Milton Keynes Continuous Local Housing Assessment: Understanding Housing Requirements Jonathan Lee O

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Milton Keynes Continuous Local Housing
AssessmentUnderstanding Housing Requirements
Jonathan LeeOpinion Research ServicesSpin-out
company of the University of Wales Swansea
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ORS SOCIAL RESEARCH COMPANY

• Established in 1988 within University of Wales
  Swansea
• Spun-out 1998
• Expanded ? UK-wide reputation
• 90 public sector work
• Housing experience
• Greater London
• GLA all-London housing requirements 2004 2006
  update
• LDA housing impact of long-term student growth
• Milton Keynes South Midlands
• Population and migration study for NHS MKC
• Continuous housing assessment 2005-09 for MKC
  EP
• South West Regional Housing Board
• Relative priorities for housing investment
• Over 60 local housing requirement studies

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ORS HOUSING STUDIES

• 2005
• Barking Reach
• Harlow
• Luton
• Milton Keynes South Midlands
• Neath Port Talbot HMA
• Northamptonshire BME
• Sevenoaks GT
• South Bedfordshire
• South Bedfordshire GT
• St Edmundsbury
• 2004
• Bedford
• Bexley
• Ceredigion
• Greater London
• Merthyr Tydfil II
• Mid Beds
• Newport

• CURRENT
• Milton Keynes (on-going 2005-09)
• Exeter and Torbay
• Guernsey States
• Newport-Torfaen-Blaenau Gwent-Monmouthshire
• West Cornwall
• COMPLETE
• 2006
• Arncott LHA
• Bedfordshire sub-region
• Greater Norwich sub-region
• Greater London Student Long-term Housing Impact
  Study (LDA)
• Greater London update
• Luton BME
• Northern/Eastern Herts GT
• Redbridge
• South Holland GT
• Suffolk Coastal

• 2003
• Conwy
• Govt Office South West
• Oxford
• Teignbridge
• West Lindsey
• 2002
• Carrick
• Guernsey States
• Kennet
• Pembrokeshire CNP
• Powys
• South Oxfordshire
• South Somerset
• St Albans
• Torfaen
• Wokingham
• 2001
• Cotswold

• 2000
• Caerphilly
• Stroud
• Vale of Glamorgan II
• Wirral II
• Milton Keynes
• 1999
• East Lothian
• Plymouth
• South Hams
• Shrewsbury
• Tewkesbury
• Vale of Glamorgan
• Wirral
• 1998
• Wrexham
• 1997
• Merthyr Tydfil
• Cardiff II

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PROJECTS IN MILTON KEYNES

• Milton Keynes Housing Requirements Study
• Joint EP/MKC project
• Initial fieldwork report (1999-2000)
• Update of analysis (2002)
• Milton Keynes South Midlands Study of Population
  Migration
• Joint NHS/MKC project
• Fieldwork report (2004-05)
• Milton Keynes Continuous Housing Assessment
• Joint EP/MKC project
• 4-year programme
• Initial fieldwork report 2,400 interviews
  (2006)
• Update of analysis with follow-on fieldwork
  (2007-09)
• 800 interviews per year
• Separate analysis of Gypsy Traveller and BME
  requirements
• 22 socio-economic profiles

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Background to ORS Approach

• Innovative approach
• Total Requirement
• How many additional units are required?
• How to distinguish effective demand and needs?
• How many units should be affordable?
• Bottom-up analysis from primary data
• Household survey 2,400 interviews
• Representative sample
• Following weighting for identified non-response
  bias
• Effectively combined with good quality secondary
  data
• Setting good practice for local studies
• Focus on housing market dynamics
• Developing sub-regional perspective

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HOUSING MODELLINGMusical Chairs Analogy

• Profile housing need and housing demand
• Established households
• Newly forming households
• Migrant households
• Profile likely housing supply
• Vacated as households move
• Household dissolution
• Match demand against supply
• Which households unable to find suitable housing

• Profile households in
• Unsuitable housing
• Housing need
• Identify solutions
• Investment in stock
• Financial intervention
• New housing provision
• Model effect of various assumptions about
• Affordability
• Effective need
• Household formation
• Migration

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LOCAL HOUSING ASSESSMENTS

• Emerging guidance Not a minor revision
• Marks a change in attitude to housing provision
• Integrates understanding of housing need into a
  wider view of how the housing market operates
• Focus on regional and sub-regional context
• LHA Not a snap-shot survey but an ongoing
  process
• Need to understand the local housing market in
  order to develop and deliver effective policies
• Long-term commitment to partnership working
• Need to involve stakeholders
• Public sector and private sector representatives
  need to understand each others perspectives

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UNDERSTANDING LOCAL HOUSING
HOUSING ASSESSMENT
Housing Requirement Study
Housing Requirement Study Housing
Market Analysis
Housing Needs Survey
Public Sector House Condition Survey
Housing Market Analysis
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Future Housing Requirements

• Existing households
• Able to afford, moving within the market
• Unable to afford
• Home becoming unsuitable
• Losing their current home
• Newly forming households
• Including moves from institutions
• Inward migrant households

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Future Housing Supply

• Existing households
• Vacating existing homes
• Outward migrant households
• Household dissolutions
• Existing households joining together
• Death of all household members

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Annual Flows 2002 Study
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Annual Flows 2006 Study
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Components of Housing Requirement

• Housing need
• Cannot afford market housing
• To buy or for rent
• Current circumstances are inadequate
• Lack own housing
• Live in housing that is unsuitable
• Housing demand
• Want different housing
• Regardless of current circumstances
• Can afford suitable market housing
• Need demand differentiated by housing cost

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Established Households in Unsuitable Housing
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Resolving Unsuitability Problems
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Average Local House Prices
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Milton Keynes House Prices by Price Band
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Average House Prices by Property Size
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Average House Prices Relative to Regions
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MILTON KEYNES MIGRATION 1999-2004
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MILTON KEYNES MIGRATION 1999-2004
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MILTON KEYNES BME POPULATION
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Change in Housing Stock Split 1999-2006
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Rents by Tenure Property Size
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5-Yr Housing Requirement Need Demand
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Housing Requirement Need Demand
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Housing Requirement Need Demand

• GROSS REQUIREMENT
• Market Housing
• Affordable Housing
• Including annual new need proportion of
  existing need
• 5-YEAR TOTAL
• NET REQUIREMENT
• Market Housing
• Affordable Housing
• 5-YEAR TOTAL

• 5-YEAR
• 35,800
• 15,700
• 51,500
• 5-YEAR
• 15,100
• 5,900
• 21,000

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Results from the 2002 Analysis
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Results from the 2006 Study
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ASSESSING AFFORDABILITY

• Emerging Guidance
• Up to 25 of household gross income
• Regardless of absolute income levels
• Regardless of household structure dependents
• Method adopted for previous study
• Variable amount of household gross income
• Higher proportion for higher income levels
• Lower proportion where many dependents
• Absolute maximum of 30 of gross income
• Accepted by all at Local Plan Inquiry
• Significant difference in outcomes

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Alternative Results from the 2006
StudyConsidering Impact of Disposable Income on
Housing Cost
Emerging Guidance
Alternative Analysis
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Alternative Results from the 2006
StudyConsidering Impact of Disposable Income on
Housing Cost
Emerging Guidance
Alternative Analysis
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Housing Requirement Size Mix
Net Requirement Size Mix
Gross Requirement Size Mix
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Housing Requirement Type/Size Mix
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HOUSING REQUIREMENT-SUPPLY BALANCE
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HOUSING PROVISION BALANCE BY TENURE
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HOUSING PROVISION BALANCE BY TENURE
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• Jonathan LeeHead of Quantitative Research
• Opinion Research ServicesThe StrandSwanseaSA1
  1AF
• 01792 535300
• jonathan.lee_at_ors.org.ukwww.ors.org.uk