Metropolitan Planning Organization Travel Forecasting State of the Practice

1
Metropolitan Planning OrganizationTravel
Forecasting State of the Practice

• Presented To
• AMPO Modeling Work Group
• By
• Guy Rousseau,
• Atlanta Regional Commission
• TRB Committee 0090 Member

October 23, 2006 Salt Lake City, Utah
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B0090Committee for Determination of the State of
the Practice in Metropolitan Area Travel
Forecasting

• The origin of the study requested of the
  National Research Council and Transportation
  Research Board, by United States Department Of
  Transportation Office of the Secretary, Federal
  Highway Administration, and Federal Transit
  Administration.
• The scope This project gathers information and
  determines the state of the practice for
  metropolitan area travel demand modeling by
  metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs) and
  state departments of transportation (DOTs).  In
  addition, the committee identifies actions needed
  to ensure that the appropriate technical
  processes are being used for travel modeling.

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The committee membership

• Chairman
• Martin Wachs, RAND Corporation
• Members
• Laura L. Cove, North Carolina DOT
• Thomas B. Deen, Transportation Consultant
• George B. Dresser, Texas AM University
• Ronald W. Eash, Northwestern University
• Robert A. Johnston, University of California,
  Davis
• Eric J. Miller, University of Toronto
• Michael R. Morris, North Central Texas Council of
  Governments

• Richard H. Pratt, Richard H. Pratt Consultant,
  Inc.
• Charles L. Purvis, Oakland Metro Transportation
  Commission
• Guy Rousseau, Atlanta Regional Commission
• Mary Lynn Tischer, Virginia Department of
  Transportation
• Richard E. Walker, Metro Portland
• Staff
• Jon M. Williams, Transportation Research Board
• Steve Godwin, Transportation Research Board

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Process of the Committee

• We have met 4 times, once jointly with this AMPO
  models group
• We have received information from a number of
  sources
• listening sessions during our meetings,
• national survey of MPO modeling practice (by
  BMI-VHB)
• survey of states (DOTs) to determine what role
  they have for metropolitan travel forecasting 
• extensive literature review
• targeted research on such topics as the history
  of FHWA / FTA funding for MPOs and the accuracy
  of 20-year MPO land use forecasts

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MPOs Providing Responses to Survey
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Survey Objectives

• Support TRB Committee B0090 by noting modeling
  practices that are
• Unusual
• Questionable
• Likely represent advance state-of-the-practice
• Deficient
• Ways to improve modeling
• Otherwise of special interest

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Top Ten Best Model Features
10. Multipath Transit Assignment
10. Detailed Operations Outputs
9. Accurate Land Use Data
8. Intersection Impedances
7. GIS Based
6. Multiplicity of Trip Purposes
5. Modes/Mode Choice Model
4. Standardized Model
3. Zone/Network Details
2. Well Calibrated and Validated

• Ease of Use/Flexibility
• Source MPO-DOT survey

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Top Ten Worst Model Features
10. Lack of Tour Based Activity Model
9. No Mode Choice Model
8. Lack of Commercial Vehicle/Truck/Freight
Modeling
7. Lack of Toll/HOT Lane Modeling
6. Lack of Recent Quality Calibration
5. Lack of Travel Survey Data
4. Lack of Time of Day
3. Trip Generation
2. Lack of Detail/Quality of Mode Choice in Model

• Land Use Forecasting (see next slide as to why
  that is.????.....!!!)
• Source MPO-DOT survey

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Committee Next Steps

• We have written a draft report that includes
  discussion, findings, and recommendations for
  both policy and technical topics.  This report is
  currently under review by the committee.
• Following the completion of our committee review,
  our report will be subject to an external peer
  review by about 8 reviewers.  Once the comments
  of these reviewers are satisfied, the report will
  be edited and published
• Release of the report at the TRB Annual Meeting
  seems unlikely.
•  
• At the TRB Annual Meeting, and the 2007
  Transportation Planning Applications conference
  (see www.trb-appcon.org), there will likely be
  presentation of the final findings of the
  national survey of MPO travel modeling practice