Our Energy Future

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Our Energy Future

• John Wilcynski
• Executive Vice President

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• GLOBAL ENERGY SUPPLY

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The Deficit in Global Oil Supply

• For 40 years, new oil discoveries have declined
• Increases from newly discovered reserves are
  below total production volume
• Limits of available oil resources may be reached
  in the next 2-3 decades

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The Global Oil Shortfall
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Chinas Impact

• China today imports 20 of its petroleum
• By 2030, may approach 80
• Will be a net importer of natural gas by 2010

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The China Demand
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The India Demand
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World Energy Supply Conclusions

• Chinas power demand is growing at an annual rate
  equivalent to the total electricity generation of
  Mexico or Spain
• The global competition will dramatically
  intensify to meet China and Indias needs alone

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Energy and GDPA U.S. Perspective
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U.S. GDP and Energy Consumption
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Energy Growth GDP Growth

• So goes GDP as goes energy supply
• Sustaining the GDP growth requires
• Energy efficiency and conservation
• Major additions to production and generation
• The China and India premium is ominous

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Major Investments Needed
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U.S. Consumer Energy Supply Concerns

• Safe and secure energy sources Geopolitical
  forces
• Global warming
• Affordable, predictable, and reliable
• Environmental protection
• Provide for economic development

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Nuclear Energy in the Mix
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The Worlds Nuclear Power Reactors
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The Issues

• Public perception
• Certainty of new build capital costs and
  regulatory structure
• Spent fuel management and disposal
• Decline in the U.S. nuclear infrastructure
• In 1978 we stopped and the world didnt
• Human resources

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The 21st Century A Century in Transition
Recycle (Industry with Labs)
2008
2020
2100
2050
2075
Proceed with New Build (Industry)
Long-Term Waste Repository (Government)
Next Generation Nuclear Plant(Industry w/labs)
Advanced Concepts Potential Hydrogen Economy
(Laboratories)
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So What is Next in Nuclear?

• Get on with new nuclear build
• Close the fuel cycle- GNEP or by Industry
• Protect the industry against uncertainties
• Clean up the legacy- both Govt utilities
• Provide balanced public information
• Assure superb ongoing operations
• Renew our human resources

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Summary

• World-wide energy issues undeniable
• Intense petroleum competition
• Many countries managing their destiny
• ES promotes diverse energy supply
• Nuclear the key to stationary power
• Our industry is up to the challenge
• Human resources may be the major gap