ADVANCED KNOWLEDGE IS POWER

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ADVANCED KNOWLEDGE IS POWER

• Protect Life and Property
• Promote Economic Vitality
• Environmental Stewardship
• Promote Fundamental Understanding

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Science in Service to Society

• Arguments for a major transition

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The transition is a product of

• (a) significant improvements in capability and
  (b) demonstrated importance of the information
  for decision- makers

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Elements in the transition An expansion of the
forecasting family

• As a result of specific needs
• Air quality lightning energy demand uv severe
  weather evacuations agriculture etc.

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Elements in the transition An expansion in
the time scales of interest

• Instrumented and pre-instrumented records
• Weather forecasts
• Seasonal-to interannual outlooks
• Long-term climate change

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The Future Environmental Intel Center(s)
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Addressing Societal Needs

• Integrated Observation Systems
• Data management and access
• High Resolution coupled models
• Human Dimensions

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Some Steps in the Transition

• Promoting the transition from research to
  operations
• Adding Service to Climate
• Focus on Communication

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Transition from Research to Operations
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How Effective is our Transition Process

• A strong research program
• A healthy infrastructure for transition
• A strong interface with the user community
• International observation and data access
  partnerships
• Continuous evaluation processes

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Climate Services
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Evidence for a Growing DemandSome examples

• The Evolution of Hurricane Risk
• Application of ENSO Forecasts
• Weather Derivatives
• IPCC National Assessments

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Some Guiding Principles

• The Activities and Elements of a Service must
  be User-Centric
• Recognize evolving needs and capabilities
• Promote vigorous and comprehensive intersection
  between knowledge and its use
• Support through active research
• Evaluate and assess use and effectiveness
  continuously

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Guiding Principles (continued)

• Scope of the knowledge base must be retrospective
  and predictive
• Continuous reliable accurate historical base
• Access to climate observations (includes paleo)
• Forecasts and outlooks month to a year out
• Causes and character of natural variability
• Long-term climate simulations

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Guiding Principles (continued)

• An adequate climate services knowledge base
  requires active stewardship
• Open and free exchange of data
• Ten basic principles of climate monitoring
• Multipurpose observations (in situ and satellite)
• Synergism observations and models
• Robust and easily accessible delivery system
• National modeling and analysis capability
• Dedicated computational capability

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Guiding Principles (continued)

• Active and Defined Participation of Governments
  Business and Academia
• Government public goods and services
  protection of life and property
• Business motivated by market forces/client
  interests
• Academia education and research/ interface with
  government and business

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Key First Steps Toward a More Effective Climate
Service

• All agencies should ID climate-related observing
  systems purpose management decision-makers
• User-oriented experiments (free data access)
• Develop regional place-based laboratories
• Seek out opportunities to combine efforts to
  serve multiple purposes
• Create incentives incentive for 10 principles
  and open exchange support growth in capability
  designed by states or regions success of the
  Oklahoma mesonet
• Education initiatives

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Communication as an Integral Element
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Communicating uncertainty should be an integral
part of providing information

• Uncertainty is key to decision-making
• State why information is uncertain not just the
  fact that it is uncertain
• State why information about uncertainty is
  important
• Use multiple measures of uncertainty
• Use multiple communication mechanisms

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Communicating uncertainty and context shifts
the burden and responsibility appropriately to
the decision-maker

• Add context
• Communicate what you know as fully as possible
  rather than only what you think the
  decision-maker needs to know

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Communication and dissemination of information
should be an integral part of the process not be
an afterthought

• Invest effort from the outset
• Education should be a goal
• Use multiple modes

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Communication between information providers
and users should not be a one-way street
two-way communication and feedback is essential
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Success/failure/portrayal of forecasts
determine the credibility of future forecasts

• Expect mis-interpretation correct errors
  quickly
• Avoid over-selling forecasts or science
• Follow-up successful and failed forecasts with
  information

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Diverse and different forecasts from multiple
sources have both great value and have the
potential to create confusion

• Multiple forecasts drive improvement
• Use combined sources in providing information
  (e.g. web page)
• Label official and research forecasts to
  limit confusion

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The Equivalent of an Environmental Situation
Room or Intel Center

• Foundation - Atmospheric Sciences
• Promote transition from research to operations
• Expand the forecasting family (Climate Service)
• Focus on Communication
• Create Regional integrated enterprises