O., (Interview with Peter Lohmander)
Fabriken läggs ner helt i onödan, Gefle Dagblad,
2007-10-30http//www.gd.se/start.jsphttp//www.g
d.se/Article.jsp?article116927 - Lohmander, P., Skapa inte arbetslöshet när
industrikapaciteten borde expanderas! (SVT
Nyheter, 2007-10-30, 19.10)http//svt.se/svt/play
/video.jsp?a379740 - Lohmander, P., Ökad avverkning skulle kunna rädda
Norrsundet, Nordic Paper Journal,
2007-10-30http//www.papernet.se/iuware.aspx?page
id395ssoid69620
145- Lohmander, P., Fabriken läggs ned helt i onödan,
Skogsindustrierna, 2007-10-31http//www.skogsindu
strierna.org/litiuminformation/site/page.asp?Page
10IncPage578Destination227IncPage2236Destin
ation2226PKNews5935 - Lohmander, P., Norrsundet läggs ner helt i
onödan, Nordisk Papper och Massa,
2007-11-01http//www.branschnyheter.se/article114
97.php - Lohmander, P., Lägg inte ned Svensk skogsindustri
på grund av virkesbrist, Krönika, Nordisk Papper
och Massa 8/2007http//www.Lohmander.com/kronika_
NPM07.pdf
146- Lohmander, P,. Energy Forum, Stockholm, 6-7
February 2008, Conference program with links to
report and software by Peter Lohmanderhttp//www
.energyforum.com/events/conferences/2008/c802/prog
ram.phphttp//www.lohmander.com/EF2008/EF2008Lohm
ander.htm - Lohmander, P., Ekonomiskt rationell dynamisk
utveckling för skogen, skogsindustrin och
energiindustrin i Sverige (Manuscript 2008-03-03)
http//www.Lohmander.com/ERD2008/ERD2008.pdf - Lohmander, P., Ekonomiskt rationell utveckling
för skogs- och energisektorn i Sverige, Nordisk
Papper och Massa, Nr 3, 2008
147- Lohmander, P., Mohammadi, S., Optimal Continuous
Cover Forest Management in an Uneven-Aged Forest
in the North of Iran, Journal of Applied Sciences
8(11), 2008 http//ansijournals.com/jas/2008/1995-
2007.pdfhttp//www.Lohmander.com/LoMoOCC.pdf - Mohammadi, L.S., Lohmander, P., A game theory
approach to the Iranian forest industry raw
material market, Caspian Journal of Environmental
Sciences, Vol 6, No1, pp. 59-71, 2008
http//research.guilan.ac.ir/cjes/.papers/969.pdf
http//www.Lohmander.com/MoLoAGTA.pdf - Lohmander, P., (Eng Peter Lohmander (in white
jacket and black tie) explains that the forest
growth strongly exceeds the harvest. Lohmander
motivates increased harvesting and increased
capacity expansion in bioenergy plants and the
forest products industry), Swe Skogsavverkningen
kan ökas enligt forskare! (Swedish Television,
News, 2008-05-29, 19.15)http//svt.se/svt/play/vi
deo.jsp?a1158529
148- Lohmander, P., Guidelines for Economically
Rational and Coordinated Dynamic Development of
the Forest and Bio Energy Sectors with CO2
constraints, Proceedings from the 16th European
Biomass Conference and Exhibition, Valencia,
Spain, 02-06 June, 2008 (In the version in the
link, below, an earlier misprint has been
corrected. ) http//www.Lohmander.com/Valencia2008
.pdf - Lohmander, P., Economically Optimal Joint
Strategy for Sustainable Bioenergy and Forest
Sectors with CO2 Constraints, European Biomass
Forum, Exploring Future Markets, Financing and
Technology for Power Generation, CD, Marcus Evans
Ltd, Amsterdam, 16th-17th June, 2008
http//www.Lohmander.com/Amsterdam2008.ppt - Lohmander, P., Ekonomiskt rationell utveckling
för skogs- och energisektorn, Nordisk Energi, Nr.
4, 2008
149- Lohmander, P., Tools for optimal coordination of
CCS, power industry capacity expansion and bio
energy raw material production and harvesting,
2nd Annual EMISSIONS REDUCTION FORUM -
Establishing Effective CO2, NOx, SOx Mitigation
Strategies for the Power Industry, CD, Marcus
Evans Ltd, Madrid, Spain, 29th 30th September
2008 http//www.lohmander.com/Madrid08/Madrid_2008
_Lohmander.ppt - Lohmander, P., Optimal CCS, Carbon Capture and
Storage, Under Risk, International Seminars in
Life Sciences, UPV, Universidad Politécnica de
Valencia, Thursday 2008-10-16 - http//www.Lohmander.com/OptCCS/OptCCS.ppt
150Thank you for listening!Here you may reach me in
the future
- Peter Lohmander
- Professor of Forest Management and Economic
Optimization, - SLU, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences,
Faculty of Forest Sciences, - Dept. of Forest Economics, SE-901 83 Umea, Sweden
- http//www.Lohmander.com
- Peter_at_Lohmander.com
- peter.lohmander_at_sekon.slu.se