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RES 311 Quantitative Methods In Decision Making

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Title: RES 311 Quantitative Methods In Decision Making


1
RES 311Quantitative Methods In Decision Making
  • Dr. Yudhi Ahuja
  • July 2006

2
Welcome!
  • Instructors background
  • Course Information

3
Agenda
  • Technical Check
  • Introductions
  • Course Design
  • Syllabus Review
  • Statistical Analysis An Introduction

4
Technology
  • It is O.K.
  • Dont Panic.
  • Be Patient

5
Technical Set-up
  • Check your headset and microphone connections.
  • Set volume on your microphone and speakers (NOT
    mute)
  • Questions - Press the Hand Icon
  • Wait until your Hand Icon is highlighted.
  • Press the Ctrl key to speak.
  • Press the Pencil Icon to send a note.

6
Technical Difficulties
  • Contact Technical Support for any difficulty with
    the interactive software.
  • Technical support available 24/7
  • Phones (602) 627 4614 or (866) 881 4540.
  • E-mail wiu-tech_at_apollogrp-edu

7
Introduction
  • Name.
  • Major at WIU.
  • Place of Employment.
  • Occupation.
  • Experience.
  • Your Location
  • Please post your Bio in
  • MyWIU Member Area Message Board Off-topic

8
Questions
9
Schedule
  • Live Sessions (Mondays, 6pm PST)
  • Recorded Lessons Schedule
  • Use Interwise Participant to view live sessions
    and pre-recorded lessons

10
MyWIU
  • Website www.wintu.edu.
  • Provides all information about the course and its
    communication.
  • Website navigation
  • Member Area
  • Chat Room
  • Email
  • Message Board
  • Attendance
  • Discussion Questions
  • Off-topic, and more ..
  • Student Tools
  • Assignments
  • Grades, and more ..

11
Attendance
  • MUST post in the Attendance Forum for all 9 weeks
  • Must be timely to receive credit
  • Attendance for week 9 must be posted within 24
    hours.
  • Attendance Policy
  • Must attend one of the first two classes
  • 4 absents will lead to administrative withdrawn
    from the class and a grade of W.
  • Go to www.wintu.edu, follow the link for
    Interactive Online students for directions on how
    to post attendance.

12
Message Board
  • General Discussion
  • Weekly discussions posted here ( to get the week
    participation points).
  • Off-topic
  • Non-course related discussion.
  • Post your Bio here
  • Questions
  • Course related questions only.

13
Course Design
  • Live Sessions
  • Recorded Sessions
  • Text Book
  • Assignments
  • Student Tools
  • My Assignments view and submit assignments
  • Student Presentations (slides due 8/21/06)

14
Questions
15
History of Statistics
  • The word Statistik comes from the Italian word
    Statista(meaning statesman)
  • Later on used for statistical accounts
  • Official Government records(Population, revenue
    etc.)
  • Predictions from statistics ( Births, deaths,
    mortality, national income etc.)

16
Syllabus Review
  • Descriptive Statistics
  • More Descriptive Statistics
  • Basic Probability
  • Probability Distributions
  • Normal Distribution
  • Statistical Inference
  • More Statistical Inference
  • Statistical Hypothesis
  • Statistical Inference Two Populations
  • Three Assignments Based on Above
  • Weekly Discussion Questions and Participation
  • Student Presentations

17
Course Objectives
  • Prepare students for evaluating problems using
    statistical analysis of data
  • Interpret numerical data and learn statistical
    techniques
  • Develop analytical skills for managerial decision
    making
  • Apply quantitative techniques to live business
    situations

18
What is Statistics?
  • Statistics
  • is a science which deals with facts and figures
  • means different things to different people
  • Functionally, statistics is a facilitator for
  • presenting facts and figures
  • simplifying mass of figures
  • comparison and prediction
  • testing hypotheses
  • formulating suitable policies

19
What is Statistics? Contd ..
  • Some famous quotes on Statistics
  • There are 3 kinds of lies lies, damned lies, and
  • Statistics - Benjamin Disraeli
  • The crooks already know these tricks, honest men
  • must learn them in self defense Darel Huff in
    his book, How to lie with Statistics

20
Scope of Statistics
  • Vast and ever increasing
  • Statistics and the state
  • Statistics in business and management
  • Marketing
  • Production
  • Finance
  • Banking
  • Investments
  • Purchase
  • Accounting Statistics and Economics
  • Statistics and research
  • Statistics and computers

21
Categories of Statistics
Categories of Statistics
Decision Theory
Descriptive Statistics
Inferential Statistics
Generalizations made
Uncertainty conditions
Aggregative no generalizations
22
Approach
  • Simple Symbols
  • No mathematical apprehensions
  • Simple arithmetic and algebra
  • Problems related to live situations
  • Learning made easier through
  • Margin notes
  • Real world exercises
  • Review of terms
  • Master glossary
  • Equation review
  • Chapter concepts
  • Statistics at work
  • Computer database exercise
  • Flow charts

23
Frequency Distribution
  • Purpose/objective defined
  • Arrangement of raw data
  • Collection of data
  • Tabulation of data
  • Presentation of data
  • Population Collection of all elements about
    which we trying to draw conclusions.
  • Sample A collection of data from a population
    for which we are drawing an inference based on
    the sample
  • Frequency Distribution For finding a meaningful
    pattern in the data, we divide the data into
    similar categories/classes and count the number
    of observations that fall into each category

24
Frequency Distribution .. Contd.
  • Some Examples
  • Classes
  • Discrete/continuous variable/distribution
  • Inclusive/Non-overlapping classes
  • Over-lapping classes
  • Open-ended/Closed classes
  • Relative Frequency Distribution

25
Graphical Representation of Data
  • Histogram
  • Frequency Polygon
  • Frequency Curve
  • Ogives

26
Measures of Central Tendency
  • Central Tendency is ..
  • a single numbers called summary statistics to
    describe characteristics of a data set
  • the middle point of a distribution OR a single
    quantity/number which describes the
    characteristics of the entire distribution
  • important for decision making
  • Central Tendency measures
  • Arithmetic Mean
  • Geometric Mean
  • Weighted Mean
  • Median
  • Mode

27
Measures of Dispersion
  • Spread or variation of the data in a distribution
  • Extent to which the observations are scattered

28
Measures of Dispersion contd ..
  • Importance of Dispersion/Variation
  • Two or three sets of data within the same same
    central tendency but with one more spread than
    the other.
  • Simply working out the mean of the data means
    missing something, i.e., the differences in the
    distributions.
  • Similarly, mean, mode, and median reveal only
    part of the characteristics of the data.
  • For increasing understanding of the pattern of
    the data, we must also measure Dispersion/Spread/V
    ariation

29
Measures of Dispersion contd ..
  • Some uses of Dispersion
  • Provides additional information on the
    reliability of measure of central tendency
  • Widely spread distributions pre-known
  • Helps comparison of distributions
  • Financial analysts concerned about dispersion of
    a firms earnings
  • Statistical quality control (Quality checks)

30
Measures of Dispersion contd ..
  • How to measure Dispersion?
  • Range
  • Interquartile/Interfractile range
  • Average deviation
  • Standard deviation/Variance
  • Coefficient of variation (Relative measure of
    dispersion)

31
Symmetrical Curve
  • Curves in which a vertical line drawn from the
    center of the curve to the horizontal axis
    divides the area of the curve into equal parts.
  • Each part is a measure of the other

32
Skewness
  • Lack of symmetry is called skewness
  • Frequency distribution concentrated at either the
    low end or the high end of the measuring scale on
    the horizontal axis
  • Values are not equally distributed
  • Positively Skewed a curve skewed to the right
    and tails towards the high end of the scale
  • Negatively Skewed a curve skewed to the left
    and tails towards the low end of the scale

33
Kurtosis
  • Measure the peakedness of a distribution
  • Curves may have the same central location,
    dispersion, and skewness, but different degrees
    of Kurtosis.

34
Correlation and Regression
  • Learn how business decisions depend upon knowing
    the specific relationship between two or more
    variables
  • Practical examples

35
Correlation and Regression .. Contd.
  • Types of relationships
  • Independent dependent variables
  • Direct inverse relationships
  • Positive negative relationships (Correlation)
  • Cause effect relationship
  • Scatter Diagrams
  • Straight line relationship
  • Curvilinear relationship
  • Applications

36
Correlation and Regression .. Contd.
  • Regression Lines
  • Method of least squares
  • Standard error of estimate
  • Coefficient of determination

37
RES 311 Review
  • Attendance Forum One Post/Week
  • Discussion Question One Question/Week, Three
    Posts/Question, Two Different Days/Week.
  • Assignments as specified and scheduled.
  • Interwise Lesson Recordings.
  • Live Sessions as Scheduled.
  • Student Presentations Due (8/21/06)

38
Live Session 1 Conclusion
  • Get connected to MyWIU.
  • Instructor will logon daily to participate and/or
    monitor discussion.
  • Participation in discussions and practice can
    take you closer to the subject and strengthen
    your logical and analytical skills for managerial
    decision under uncertainty.
  • Enjoy the course and apply it to live situations
    in your presentations.

39
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