Australian agriculture adapting to climate change: balancing incremental innovation and transformati

1
Australian agriculture adapting to climate
change balancing incremental innovation and
transformational change

• Andrew Ash, Rohan Nelson, Mark Howden, Steve
  Crimp
• CSIRO Climate Adaptation National Research
  Flagship

2
Differentiating Adaptation

• There are two points of action mitigation
  (addressing the cause) and adaptation (planned
  response to the changes)
• Adaptation is the decision-making process and the
  set of actions undertaken to maintain the
  capacity to deal with current or future predicted
  change.
• Mitigation has a focus on technologies
  (renewables, CO2 capture and geosequestration,
  geothermal, biofuels, energy efficiency) and hard
  economic mechanisms (emissions trading scheme).

3
Adaptive Capacity
Adaptive capacity can be defined as the
preconditions necessary to enable adaptation,
including social and physical elements, and the
ability to mobilize these elements
4
Overcoming the adaptation bottleneck in research

• Moving beyond traditional climate change research
  that focuses on physical impacts and conducted in
  a decision vacuum

5
Reducing vulnerability by moving to comprehensive
adaptation
Vulnerability fn( Impacts , Adaptation)
derived from Holling (1978)
6
Adaptation options - CCRSPI
7
Adaptation Options

• Incremental - largely maintaining existing
  activities and building on existing technologies
  reactive and proactive
• Transformational major changes in enterprises,
  land use and human and social capital largely
  proactive and strategic

8
Reactive, incremental adaptation

• Ignoring the trend meant extra frost risk early
  in the 100-year record and missed opportunities
  later

Howden et al. 2004
9
Proactive, incremental adaptation

• APSIM used to simulate production at a paddock
  scale
• Benchmarking occurred in consultation with the
  farmers
• As a minimum, simulated yields were compared
  against observations for a range of crops

Mallee farming system - VIC
10
Adaptation strategies for wheat at Birchip

• Under the mid range global warming scenario
  local Birchip seasonal temperatures are projected
  to increase between 0.6 and 1.1oC and annual
  rainfall is projected to decline by 4 to 8.

11
Transformational change

• When?
• Dependent on success of incremental adaptation,
  resolving some of the uncertainties in climate
  projections, influence of global drivers and
  trends
• Where?
• Can we determine regions and/or industries most
  in need of transformational change, not just in
  terms of climate trends but other aspects of
  vulnerability and adaptive capacity
• How?
• The relative roles of policy (structural
  adjustment), technologies and adaptive capacity

12
Transformational change is not without precedence
13
Drought policy and transformational change
(to Dec 07)
14
A nested model of adaptation
Sectors trade
Trade policy
National policy
Regional industry policy
Agribusiness NRM extension
Adoption adaptation
15
Building Adaptive Capacity

• Acceptance that climate change is real and will
  amplify over the coming decades
• 2. Confidence that the projected changes will
  significantly impact on farming enterprises
• 3. Technical and other management options
  available and targeted to specific regions and
  industries
• 4. Early warning of likely major land use changes
  resulting from climate change that allows early
  policy intervention in supporting transitions and
  structural adjustment
• 5. Adaptive management and governance in policy,
  institutions and industries that support
  agriculture.

16
Thank you
Climate Adaptation Flagship Andrew
Ash Telephone [phone] Email
andrew.ash_at_csiro.au