Information Technology Standing Committee

1
Market Pricing Issues Update
Kerry Noble Holiday Inn - Oakville
2
Agenda

• Update on pricing initiatives
• Hour-Ahead Dispatchable Loads
• Spare Generation On-Line
• Control Action Operating Reserve

3
Hour-Ahead Dispatchable Load

• Registered HADL
• 240 MW total 4 market participants
• July and August Activity Summary
• scheduled 25 hours in July (up to 30 MW/hr)
• scheduled 1 hour in August
• lt 10 k HADL Offer Guarantee Payments
• No HADL activity in September and October market
  prices too low?
• Impact on pricing issues and prices to date -
  negligible

4
Spare Generation On-Line

• Registered SGOL
• 3600 MW total
• September and October
• 10 Sep to 4 Oct 13 days where SGOL scheduled
• Impact on pricing issues and prices
• Guarantee payments 170k (revenues earned lt
  eligible costs)
• Reducing HOEP by 0.1 to 2.0 /MWh in hours
  associated with minimum run time

5
SGOL Impact on HOEP - 1
90
SGOL Unit Minimum Run-Time
80
70
60
Daily Avg HOEP
Actual 62.44 /MWh
50
Hourly Ontario Energy Price (/MWh)
W/O SGOL 62.54 /MWh
40
30
20
10
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
Hour
Actual HOEP
Estimated HOEP without SGOL
6
SGOL Impact on HOEP - 1
90
SGOL Unit Minimum Run-Time
80
70
60
Daily Avg HOEP
Actual 62.44 /MWh
50
Hourly Ontario Energy Price (/MWh)
W/O SGOL 62.54 /MWh
40
30
20
10
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
Hour
Actual HOEP
Estimated HOEP without SGOL
7
Control Action Operating Reserve

• Standing Offers for 200 MW introduced 6 Aug 03
• Additional 200 MW introduced 15 Oct 03
• 30.10 /MW for 10 minute non-synchronized OR
• 30.00 /MW for 30 minute OR
• OR ramp rate 999 MW/min
• 2000 /MWh for energy
• Energy ramp rate 4 MW/min
• All Pre-Dispatch and Real-Time Schedules

8
CAOR - Frequency of Scheduling

• Results to October 13, 2003
• Frequency declining lower market demands change
  in market OR offers

gt17000 RT intervals gt1400 PD hours
9
CAOR Impact on HOEP - 1
80
70
60




48.8
50
48.5
48.0
47.6
Daily Average HOEP (/MWh)
40
30
20
10
0
1-Oct
2-Oct
3-Oct
4-Oct
5-Oct
6-Oct
7-Oct
8-Oct
9-Oct
10-Oct
11-Oct
12-Oct
13-Oct
30-Sep
Date
7 Aug - 29 Sep Average
7 Aug - 13 Oct Average
Estimated Daily Avg HOEP W/O CAOR
Actual Daily Average HOEP
10
CAOR Impact on HOEP - 1

• Estimate that Daily Average HOEP higher by 0.3
  /MWh
• 48.8 /MWh with CAOR compared to estimated 48.5
  /MWh without CAOR
• Two largest estimated hourly impacts on HOEP
  remain as previously reported
• 53.36 /MWh increase for August 14 hour 15
• 26.59 /MWh increase for August 13 hour 14
• These impacts represent upper bound of the
  impact, as analysis of estimated HOEP used
  conservative assumptions regarding IMO and MP
  behaviours

11
CAOR - Reliability Impacts

• No unreliable operation of IMO-controlled grid as
  a result of the scheduling of CAOR
• Risk of unreliable operation and/or impact on
  loads as result of the scheduling of CAOR has
  been very small

12
CAOR - Displaced Market OR

• In real-time, the MWs of market participant
  offered OR displaced by scheduled CAOR 0.2 of
  total OR scheduled
• In pre-dispatch, the MWs of market participant
  offered OR displaced by scheduled CAOR 0.1 of
  total OR scheduled

13
PD and RT HOEP Convergence
250
200
Data from Aug 6th to Sept 18'th
150
Data from July 3'rd to August 6'th
PD HOEP minus RT HOEP ( of RT HOEP)
100
50
0
0
3
6
8
11
14
17
20
22
25
28
31
34
36
39
42
45
48
50
53
56
59
61
64
67
70
73
75
78
81
84
87
89
92
95
98
-50
-100
of Time PD HOEP Exceeded RT HOEP
Before Introduction of CAOR
After Introduction CAOR
14
Whats Next?

• Continue to monitor impacts of 400 MW CAOR SGOL
  HADL
• Plan/schedule/proposal for remaining
  out-of-market operating reserve
• balance of Control Action OR
• 200 MW supplemental OR
• 12x ramp rate in market schedule history,
  intent, impacts