Transforming New Zealand's prosperity:

1
Transforming New Zealand's prosperity the
remarkable opportunity for physics Paul
Callaghan Alan MacDiarmid Professor of Physical
Sciences Victoria University of Wellington
2
Some New Zealand economic history
3
(No Transcript)
4

• Pasture research.
• Strain and breeding
• Nitrogen fixing role
• Bush-sickness-cobalt deficiency
• Integrated pastoral systems
• The role of phosphate
• Aerial topdressing
• The electric fence
• Milk tankers
• The science of milk products
• Mechanised cheesemaking

Geoffrey Peren
Francis Dry
5
percent total land area
Recent history of New Zealand land cover
6
(No Transcript)
7
(No Transcript)
8
(No Transcript)
9
Dunedin September
14
living room
12
10
8
temperature oC
6
4
2
0
outdoors
0000
0600
1200
1800
0000
0600
1200
1800
time (hhmm)
22 August to 5 October
World Health Organisation recommended
EVH3 Impact of Housing on Health in Dunedin
NZ www.dunedincity.govt.nz/city/
Sarah Shannon, Bob Lloyd, Jacob Roos and Jan
Kohlmeyer
10
(No Transcript)
11
20
18
16
14
12
Ratio
10
8
6
4
2
0
1968
1974
1980
1986
1992
1998
2004
2010
Year
Source David Bibby, 1998
12
Trend in per capita GDP relative to OECD average
shortfall US 29.2 billion
New Zealand 2006 GDP US 106.9 billion
New Zealand 2006 GDP - Per Capita US 26,200
Australia 2006 GDP - Per Capita US
33,300
OECD-NZ Institute http//www.nzinstitute.org/
13
Iceland
Japan
USA
Canada
Switzerland
Australia
UK
Greece
Spain
Ireland
Sweden
Finland
Austria
Italy
Netherlands
Belgium
Germany
France
14
Iceland
New Zealand
Japan
USA
Canada
Switzerland
Australia
UK
Greece
Spain
Ireland
Sweden
Finland
Austria
Italy
Netherlands
Belgium
Germany
France
15
prosperity
USA
Ireland
Switzerland
Iceland
Canada
Austria
Australia
Belgium,
Netherlands
Finland
UK
Sweden
France
Japan
Germany
Italy
Spain
New Zealand
Greece
16
The GDP per capita challenge-revenue per employee
shortfall US 29.2 billion
New Zealand GDP - Per Capita US 26,200
NZ 45,200 Australia GDP - Per Capita US
33,300 NZ 57,400
OECD-NZ Institute http//www.nzinstitute.org/
Total FTE New Zealand employment as at March
2009 1.36 million Total New Zealand population
as at March 2009 4.32 million
NZTE
17
The GDP per capita challenge-revenue per employee
shortfall US 29.2 billion
New Zealand GDP - Per Capita US 26,200
NZ 45,200 Australia GDP - Per Capita US
33,300 NZ 57,400
OECD-NZ Institute http//www.nzinstitute.org/
Total FTE New Zealand employment as at March
2009 1.36 million Total New Zealand population
as at March 4.32 million To exceed our
current per capita GDP average revenue per
employee must exceed NZ 45,200(4.32/1.36)
NZ 143,000
NZTE
18
The GDP per capita challenge-revenue per employee
shortfall US 29.2 billion
New Zealand GDP - Per Capita US 26,200
NZ 45,200 Australia GDP - Per Capita US
33,300 NZ 57,400
OECD-NZ Institute http//www.nzinstitute.org/
Total FTE New Zealand employment as at March
2009 1.36 million Total FTE New Zealand
population as at March 4.32 million To
exceed our current per capita GDP average
revenue per employee must exceed NZ
45,200(4.32/1.36) We need another US 30
billion per annum exports New activity must
exceed NZ 143,000 revenue per employee FTE!
NZTE
19
Merchandise exports for the year ended December
2006 US 25.2 billion
Travel and transportation exports for the year
ended December 2006 US 7.4 billion
8
2006 US 32 billion
6
Forestry and other primary
Manufacturing
Foreign earnings (US billion)
Other food and beverage
Tourism
4
Fruit and vegetable
Metals
2
Dairy
Meat
Fish
0
NZ External Trade Statistics http//www.stats.govt
.nz
20
Increase tourism by factor of 4?
Perceptions of Crowding by Track Surveyed
UoO dept Tourism
21
Tourism
Must exceed NZ 143,000 revenue per employee
Tourism expenditure in New Zealand, year ending
March 2007 20.1 billion. (International
expenditure 8.8 billion and domestic expenditure
11.3 billion). ? Tourisms economic contribution
to the New Zealand economy for the year ending
March 2007 14.1 billion of value-added activity
or 9.2 of Gross Domestic Product. Employment in
tourism in New Zealand for the year ending March
2007 comprised 181,200 FTEs or 9.7 of total
employment in New Zealand. NZ 77,814 revenue per
employee (direct indirect)
Statistics NZ
22
Meet psycho for only 7950
Sheikh Mishal bin Hamad al Thani
23
500,000
400,000
300,000
Revenue per employee
200,000
Needed for current per capita GDP
100,000
Tourism
0
200,000
100,000
300,000
FTE of employment
24
500,000
400,000
300,000
Revenue per employee
NZ Manufacturing Exports
Total NZ Manufacturing
200,000
Needed for current per capita GDP
Food manufacturing
100,000
Wine
Tourism
0
200,000
100,000
300,000
FTE of employment
25
Fonterra
500,000
400,000
300,000
Revenue per employee
NZ Manufacturing Exports
Total NZ Manufacturing
200,000
Needed for current per capita GDP
Food manufacturing
100,000
Wine
Tourism
0
200,000
100,000
300,000
FTE of employment
26
Fonterra
500,000
Fisher and Paykel Healthcare
400,000
300,000
Revenue per employee
NZ Manufacturing Exports
Total NZ Manufacturing
200,000
Needed for current per capita GDP
Food manufacturing
100,000
Wine
Tourism
0
200,000
100,000
300,000
FTE of employment
27
Merchandise exports for the year ended December
2006 US 25.2 billion
Travel and transportation exports for the year
ended December 2006 US 7.4 billion
8
2006 US 32 billion
6
Forestry and other primary
Manufacturing
Foreign earnings (US billion)
Other food and beverage
Tourism
4
Fruit and vegetable
Metals
2
Dairy
Meat
Fish
0
NZ External Trade Statistics http//www.stats.govt
.nz
28
The problem with dairy expansion (factor of five)
A handful of slimy algae and lake weed, being
pulled out of Lake Rotoiti Photo Arno Gasteiger
29
NZ Greenhouse gas emissions http//www.mfe.govt.nz
30
(No Transcript)
31
US revenues and profits


NZ 400,000 per employee
32
(No Transcript)
33
(No Transcript)
34
Our place on the research funding phase diagram
Agriculture, F and F
NZ
POR
9 per kg
IRL
DEN
CAN
AUST
FIN
BEL MEX TA FR JPN NED SW GER SP UK
USA
Industry
Environment
3000 per kg
Source David Bibby, IRL, 1998
35
New Economy Research Fund 1999-2005
New Zealand
USA (and nearly everyone else)
Abt Associates report to MoRST www.morst.govt.nz
36
www.morst.govt.nz
37
F and P appliances
TIN100 New Zealand Technology Companies
Datacom
F and P Healthcare
Navico
NDA
ProvencoCadmus
1410m
Rakon
Gallagher
Weta Ltd
Tait Electronics Ltd
500m
Douglas pharmaceuticals
Allied Telesis
Methven
Tru Test
Glidepath
400m
Annual revenue (NZ)
Dynamic controls
CWF Hamilton
Schneider electric
Skope industries
300m
BCS group
Humanware
Infinity group
200m
NZ Pharmaceuticals
100m
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
1
Rank
38
(No Transcript)
39
www.hotscience.co.nz Beyond the Farm and the
Themepark 50 minute documentary TVNZ 7 4,5,6
November 2008
40
Auckland University Press March 2009
41
NMR of Antarctic Sea Ice
McMurdo Sound
42
(No Transcript)
43
Mercier, Hunter and C, 2004
44
(No Transcript)
45
Science/engineering/business partnership
Craig Eccles physicist/engineer
Robin Dykstra physicist/engineer
46
Science/engineering/business partnership
Andrew Coy physicist/businessman CEO Magritek
47
NZ 150,000 per employee
One-sided access NMR
48
2 MHz Halbach magnet rockcore analyzer
49
Magritek prospects

• 10 staff existing products selling well
• New 2008 offshore investment (London and New
  York)
• 1 000 000 sales in 2008
• 1 000 000 sales by June 2009
• Significant potential for new products

50
NZ Taxpayer investment 1993 to 2009
51
NZ Taxpayer investment 1993 to 2009
Magritek export sales
52
NZ Taxpayer return on investment 1993 to 2009
Magritek export sales
53
PhD students completed 1985-2009
Craig Eccles -to ETH Zurich now Magritek Peter
Daivis -to ANU now A/Prof, RMIT, Melbourne,
Australia Yang Xia - to Cornell now Prof.,
Oakland University, Detroit, USA Andrew Coy- to
KTH, Stockholm now CEO Magritek, Craig Rofe -
to UCSF, USA now Onslow College, Wellington Jim
Hargreaves - to New Zealand Dairy Research
Institute Bertram Manz - to Cambridge Univ., now
Magritek Miki Komlosh -to Freiburg University,
now NIH, Washington, USA Maria Kilfoil-to Harvard
University, now Prof McGill U., Canada Ryan
Cormier (PhD)-to, Ottawa, now Physician,
Canada Alexandre Khrapitchev-to Cambridge Univ.
now Oxford, UK Roger Meder-to QUT, Australia
now ENSIS, Australia Maria del Rosario
Lopez-Gonzalez-to PDF, U Glasgow, UK. Robin
Dykstra - to VUW, co-founder Magritek Antoine
Lutti -to PDF at UCL, UK Simon Rogers -to PDF at
FORTH, Greece Kate Washburn -to ResLab, Norway
54
Our PhD student obligations
World-connected, entrepreneurial, engaged with
public
55
Scientists as leaders in society
Science is a way of looking at the world to try
to understand natural phenomena and their causes
in a way that is self-consistent and corresponds
with reality.
Values
Professor Lewis Wolpert
Evidence-based decisions Peer review as a way of
life A rational, if not benign,
nature Scepticism as a virtue What numbers mean
and what they do not mean Expressing complex
ideas with simple clarity Knowledge is not to be
feared
56
(No Transcript)
57
Rich economies must defend themselves by
remaining on the cutting edge of research,
moving into new and growing branches, learning
from others, finding the right niches, by
cultivating and using ability and knowledge.
Much will depend on their spirit of enterprise,
their sense of identity and commitment to
the common weal, their self-esteem, their ability
to transmit these assets across the
generations. The one lesson that emerges is the
need to keep trying. No miracles, no
perfection, no millennium, no apocalypse. We
must cultivate a sceptical faith, avoid dogma,
listen and watch well, try to clarify and define
ends, the better to choose means.