Economic%20forest%20production%20with%20consideration%20of%20the%20forest-%20and%20energy-%20industries%20%20Presentation%20at%20the%20E.On%20Conference%20in%20Malm - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Economic%20forest%20production%20with%20consideration%20of%20the%20forest-%20and%20energy-%20industries%20%20Presentation%20at%20the%20E.On%20Conference%20in%20Malm

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Title: Economic%20forest%20production%20with%20consideration%20of%20the%20forest-%20and%20energy-%20industries%20%20Presentation%20at%20the%20E.On%20Conference%20in%20Malm


1
Economic forest production with consideration of
the forest- and energy- industries
Presentation at the E.On Conference in Malmö,
Sweden, 2008-10-30
  • Peter Lohmander
  • Professor of Forest Management and Economic
    Optimization
  • SLU, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
  • Umea, Sweden
  • http//www.Lohmander.com

2
Structure of the presentation
  • 01. Objectives
  • 02. Key questions
  • 03. Recent developments in the world
  • 04. The present state
  • 05. Forests, CO2, CCS and risk management
  • 06. The forest harvest level and industrial
    expansion
  • 07. Integrated regional study and risk
    management
  • 08. Conclusions and plans for the future
  • 09. Thanks to E.On
  • 10. References

3
01. Objectives
  • To describe the analyzed system.
  • To describe the most important problems.
  • To describe and motivate selected solution
    approaches and obtained results.
  • To serve as a starting point in an extended
    discussion of important problems, solutions
    approaches and future cooperation.

4
02. Key questions
  • How should we define the system to be analyzed?
  • Spatial definition?
  • Time horizon?
  • Included organizations?
  • Uncertainty, risk or certainty?
  • Objective function?
  • How should we manage the analyzed system in order
    to optimize the total result?

5
03. Recent developments in the world
6
Recent developments in the world with very strong
impacts on the key questions
  • A. The Financial Crisis
  • Extreme risk and uncertainty in the general
    global economic system.
  • B. The Global Warming
  • The CO2 emission level has become the dominating
    environmental concern in the world.
  • C. The CCS Technology
  • - Extremely promising method that can handle the
    global warming problem. Strong support from E.C.,
    British Gov. and several large energy
    coorporations.

7
04. The present state
8
Sweden is a country that is dominated by the
forests.
9
The Initial Physical State
  • The information from the Swedish Board of
    Forestry (Yearbook of Forest Statistics and
    Internet) clearly shows that the stock of wood in
    the Swedish forest has increased very much since
    1920. This is true for pine, spruce and birch.
  • Source
  • The Swedish Board of Forestry 2007-10-26
  • http//www.svo.se/episerver4/templates/SFileListin
    g.aspx?id16583

10
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11
  • Source www.svo.se 2008-01-02

12
Age distribution in the county of Gävleborg
(2001-2005). Thousands of hectares in different
age classes (years).
13
From the forest to the energy plants and forest
industry mills
14
A harvester
15
A forwarder
16
A harvester in action
17
After harvesting and before forwarding
18
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19
GROT prepared for energy production
20
A liner mill consuming wood of low dimensions.
SCA.
21
A saw mill consuming wood of larger dimensions
and high quality. SCA.
22
A flexible combined heat and power plant
consuming wood, GROT, peat and other raw
materials. E.ON Sweden.
23
  • Energy in Sweden
  • Bioenergy in Sweden
  • Biomass flows in Sweden
  • Distribution of the forest harvest with respect
    to forest industry, energi industry, stock level
    changes and others

24
Total Energy Supply, Sweden (2006)
Nuclear Power, 194 TWh
Hydro Energy, 62 TWh
Bio Energy incl. Peat, 116 TWh
Oil, 201 TWh
25
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26
  • Source Swedish Energy Agency "Energy in Sweden,
    Facts and Figures 2005"

27
Source Swedish Energy Agency "Energy in Sweden, Facts and Figures 2005"
28
  • Source Swedish Energy Agency "Energy in Sweden,
    Facts and Figures 2005"

29
Biomass flows in the Swedish Forest Sector 2004
(translated)
  • http//www.svo.se/episerver4/dokument/sks/Statisti
    k/dokumenten/Produktion/Tradbransle/ProjTradbr/Bio
    massaflöden20i20svensk20skogsnäring202004-2(fö
    rf20P-O20Nilsson,20prof20emer).pdf

30
Increase of the forest stock
Energy
Raw material left in the forest
Forest Industry Products
31
Increase of the forest stock
Energy
Raw material left in the forest
Forest Industry Products
32
Increase of the forest stock
Partial harvest
Final fellings
Commercial Thinnings
33
05. Forests, CO2, CCS and risk management
34
Optimal dynamic control of the forest resource
with changing energy demand functions and
valuation of CO2 storage Presentation at the
ConferenceThe European Forest-based Sector
Bio-Responses to Address New Climate and Energy
Challenges?Nancy, France, November 6-8, 2008
  • Peter Lohmander
  • Professor of Forest Management and Economic
    Optimization
  • SLU, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
  • Umea, Sweden
  • http//www.Lohmander.com

35
Structure of the presentation
  • 1. Introduction to rational use of the forest
    when we consider CO2 and energy production
  • 2. Optimal dynamic control of the forest
    resource with changing energy demand functions
    and valuation of CO2 storage
  • 3. Optimal CCS, Carbon Capture and Storage,
    Under Risk
  • 4. Conclusions

36
1. Introduction to rational use of the forest
when we consider CO2 and energy production
37
The role of the forest?
  • The best way to reduce the CO2 in the atmosphere
    may be to increase harvesting of the presently
    existing forests (!), to produce energy with CCS
    and to increase forest production in the new
    forest generations.
  • We capture and store more CO2!

38
The role of the forest?
  • The best way to reduce the CO2 in the atmosphere
    may be to increase harvesting of the presently
    existing forests (!), to produce energy with CCS
    and to increase forest production in the new
    forest generations.
  • We capture and store more CO2!

39
CCS, Carbon Capture and Storage, has
already become the main future
emission reduction method of the fossile fuel
energy industry
Energy plant with CO2 capture and separation
Oil field
Coal mine
Natural gas
Permanent storage of CO2
40
BBC World News 2008-10-17
  • The British government declares that the CO2
    emissions will be reduced by 80 by 2050!
  • CCS is the method to be used in combination with
    fossile fuels such as coal.

41
Reference to CCS in the energy industry and EU
policy
  • 2nd Annual EMISSIONS REDUCTION FORUM -
    Establishing Effective CO2, NOx, SOx Mitigation
    Strategies for the Power Industry, CD, Marcus
    Evans Ltd, Madrid, Spain, 29th 30th September
    2008
  • The CD (above) includes presentations where
    several dominating European energy companies show
    how they develop and use CCS and where the
    European Commission gives the general European
    emission and energy policy perspective.
  • Conference programme
  • http//www.lohmander.com/Madrid08/MadridProg08.pdf

42
  • Lohmander, P., Guidelines for Economically
    Rational and Coordinated Dynamic Development of
    the Forest and Bio Energy Sectors with CO2
    constraints, Proceedings from the 16th European
    Biomass Conference and Exhibition, Valencia,
    Spain, 02-06 June, 2008 (In the version in the
    link, below, an earlier misprint has been
    corrected. ) http//www.Lohmander.com/Valencia2008
    .pdf
  • Lohmander, P., Economically Optimal Joint
    Strategy for Sustainable Bioenergy and Forest
    Sectors with CO2 Constraints, European Biomass
    Forum, Exploring Future Markets, Financing and
    Technology for Power Generation, CD, Marcus Evans
    Ltd, Amsterdam, 16th-17th June, 2008
    http//www.Lohmander.com/Amsterdam2008.ppt

43
  • Lohmander, P., Tools for optimal coordination of
    CCS, power industry capacity expansion and bio
    energy raw material production and harvesting,
    2nd Annual EMISSIONS REDUCTION FORUM -
    Establishing Effective CO2, NOx, SOx Mitigation
    Strategies for the Power Industry, CD, Marcus
    Evans Ltd, Madrid, Spain, 29th 30th September
    2008
  • http//www.lohmander.com/Madrid08/Madrid_2008_Lohm
    ander.ppt
  • Lohmander, P., Optimal CCS, Carbon Capture and
    Storage, Under Risk, International Seminars in
    Life Sciences, UPV, Universidad Politécnica de
    Valencia, Thursday 2008-10-16
  • http//www.Lohmander.com/OptCCS/OptCCS.ppt

44
Energy plant with CO2 capture and separation
How to reduce the CO2 level in the atmosphere,
not only to decrease the emission of CO2
CO2
Permanent storage of CO2
45
The role of the forest in the CO2 and energy
system
  • The following six pictures show that it is
    necessary to intensify the use of the forest for
    energy production in combination with CCS in
    order to reduce the CO2 in atmosphere!
  • All figures and graphs have been simplified as
    much as possible, keeping the big picture
    correct, in order to make the main point obvious.
  • In all cases, we keep the total energy production
    constant.

46
CO2
The present situation.
CO2 increase in the atmosphere 5-1 4
5
1
1
4
Coal, oil, gas
0
Permanent storage of CO2
47
CO2
If we do not use the forest for energy production
but use it as a carbon sink. Before the forest
has reached equilibrium, this happens
CO2 increase in the atmosphere 5-1 4
5
1
5
Coal, oil, gas
0
Permanent storage of CO2
48
CO2
If we do not use the forest for energy production
but use it as a carbon sink. When the forest has
reached equilibrium, this happens
CO2 increase in the atmosphere 51-1 5
5
1
1
5
Coal, oil, gas
0
Permanent storage of CO2
49
CO2
If we use CCS with 80 efficiency and let the
forest grow until it reaches equilibrium.
CO2 increase in the atmosphere 11-1 1
1
1
1
5
Coal, oil, gas
4
Permanent storage of CO2
50
CO2
If we use CCS with 80 efficiency and use the
forest with traditional low intensity
harvesting and silviculture.
CO2 increase in the atmosphere 1-1 0
1
1
1
4
Coal, oil, gas
4
Permanent storage of CO2
51
CO2
If we use CCS with 80 efficiency and use the
forest with increased harvesting and high
intensity silviculture.
CO2 increase in the atmosphere 1-2 -1
1
2
2
CO2 DECREASES!
3
Coal, oil, gas
4
Permanent storage of CO2
52
General conclusions
  • The best way to reduce the CO2 in the atmosphere
    may be to increase harvesting of the presently
    existing forests (!), to produce energy with CCS
    and to increase forest production in the new
    forest generations.
  • We capture and store more CO2!

53
2. Optimal dynamic control of the forest
resource with changing energy demand functions
and valuation of CO2 storage
54
The optimal control derivations and the software
are found here
  • Lohmander, P., Optimal resource control model
    General continuous time optimal control model of
    a forest resource, comparative dynamics and CO2
    consideration effects, Seminar at SLU, Umea,
    Sweden, 2008-09-18
  • http//www.lohmander.com/CM/CMLohmander.ppt
  • Software
  • http//www.lohmander.com/CM/CM.htm

55
Economic Valuation of the Production of Energy
and Other Industrial Products
Economic valuation of CO2 storage in the natural
resource
The Total Economic Result (Present Value)
The Stock Level
The Control Level
56
Initial stock level
The change of the stock level during a
marginal time interval
Terminal stock level
57
The forest stock level has increased very much
in Sweden during 80 years!
Stock
V0
Time
0
58
The stored CO2 is rewarded. The stored CO2 is
not rewarded.
If the forest owner gets paid for the CO2 stored
in the forest, it becomes optimal for the forest
owner to harvest less and increase the stock
level. Still, it may be even better for society
to harvest more, decrease the wood stock and use
CCS to store the CO2.
59
3. Optimal CCS, Carbon Capture and Storage,
Under Risk
60
The stochastic optimal control derivations of CCS
are found here
  • Lohmander, P., Optimal CCS, Carbon Capture and
    Storage, Under Risk, International Seminars in
    Life Sciences, Universidad Politécnica de
    Valencia, Thursday 2008-10-16
  • http//www.Lohmander.com/OptCCS/OptCCS.ppt

61
Optimal CCS, Carbon Capture and Storage, Under
Risk
The objective function is the total present value
of CO2 storage minus CCS costs.
u control CCS level
x The total storage level of CO2
Discounting factor
62
The controlled storage
  • A stochastic differential equation

Expected CO2 leakage.
Change of the CO2 storage level.
The CO2 storage level is to some extent affected
by stochastic leakage and other stochastic
events. Z standard Wiener process.
Control CCS level.
63
The optimal CCS objective function for different
risk levels. The details are found in the
reference.
V(x,t)
t
x
64
4. Conclusions
65
Optimal Forest management conclusions
  • If the forest owner gets paid for the CO2 stored
    in the forest, it becomes optimal for the forest
    owner to harvest less and increase the stock
    level. Still, it may be even better for society
    to harvest more, decrease the present wood stock
    and use CCS to store the CO2.
  • The best way to reduce the CO2 in the atmosphere
    may be to increase harvesting of the presently
    existing forests (!), to produce energy with CCS
    and to increase forest production in the new
    forest generations.

66
Optimal CCS Conclusions
  • A mathematical approach to optimal CCS control
    has been developed that can handle risk.
  • Possible leakage is an important issue that has
    to be carefully investigated in the future.
  • It is important that the future management
    decisions are based on a decision model
    consistent with the structure of this model and
    that the parameter values are carefully estimated
    before practical management decisions are
    calculated.

67
06. The forest harvest level and industrial
expansion
68
  • Operations Research with Economic Optimization
  • Raw material Perspective
  • Total Perspective I
  • Total Perspective II

69
Raw Material Perspective
The present value as a function of the time of
the final felling, t
Value of the forest stand
Present value of the stand and the land
Discounting factor
Value of the bare land
70
Present Value (SEK/Hectare)
Number of Years from the Present
Figure 1. The Present Value EXP(- 0.03t)(20000
1000t 2000)
71
The Raw Material Perspective and Optimization
  • You may instantly calculate the economically
    optimal decisions, from a raw material
    perspective, using software available from the
    Internet
  • http//www.lohmander.com/program/Faust_Slut/InFaus
    t3.html
  • http//www.lohmander.com/program/Stump02/InStump02
    2.html

72
Web Software for Economic Optimization from a
Raw Material Perspective
Stock level
Growth
Net Price
Net Price Growth
Land Value
Interest Rate()
Optimize!
73
Optimal Results
Optimal Harvest Year
Optimal Present Value
74
Harvest Year Present Value
Present Value Difference
75
Web Software for Economic Optimization from a
Raw Material Perspective
Web Software for Economic Optimization from a
Raw Material Perspective
Stock level
Growth
Net Price
Net Price Growth
Land Value
Interest Rate()
Optimize!
76
Optimal Results
Optimal Harvest Year
Optimal Present Value
77
Harvest Year Present Value
Present Value Difference
78
Observations
  • From a pure raw material perspective, you may
    show that a very large part of the Swedish forest
    should be instantly harvested, even if the real
    rate of interest is not higher than 3.
  • If the real rate of interest exceeds 3, you
    should if possible harvest even more.
  • If the growth rate of the next forest generation
    increases, you should also harvest the present
    forest earlier.

79
A large part of the forest is much older than the
optimal harvest age
Age distribution in the county of Gävleborg
(2001-2005). Thousands of hectares in different
age classes (years).
80
Total perspective I
81
Stock
V0
Time
0
82
h0 lt g
h1 gt g
h2 g
83
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84
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85
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86
Appendix 1 General proof that the total
economic value is a strictly increasing function
of the production (and capacity) level in the
next industry generation (as as long as the time
when the capacity will be utilized is not
sufficiently short to give extraordinary
capacity costs.) This approach represents Total
Perspective I.
87
Derivations and parameters (I)
Rate of interest r 0,06
Growth (now) g 106
Growth (future) g 106
  t1 5
Stock (now) v0 3000
Harvest (before t1) h0 86
  z0 1
  z1 1
  z2 1
 
88
Web software for Total Perspective I
http//www.lohmander.com/EF2008/EF2008.htm
89
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90
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91
vfuture h1 t2 totval
3000 106 inf 1680
3000 108 55 1703
3000 110 30 1718
3000 112 21,6 1727
3000 114 17,5 1732
3000 116 15 1735
92
Observations
  • Even if we do not accept to decrease the stock
    level below the very high level of today, we
    should strongly increase harvesting during a
    considerable time interval.
  • In this first derivation, the improved growth
    rate in new plantations has not been considered.

93
vfuture h1 t2 totval
2500 106 inf 1680
2500 116 65 1800
2500 126 35 1886
2500 136 25 1939
2500 146 20 1973
2500 156 17 1997
94
Observations
  • If we are prepared to adjust the stock level to
    the stock level of the year 1985, (approximately
    2 500 Mm3sk), we should increase harvesting very
    much during a long time period.
  • Then, the total economic value strongly improves.
  • In this derivation, the improved growth rate in
    new plantations has not been considered.

95
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96
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97
Total perspective II
98
  • Appendix 2
  • Derivations of exlicit functions for the stock
    levels at different points in time under the
    influence of changing harvest levels and
    production in dynamically introduced new
    plantations.
  • This approach represents Total Perspective II.

99
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100
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101
How rapidly will new forests grow?
  • Example Pine
  • Director of silviculture Dr. Per Persson, SCA
    says
  • Pinus contorta on average grows 40 faster than
    Scots pine.
  • Source Jägmästarnas förenings höstexkursion,
    Skogsakademikern, Årgång 21, Nr 4, 2007

102
How rapidly will new forests grow?
  • Example Spruce
  • Dr. Bo Karlsson, Skogforsk
  • Improved spruce plants already today give 15
    better growth than naturally regenerated plants,
    but the potential is even higher. It should not
    be impossible to obtain up to 40 growth
    improvements.
  • Source Skogsvårdsstyrelsens seminarium "Granen i
    fokus" i Borås,
  • Tidningen Skogsvärden, Nr 4, 2005
  • http//www.skogssallskapet.se/skogsvarden/2005_4/
    sv13.php

103
How rapidly will new forests grow?
  • Example Intensive plantations
  • - Treat forestry seriously! Start with
    intensive forest management! These are the words
    of Fredrik Klang, district manager at Sveaskog,
    Västra Götaland.He says that a production
    increase of 20 procent is easy to obtain if you
    really want to. With fertilization, the
    production could even increase by 150.
  • - Perhaps we can use 2-5 of the land for more
    intensive production. If 10 of the forest land
    is used for intensive production (that is the
    size of the area today set aside for
    environmental purposes), this would improve the
    national forest production by 15. - This, in
    turn, would improve employment, the environment
    and the growth.
  • Source Skogsvårdsstyrelsens seminarium "Granen i
    fokus" i Borås,
  • Tidningen Skogsvärden, Nr 4, 2005
  • http//www.skogssallskapet.se/skogsvarden/2005_4/
    sv13.php

104
If harvested areas are replanted with more
rapidly growing seedlings, the stock path
becomes strictly convex (during time periods
with constant harvesting)
105
Derivations and parameters (II)
Rate of interest r 0,06
Growth (now) g0 106
Growth (new seedlings) g1 126
  t1 5
Stock (now) v0 3000
Harvest (before t1) h0 86
  z0 1
  z1 1
  z2 1
  ATKvot 80
106
Web software for Total Perspective II
http//www.lohmander.com/EF2008/EFchange2008.htm
107
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108
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109
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110
h1 t2 totval vfuture
116 65 1806 3055
126 35 1906 2666
136 25 1966 2586
146 20 2004 2556
156 17 2029 2541
111
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112
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113
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114
Observations
  • In this derivation, a growth improvement of 19
    in future forest generations has been assumed.
    (126/106 -1 19).
  • The maximum potential future growth, 40 or much
    more with intensive management, has not at all
    been utilized or assumed.
  • Still, we should strongly increase harvesting
    during a long period.
  • For instance, we may harvest 136 Miljon m3sk per
    year during 20 years. This period starts in five
    years. 25 years from now, we will have 2.6
    billion cubic metres in the forest (which is the
    same as the stock level in 1985). Harvesting
    increases by 58!!!
  • The total economic value strongly improves.
  • Industrial capacity of different kinds that
    utilize forest raw material should be very much
    expanded.
  • The employment improves for a long time.

115
New observations
  • The forest policy and regulations are not
    optimally chosen with respect to the economy of
    Sweden, employment and the environment.
  • If we want to get the best possible forest sector
    and energy policy, coordinated activities of a
    new kind are necessary.

116
Eon investsts billions in Sverige
  • 2008-01-02  0741
  • The new director of E.ON Nordic, Håkan Buskhe,
    informs about large investments in Sweden during
    the next years.
  • Between 2007 and 2013, the investment plans
    represent almost
  • 50 billion SEK (5 billion Euro) (Dagens
    Industri). Between 2007 and 2010, we are
    talking about 37 billion SEK, Buskhe says.With
    the investments in nuclear power, where Eon
    partly owns all ten Swedish reactors, a CCP power
    station in Malmö, wind power and four bioenergy
    power stations, the new investments will give 8,5
    terawatt hours. This roughly corresponds to the
    two nuclear reactors that have been shut down in
    Barsebäck.
  • www.realtid.se

117
General observations
  • The harvest level in Sweden is absolutely not too
    high!
  • Sweden would, in every way, benefit if the
    harvest level strongly increased during a long
    time period.
  • We do not need the expensive roundwood import
    from Russia.
  • We should not shut down the pulp mills.
  • The unemployment in the Gävle region is quite
    unneccesary.
  • The forest industry and the energy industry
    utilizing raw material from the forest should be
    strongly expanded.
  • Sources
  • Lohmander, P., Ekonomiskt rationell utveckling
    för skogs- och energisektorn i Sverige, Nordisk
    Papper och Massa, Nr 3, 40-41, 2008,
    http//www.Lohmander.com/ERD2008/ERD2008.pdf
  • Lohmander, P., Lägg inte ned Svensk skogsindustri
    på grund av virkesbrist, Krönika, Nordisk Papper
    och Massa 8/2007http//www.Lohmander.com/kronika_
    NPM07.pdf

118
Suggestions for the future
  • We need a special commission with this task
  • Create a coordinated development plan for the
    forest-, energy- and car- industry sectors in
    Sweden that is rational with respect to total
    economics, employment and the environment.
  • The comission should report directly to the
    government, once a year, 2009 2011, and have a
    budget of 50 MSEK (5 M EURO).
  • Organization Peter Lohmander (Chair), The Forest
    Sector, The Energy Sector, The Car Industry and
    the Department of the Environment.

119
07. Integrated regional study and risk management
120
The optimal joint management strategy of the
forests, the energy plants and the forest
industry mills will be determined in a region.
Three coorporations are involvedE.ON Sweden,
Holmen and Sveaskog.
121
Integrated regional study and risk
management Preliminary map of the locations of
the main energy plants (red filled circles) and
forest industry mills (black filled squares) that
will be included in the total optimization.
Coorporations E.ON Sweden, Holmen and
Sveaskog.
122
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123
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124
Risk is an important property of the real world!
Where do we have risk?
  • Future market prices of energy and raw materials.
  • The properties of the capital market.
  • Future environental regulations.
  • Technological options and future costs.

125
Consequences for optimal strategies
  • The management strategy must be optimal when we
    consider risk.
  • Flexible strategies must be defined and
    optimized!
  • Long term predictions and detailed long term
    plans are not relevant in a world influenced by
    risk.
  • Adaptive optimization, stochastic dynamic
    programming and stochastic optimal control are
    the only relevant approaches.

126
Stochastic Dynamic Optimization of Forest
Industry Company Management INFORMS Internationa
l Meeting 2007 Puerto Rico
  • Peter Lohmander
  • Professor
  • SLU
  • Umea, SE-901 83, Sweden,
  • http//www.Lohmander.com
  • Version 2007-06-21

Example
127
Example
128
Abstract
  • Forest industry production, capacity and harvest
    levels are optimized.
  • Adaptive full system optimization is necessary
    for consistent results.
  • The stochastic dynamic programming problem of a
    complete forest industry company is solved. The
    raw material stock level and the main product
    prices are state variables. In each state and at
    each stage, a linear programming profit
    maximization problem of the forest company is
    solved. Parameters from the Swedish forest
    industry are used as illustration.

Example
129
Question
  • How should these activities in a typical forest
    industry company be optimized and coordinated in
    the presence of stochastic markets?
  • Pulp, paper and liner production and sales,
  • Sawn wood production and sales,
  • Raw material procurement and sales,
  • Harvest operations
  • Transport

Example
130
Example
131
Optimal stock and purchase policy with stochastic
external deliveries in different markets
  • 12th Symposium for Systems Analysis in Forest
    Resources, Burlington, Vermont, USA, September
    5-8, 2006
  • Peter Lohmander
  • Professor of Forest Management and Economic
    Optimization, Swedish University of Agricultural
    Sciences, Faculty of Forestry, Dept. of Forest
    Economics, 901 83 Umea, Sweden,
    http//www.lohmander.com/
  • Version 060830

Example
132
Optimally controlled stochastic stock path under
monopsony when the entering stock level state is
6.
Example
133
Optimally controlled stochastic stock path under
perfect raw material market when the entering
stock level state is 6.
Example
134
Example
135
Traktbanken (utdrag)
Example
136
08. Conclusions and plans for the future
137
International Project Development
  • Title (prel.)
  • Rational European Forest Management with
    Increasing Bioenergy Demand and Risk
  • Coordination
  • Sweden (Peter Lohmander)
  • Cooperators (prel.)
  • France, Germany, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland

138
Future discussions
  • Peter Lohmander is organizing the conference
    stream Optimal Forest Management with Increasing
    Bioenergy Demand within The 23rd European
    Conference on Operational Research (EURO XXIII),
    July 5-8, 2009, Bonn, Germany.
    http//www.lohmander.com/Bonn2009/Bonn2009.pdf
  • Let us continue our discussions and meet there!

139
09. Thanks to E.On
140
My warmest Thanks to E.ON Sweden for economic
support to the project Economic forest
production with consideration of the forest- and
energy- industries!
  • Peter Lohmander 
  • Professor of Forest Management and Economic
    Optimization, Swedish University of Agricultural
    Sciences 
  • http//www.Lohmander.com
  • Peter_at_Lohmander.com

141
10. References
  • http//www.lohmander.com/Information/Ref.htm
  • More options
  • Go to
  • http//www.Lohmander.com
  • Click on
  • Economic Optimization Software,
  • Courses and Conferences,
  • or Information

142
Some of the latest references
  • Kärr, P (Interview with Peter Lohmander)
    Skogsprofessor tonar ned Skogsstyrelsens larm
    "Det är inget katastrofläge", Västerbottningen -
    Jord och Skog, 7 Juni, 2007, http//www.lohmander.
    com/information/Vasterbottningen070607.doc
  • Lohmander, P., Stochastic Dynamic Optimization of
    Forest Industry Company Management,
    INFORMS International Meeting 2007, Puerto Rico,
    Power Point Presentation, http//www.Lohmander.com
    /SDO.ppt
  • Lohmander, P., A Stochastic Differential
    (Difference) Game Model With an LP Subroutine for
    Mixed and Pure Strategy Optimization,
    INFORMS International Meeting 2007, Puerto Rico,
    Power Point Presentation, http//www.Lohmander.com
    /SDG.ppt

143
  • Lohmander, P., Adaptive Optimization of Forest
    Management in a Stochastic World, in Weintraub A.
    et al (Editors), Handbook of Operations Research
    in Natural Resources, Springer, Springer Science,
    International Series in Operations Research and
    Management Science, New York, USA, pp 525-544,
    2007 http//www.amazon.ca/gp/reader/0387718141/re
    fsib_dp_pt/701-0734992-1741115reader-link
  • Lohmander, P., Fatta beslut med hjälp av
    spelteori, Hemvärnet - Nationella
    Skyddsstyrkorna, 2007-10-26http//tidningenhemvar
    net.se/http//webnews.textalk.com/se/article.php?
    id281997
  • Mohammadi, L.S., Lohmander, P., Stumpage Prices
    in the Iranian Caspian Forests, Asian Journal of
    Plant Sciences, 6 (7) 1027-1036, 2007, ISSN
    1682-3974, 2007 Asian Network for Scientific
    Information, http//ansijournals.com/ajps/2007/102
    7-1036.pdfhttp//www.Lohmander.com/MoLo2007.pdf

144
  • Ekman, S-O., (Interview with Peter Lohmander)
    Fabriken läggs ner helt i onödan, Gefle Dagblad,
    2007-10-30http//www.gd.se/start.jsphttp//www.g
    d.se/Article.jsp?article116927
  • Lohmander, P., Skapa inte arbetslöshet när
    industrikapaciteten borde expanderas! (SVT
    Nyheter, 2007-10-30, 19.10)http//svt.se/svt/play
    /video.jsp?a379740
  • Lohmander, P., Ökad avverkning skulle kunna rädda
    Norrsundet, Nordic Paper Journal,
    2007-10-30http//www.papernet.se/iuware.aspx?page
    id395ssoid69620

145
  • Lohmander, P., Fabriken läggs ned helt i onödan,
    Skogsindustrierna, 2007-10-31http//www.skogsindu
    strierna.org/litiuminformation/site/page.asp?Page
    10IncPage578Destination227IncPage2236Destin
    ation2226PKNews5935
  • Lohmander, P., Norrsundet läggs ner helt i
    onödan, Nordisk Papper och Massa,
    2007-11-01http//www.branschnyheter.se/article114
    97.php
  • Lohmander, P., Lägg inte ned Svensk skogsindustri
    på grund av virkesbrist, Krönika, Nordisk Papper
    och Massa 8/2007http//www.Lohmander.com/kronika_
    NPM07.pdf

146
  • Lohmander, P,. Energy Forum, Stockholm, 6-7
    February 2008, Conference program with links to
    report and software by Peter Lohmanderhttp//www
    .energyforum.com/events/conferences/2008/c802/prog
    ram.phphttp//www.lohmander.com/EF2008/EF2008Lohm
    ander.htm
  • Lohmander, P., Ekonomiskt rationell dynamisk
    utveckling för skogen, skogsindustrin och
    energiindustrin i Sverige (Manuscript 2008-03-03)
    http//www.Lohmander.com/ERD2008/ERD2008.pdf
  • Lohmander, P., Ekonomiskt rationell utveckling
    för skogs- och energisektorn i Sverige, Nordisk
    Papper och Massa, Nr 3, 2008

147
  • Lohmander, P., Mohammadi, S., Optimal Continuous
    Cover Forest Management in an Uneven-Aged Forest
    in the North of Iran, Journal of Applied Sciences
    8(11), 2008 http//ansijournals.com/jas/2008/1995-
    2007.pdfhttp//www.Lohmander.com/LoMoOCC.pdf
  • Mohammadi, L.S., Lohmander, P., A game theory
    approach to the Iranian forest industry raw
    material market, Caspian Journal of Environmental
    Sciences, Vol 6, No1, pp. 59-71, 2008
    http//research.guilan.ac.ir/cjes/.papers/969.pdf
    http//www.Lohmander.com/MoLoAGTA.pdf
  • Lohmander, P., (Eng Peter Lohmander (in white
    jacket and black tie) explains that the forest
    growth strongly exceeds the harvest. Lohmander
    motivates increased harvesting and increased
    capacity expansion in bioenergy plants and the
    forest products industry), Swe Skogsavverkningen
    kan ökas enligt forskare! (Swedish Television,
    News, 2008-05-29, 19.15)http//svt.se/svt/play/vi
    deo.jsp?a1158529

148
  • Lohmander, P., Guidelines for Economically
    Rational and Coordinated Dynamic Development of
    the Forest and Bio Energy Sectors with CO2
    constraints, Proceedings from the 16th European
    Biomass Conference and Exhibition, Valencia,
    Spain, 02-06 June, 2008 (In the version in the
    link, below, an earlier misprint has been
    corrected. ) http//www.Lohmander.com/Valencia2008
    .pdf
  • Lohmander, P., Economically Optimal Joint
    Strategy for Sustainable Bioenergy and Forest
    Sectors with CO2 Constraints, European Biomass
    Forum, Exploring Future Markets, Financing and
    Technology for Power Generation, CD, Marcus Evans
    Ltd, Amsterdam, 16th-17th June, 2008
    http//www.Lohmander.com/Amsterdam2008.ppt
  • Lohmander, P., Ekonomiskt rationell utveckling
    för skogs- och energisektorn, Nordisk Energi, Nr.
    4, 2008

149
  • Lohmander, P., Tools for optimal coordination of
    CCS, power industry capacity expansion and bio
    energy raw material production and harvesting,
    2nd Annual EMISSIONS REDUCTION FORUM -
    Establishing Effective CO2, NOx, SOx Mitigation
    Strategies for the Power Industry, CD, Marcus
    Evans Ltd, Madrid, Spain, 29th 30th September
    2008 http//www.lohmander.com/Madrid08/Madrid_2008
    _Lohmander.ppt
  • Lohmander, P., Optimal CCS, Carbon Capture and
    Storage, Under Risk, International Seminars in
    Life Sciences, UPV, Universidad Politécnica de
    Valencia, Thursday 2008-10-16
  • http//www.Lohmander.com/OptCCS/OptCCS.ppt

150
Thank you for listening!Here you may reach me in
the future
  • Peter Lohmander
  • Professor of Forest Management and Economic
    Optimization,
  • SLU, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences,
    Faculty of Forest Sciences,
  • Dept. of Forest Economics, SE-901 83 Umea, Sweden
  • http//www.Lohmander.com
  • Peter_at_Lohmander.com
  • peter.lohmander_at_sekon.slu.se
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