If mitigation is about energy, adaptation is about water Henk van Schaik

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If mitigation is about energy, adaptation
is about waterHenk van Schaik
Bonn 22 November 2007    
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• Water and Climate in The Netherlands
• Water and climate globally
• Common grounds

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The Netherlands
Below sealevel 55 Land / 60 Population 65
National Gross Product
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(No Transcript)
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Our common nightmare
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Dutch Climate proofingwe will stay

• Research for knowledge to
• Inform the public
• Build political support first Chamber motion on
  climate proofing
• Develop adaptation plans

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Netherlands case
Generic scenarios Designed to span a wide
range of possible climate change, suitable for
many applications
Dry summers Particularly dry summer conditions
gain additional attention in Dutch climate
adaptation policy
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Vulnerabilities

• In whole area
• restricted discharge capacity
• increase wet damage crops

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Prime Minister perspective.
The climate is changing and we should make our
country climate proof. The national government
together with science, policy and other
stakeholders Jan-Peter Balkenende - Dutch Prime
Minister, november 2005
Science - Policy interaction
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The National Adaptation StrategyChoices made in
the process...

• Open debate
• Not for and by governments or a technocratic
  problem

• Ongoing, planned, future investments, plans,
  policies
• Not just new investments and programmes

• Innovation parallel to practice
• Not sequential first research, than policy
  frames, laws, implementation

• Adaptation mainly by combining work with work
• Not (yet) megaprojects just for adaptation

• Mainstream in 10 year
• Not blueprint or series of projects for the
  coming 50 years

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Costs

• The costs under current climate conditions 1 - 2
  billion Euro's per year (0.2 - 0.4 of the
  national GDP).
• For the coming 50 years, yearly costs about 1.2 -
  2.2 billion Euro's, which is 0.25-0.46 of the
  national GDP.

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RES6485
Water Collection, Tugela Ferry - 07/2002
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Todays global water challenges

• Billions of people live in absolute poverty
• More than a billion people lack access to safe
  water supply and sanitation
• 80 of rural peoples livelihood depend on
  rainfed agriculture for subsistence farming.
• Extreme rainfall variability causing frequent
  droughts and floods
• Climate change comes on top

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International Water Policy Context

• MDGs Reduce by 2015 half the proportion of
  people without sustainable access to safe
  drinking water.
• Reduce by half the population without access to
  basic sanitation by 2015
• IWRM plans.

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Extreme rainfall variability the case of Kenya
Kenya extreme rainfall variability around mean
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Case of Ethiopia
Rainfall GDP growth Ethiopia 1982-2000
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• Climate change

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IPCC 4th Assessment Report

• Expected
• Expansion of drought affected areas
• Higher flood risks
• Decline of water supply from snow fed decreasing
  water security for 1/6 of the world population
• Increased coastal flooding related to sea level
  rise
• Increased deaths because of floods, storms and
  droughts
• Lower food security and malnutrition

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IPCC 2007

• Projected rainfall change 2090-99 versus 1980-99

Jun - Aug
Dec Feb
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Impact of a drier and more variable climate on
GDP growth
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An increase in mean and variance of run off imply
a nonlinear increase in the probability of
extremes, which requires to adjust design criteria
LJM,2002
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DECISION FRAMEWORK ON CLIMATE VARIABILITY
AND CLIMATE CHANGE

• IWRM
• Food security
• Utilities
• Coastal deltas
• Cities
• Energy

• Operating rules
• Water orders
• Water allocation
• Demand management

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Assessing vulnerability(Climate atlas)

• 1. Water resources and ecosystems
• 2. Water supplies
• 3. Food security
• 4. Coastal deltas
• 5. Megacities and urban areas
• 6. Health and sanitation
• 7. Energy

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Reducing vulnerability

• Communicate and use climate information (short,
  medium and long term) at all levels
• Control water use (leakages etc.)
• No regret measures including water storage
• Diversify economy away from rainfed dependence

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Generic features

• Make use of tailored climate information (short,
  seasonal and long term)
• Carry out sector and local specific vulnerability
  assessments to identify hot spots
• Adaptation
• In context of development
• Government, private sector and the public
• Adapt existing and future policies and plans at
  national and local levels
• Communication and Information
• Innovation (technical, communication, governance
  etc.)

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WE NEED MORE THAN JUST LOOKING AT THE PROBLEM!
RES8552
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mitigate...
.. and adapt!
Prevent
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Thank you ! www.waterandclimate.org