Chinese Population Model

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Chinese Population Model

• By Jennifer, Brennan, and Fred

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Large Population in China

• 1980 1 billion
• 2002 1.3 billion
• Goal 700 million
• Real Population Graph

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Simple Model

• Starts 1980
• Only Legal Births and Deaths
• One Child a Family Law
• According to Case Study

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Simple Model
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Simple Model Results

• Reach Goal lt 6 Years
• Unrealistic Results
• 2.2 Million _at_ 100 Years

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Improved Model

• Same Factors
• Starts 1980
• Uses Same Legal Death/Birth Rates
• Adds
• Illegal Births/Deaths/Emigration
• Immigration/Emigration

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Improved Model
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Improved Model Results

• Not in a Hundred Years
• Verified Online Research
• Validated 22 Years

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Resources

• http//www.chineseculture.about.com
• http//www.cpirc.org.cn
• http//www.pnl.gov/china
• http//www.ocdi.gov
• Case Study Harte, J., 1985 Consider a Spherical
  Cow, William Kaufmann, Inc., Los Altos,
  California, pp. 216-223.