IRCIRE Workshop on Regional Foresight

1
Introduction to Foresight methods

• IRC/IRE Workshop on Regional Foresight
• Ljubljana, 3-4 March 2003
• Dr. Fabiana Scapolo

2
Outline

• Why methods and tools are used in Foresight
• Typology of Foresight techniques
• Examples

3
Common Foresight features

• Long-term orientation
• over ten years
• Consider a wide-range of factors
• interdisciplinary approaches
• Be interactive
• draw on knowledge and views from different
  sectors and organisations
• Be institutionalised
• creating networks among actors
• Employ formal techniques
• to elicit, structure and synthesise the
  information

4
Why are formal methods used?

• Aid visualisation of possible futures
• Systematic and transparent (if used properly)
• Help identify knowledge gaps
• Can constitute mixed forums for interaction and
  communication between various actors
• Legitimise the Foresight exercise

5
Basic questions

• Which method to select?
• How to use a method in the right manner?

6
Some criteria for selecting methods

• Organisational context
• Nature of issue(s) under consideration
• Quantitative/Qualitative data requirements
• Time horizon
• Methodological competence
• Process/Product balance
• Suitability for combining with other methods
  (feeders and triangulation)
• Suitability for visualising the results

7
Different typology of methods

• Explorative and normative methods
• outward bound inward bound
• Quantitative methods
• reliance on numerical representation of
  developments
• Qualitative methods
• lack of data
• Expert-based methods
• draw out informed opinion and elicitation of
  knowledge
• Assumption-based methods
• elaboration of visions and priorities

8
Overview of some common methods
Creativity
Science
fiction
Brainstorming
Scenario
La
writing
prospective
Combinations
Essays
of methods
Workshops
Delphi
Impact
Panels
Conferences
matrix
Interaction
Expertise

Alignment
9
Classes of Foresight methods
10
Scenarios analysis

• General
• Extensively used pioneered in oil companies
• Recognises unpredictability of the future but
  acknowledges that present decisions will have
  future implications
• Presents alternative images of the future
• Can be extrapolative or normative
• Can make decision-making more robust and help
  foster agile organisations

11
Scenarios analysis

• Process
• Requirements include a facilitator, small groups
  that include users of the scenarios, and time
• Decide on area of concern, time-frame and the
  number of scenarios you want
• Identify and analyse driving forces and
  uncertainties
• Create a working title for each scenario and
  start drafting scenario scripts
• Apply scenarios to decision-making situations

12
Scenarios analysis

• Pros and cons
• Superior to many other methods where number of
  factors to be considered and the degree of
  uncertainty are high
• Stimulates strategic thinking, communication and
  organisational agility
• Difficult to draw up credible and useful
  scenarios
• Users might find it difficult to deal with
  multiple images of plausible futures
• May be mistaken for forecasts

13
Trend Extrapolation

• General
• One of the most common forms of forecasting
• Assumes a pattern, once identified in the past,
  can be extrapolated into the future to give a
  picture of what is likely to happen
• Does not attempt to provide an explanation of the
  pattern observed in the past
• The future is considered as a continuation of the
  past

14
Trend Extrapolation

• Process
• Data collected should ideally be for a period at
  least twice the length of time to be forecast
• Normal problems of time series data apply
• Data is normally plotted and projected by using a
  spreadsheet or statistical package
• Taking different sections of a time series may
  lead to recognition of quite a different trend

15
Trend Extrapolation

• Pros and cons
• Relatively simple to use and easily understood
• Can be used as a tool to quantify scenarios and
  to ensure internal consistency
• It provides a range forecast (not single-point)
• Ignore the effects of unprecedented future events
• The basic assumption of the method is a
  limitation
• Questionable accuracy of the forecasts

16
Summary

• Techniques are used in foresight to ensure
  systematic transparent development of future
  visions
• Important to recognise strengths weaknesses of
  the different approaches - when they should/not
  be used
• Remember that techniques can be (and usually are)
  used in combination