Title: ADVANCED KNOWLEDGE IS POWER
1ADVANCED KNOWLEDGE IS POWER
- Protect Life and Property
- Promote Economic Vitality
- Environmental Stewardship
- Promote Fundamental Understanding
2Science in Service to Society
- Arguments for a major transition
3The transition is a product of
- (a) significant improvements in capability and
(b) demonstrated importance of the information
for decision- makers
4Elements in the transition An expansion of the
forecasting family
- As a result of specific needs
- Air quality lightning energy demand uv severe
weather evacuations agriculture etc.
5Elements in the transition An expansion in
the time scales of interest
- Instrumented and pre-instrumented records
- Weather forecasts
- Seasonal-to interannual outlooks
- Long-term climate change
6The Future Environmental Intel Center(s)
7Addressing Societal Needs
- Integrated Observation Systems
- Data management and access
- High Resolution coupled models
- Human Dimensions
8Some Steps in the Transition
- Promoting the transition from research to
operations - Adding Service to Climate
- Focus on Communication
9Transition from Research to Operations
10How Effective is our Transition Process
- A strong research program
- A healthy infrastructure for transition
- A strong interface with the user community
- International observation and data access
partnerships - Continuous evaluation processes
11Climate Services
12Evidence for a Growing DemandSome examples
- The Evolution of Hurricane Risk
- Application of ENSO Forecasts
- Weather Derivatives
- IPCC National Assessments
13Some Guiding Principles
- The Activities and Elements of a Service must
be User-Centric - Recognize evolving needs and capabilities
- Promote vigorous and comprehensive intersection
between knowledge and its use - Support through active research
- Evaluate and assess use and effectiveness
continuously
14Guiding Principles (continued)
- Scope of the knowledge base must be retrospective
and predictive - Continuous reliable accurate historical base
- Access to climate observations (includes paleo)
- Forecasts and outlooks month to a year out
- Causes and character of natural variability
- Long-term climate simulations
15Guiding Principles (continued)
- An adequate climate services knowledge base
requires active stewardship - Open and free exchange of data
- Ten basic principles of climate monitoring
- Multipurpose observations (in situ and satellite)
- Synergism observations and models
- Robust and easily accessible delivery system
- National modeling and analysis capability
- Dedicated computational capability
16Guiding Principles (continued)
- Active and Defined Participation of Governments
Business and Academia - Government public goods and services
protection of life and property - Business motivated by market forces/client
interests - Academia education and research/ interface with
government and business
17Key First Steps Toward a More Effective Climate
Service
- All agencies should ID climate-related observing
systems purpose management decision-makers - User-oriented experiments (free data access)
- Develop regional place-based laboratories
- Seek out opportunities to combine efforts to
serve multiple purposes - Create incentives incentive for 10 principles
and open exchange support growth in capability
designed by states or regions success of the
Oklahoma mesonet - Education initiatives
18Communication as an Integral Element
19 Communicating uncertainty should be an integral
part of providing information
- Uncertainty is key to decision-making
- State why information is uncertain not just the
fact that it is uncertain - State why information about uncertainty is
important - Use multiple measures of uncertainty
- Use multiple communication mechanisms
20 Communicating uncertainty and context shifts
the burden and responsibility appropriately to
the decision-maker
- Add context
- Communicate what you know as fully as possible
rather than only what you think the
decision-maker needs to know
21 Communication and dissemination of information
should be an integral part of the process not be
an afterthought
- Invest effort from the outset
- Education should be a goal
- Use multiple modes
22Communication between information providers
and users should not be a one-way street
two-way communication and feedback is essential
23 Success/failure/portrayal of forecasts
determine the credibility of future forecasts
- Expect mis-interpretation correct errors
quickly - Avoid over-selling forecasts or science
- Follow-up successful and failed forecasts with
information
24 Diverse and different forecasts from multiple
sources have both great value and have the
potential to create confusion
- Multiple forecasts drive improvement
- Use combined sources in providing information
(e.g. web page) - Label official and research forecasts to
limit confusion
25The Equivalent of an Environmental Situation
Room or Intel Center
- Foundation - Atmospheric Sciences
- Promote transition from research to operations
- Expand the forecasting family (Climate Service)
- Focus on Communication
- Create Regional integrated enterprises