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The quantitative survey of drought effects on the barley yield in Eastern Azarbayjan by classical st

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The main drought definition is the lack of gaining water in specific ... Data were collected from north east of Iran, Tabriz and Miane synoptic stations. Tabriz ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: The quantitative survey of drought effects on the barley yield in Eastern Azarbayjan by classical st


1
The quantitative survey of
drought effects on the barley yield in Eastern
Azarbayjan by classical statistical ways
  • Elham Rahmani1
  • Dr.Abdolmajid Liaghat1 Prof.Ali Khalili1
  • 1 Irr. Reclam. Eng. Faculty, Agro meteorology
    Department,
  • university of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
  • 10th International Meeting on Statistical
    Climatology (10IMSC)

2
Introduction
  • The main drought definition is the lack of
    gaining water in specific period of time and in a
    distinct region.
  • Drought causes extensive damages to agricultural
    products.
  • Rainfall has the major part in all definitions of
    drought indexes.
  • The climatic parameters are usually used for
    estimating crop products and predicting
    agricultural droughts .

3
Objective
  • In this research ,
  • the attempt is to define different models that
    relate drought indexes and climatic parameters
    combinatory on crop yield, using classical
    (regression) methods.

4
Methodology
  • To develop regression models, different climatic
    parameters and drought indexes were used to
    relate them with crop yield.
  • Data were collected from north east of Iran,
    Tabriz and Miane synoptic stations.

5
Tabriz
Miane
6
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7
Climatic Parameters
8
Drought Indexes
9
Estimated Drought Indexes
  • The Percentage of Normal Precipitation Index
    (PNPI)
  • Standard Index of Annual Precipitation (SIAP)
  • Converted Selenianov Hydrothermal Index (HT)
  • Nguyen Index (k)
  • Rainfall Anomaly Index (RAI)
  • Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)
  • Shashko Moisture Drought Index (MD)
  • Transeau Index (Ih)

10
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11
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12
Single and Multivariate Regression Models
13
single models
14
single models
15
Multivariate models
16
CallingRegression Models
17
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18
Evaluation of Model function indexes
19
The values of R , RMSE and MBE for models
20
Ranking Models
21
Conclusion
  • The best multivariate regression model includes
    P, wind, Sunshine, tgt10, K
  • Among the drought indexes studied in this
    research, RAI, Ih, SPI24, K are the most
    effective ones on the crop yield estimation.
  • The multiple models include the combination of
    climatic parameters drought indexes together
    are better for crop yield prediction.
  • To predict the yield of products, multiple models
    are better than simple models.

22
Thanks for your kind attention
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