New Society, 2e, Robert J. Brym, ed.

1
Population
2
SOME DISCUSSION QUESTIONS

• Identify one demographic trend that is likely to
  affect you
• at some point during your lifetime.

• Identify one demographic trend that has/will
  affect
• Canadian society.

3
Population and Policy

• The main population phenomena are
• FERTILITY
• MIGRATION
• and MORTALITY.

4
Processes and States

• DEMOGRAPHY studies the stock (or state) of
  populations (their size, distribution and
  composition) at a given time point and their flow
  (or processes involving population change).

5
The stock and flow of population are dynamically
interrelated. For example, P2P1B-DI-E,
where P2 is population at time 2, P1 is
population at time 1, B is births, D is deaths,
I is immigration and E is emigration.
6
Malthus

• One of the two classical perspectives on
  population processes is that of Malthus.
• Positive checks on population.
• Preventative checks on population.

7
Marx

• The second classical theory of population is
  Marxs.

8
Demographic Transition Theory

• An important modern demographic theory is the
  THEORY OF THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION.

9
Demographic Transition Theory
1
2
3
birth rate
death rate
growth
slow
fast
slow
stage
preindustrial
early industrial
mature industrial
Time
10
World Population Growth
11
World Population, 1750-2100 (in millions)
millions
Year
12
World Population and Urban Growth, 1950-2020
2020
1950
2.5 billion
8.1 billion
13
The Worlds Largest Cities, 1950 and 2000 (in
millions)

• 1950
• London 6.6
• New York 4.2
• Paris 3.3
• Berlin 2.4
• Chicago 1.7
• Vienna 1.6
• Tokyo 1.5
• St Ptrsbrg. 1.4
• Philadel. 1.4

• 2000
• Mexico C. 31.0
• Sao Paulo 25.8
• Tokyo 24.2
• New York 22.8
• Shanghai 22.7
• Beijing 19.9
• Los Ang. 17.1
• Bombay 16.8
• Calcutta 16.7

14
Population Change in Canada Mortality

• Life Expectancy
• Infant Mortality

15
Population Change in Canada Fertility I

• The baby boom of 1946-66 excepted, there has been
  a long-term decline in the fertility rate, from 7
  births per woman in the 1850s to under 2 in the
  1980s.
• COHORT COMPLETED FERTILITY
• TOTAL FERTILITY RATE

16
Population Change in Canada Fertility II

• Immediate causes
• Economic causes
• Structural factors
• Cultural factors

17
Population Change in Canada Immigration I
18
Population Change in Canada Immigration II
19
Population Growth, Canada by Province and
Territory, 1951-91 (in percent)
growth
Canada 201
20
Immigration and Emigration, Canada, 1988-95 (in
000s)
000s
Year
21
Some Key Demographic Formulae

• Birth rate births/1,000 population
• Death rate deaths/1,000 population
• Rate of natural increase (birth rate - death
  rate)/10
• Net migration immigration - emigration
• Rate of net migration (net migration/1,000
  population)/10
• Growth rate rate of natural increase rate of
  net migration
• expressed as percent per year