US and World Cotton Supply and Demand Outlook

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US and World Cotton Supply and Demand Outlook

• Presented at the
• Sourcing USA Summit II
• November 14-17, 2002
• Scottsdale, AZ
• Prepared by Economic Services
• National Cotton Council

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Cotton Prices
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World Cotton SuppliesUSDA 136 mil bales for 02
crop, down from 141 last year
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World Cotton Supplies47 mil bales of old-crop
cotton
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World Beginning StocksBy Location
47.8 mil bales
47.5 mil bales
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World Cotton SuppliesUSDA puts production at 88
mil bales
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Change in Cotton ProductionDown 10 mil bales in
2002 relative to 2001
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2002 US Cotton Production (Mil Bales)
3.9 mil bales, down 1.7 from 01
5.8 mil bales, down 1.1 from 01
5.4 mil bales, up 0.9 from 01
2.7 mil bales, down 0.5 from 01
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World Cotton Mill UseUSDA 96.2 mil bales
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World Fiber Mill Use
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Textile Polyester ProductionSource PCI
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Change in Cotton Mill UseFrom 01 to 02, China
accounts for over half of the growth
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US Cotton Mill UseUSDA 7.7 mil bales
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US Real GDP Growth
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Real Exchange Rate IndicesSource Federal
Reserve Board
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US Cotton Textile Apparel Imports by Country of
Origin
Estimate based on imports as of July
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US Cotton Mill Use Supply
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US Cotton Mill Use, Supply Exports
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Summary

• In 2002, lower production in the US and abroad
• Despite drop in production, total supplies still
  second largest in recent history
• Demand growth hinges on general economy and
  competition from MMF
• Current estimates suggest tighter world market
  for 03

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Producers
Cooperatives