EJ Flooding the US

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EJ Flooding the US

• Roger Cooke
• 8-18-05

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History

• WASH 1400 (1975)
• IEEE Std 500 (1977)
• Canvey Island (1978)
• NUREG 1150 (1989)
• T-book (1994)
• USNRC-CEC (1995-1997)
• Guidance on Uncertainty and Use of Experts.
  NUREG/CR-6372, 1997
• Procedures Guide for Structured Expert Judgment,
  EUR 18820EN, 2000

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History (contd)

• US Office of Management and Budget circular A-4
  (2003)
• For regulatory rules that exceed 1 billion
  annual threshold, formal quantitative analysis
  of uncertainty is required.
• US National Research Council (2002/3)
• The Environ. Protection Agency is correct that
  the elicitation of expert opinions in the form of
  probability distributions is a difficult and
  uncertain process...The committee does not agree,
  however, that these difficulties are sufficient
  reason for not trying to obtain such advice.
  ...EPA should explore alternative options for
  incorporating expert judgment into its
  probabilistic uncertainty analyses.
• EPAs decision to incorporate only one source of
  uncertainty, random sampling erroris worth
  reconsideringits current practice produces
  health benefits probability distributions that
  give a misleading picture of the overall
  uncertainty (p.133)

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• US Environmental Protection Agency
• "These cancer guidelines are flexible enough to
  accommodate the use of expert elicitation to
  characterize cancer risks, as a complement to the
  methods presented in the cancer guidelines.
  According to NRC, the rigorous use of expert
  elicitation for the analyses of risks is
  considered to be quality science Guidelines for
  Carcinogen Risk Assessment, Risk Assessment Forum
  EPA 2005, p. 3-32).
• Resources for the Future
• Identifies a wide range of techniques for
  incorporating uncertainty into analyses and
  identifies the cobweb plot as a promising
  innovation Making regulatory choices, whats
  uncertainty got to do with it? Report to the US
  EPA, 2005, p.3

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EJ Methodology still under discussion

• To represent the overall community, if we wish
  to treat the outliers opinion as equally
  credible to the other panelists, we might
  properly assign a weight (in a panel of 5
  experts) of 1/100 to his or her position, not
  1/5
• Recommendations for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard
  AnalysisGuidance on Uncertainty and Use of
  Experts. NUREG/CR-6372, US Nuclear Regulatory
  Commission, 1997, p.36
• Increasingly, expert judgment is recognized as
  just another type of scientific data, and methods
  are developed fore treating it as such
• Procedures Guide EUR 18820

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Goals of an Expert Judgment Study

• Census
• Political Consensus
• Rational Consensus
• stakeholders pre-commit to method satisfying
  necessary conditions for rational consent
• withdraw post hoc only with arguments

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TU Delft EJ Database
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(No Transcript)
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Harvard Kuwait EJ Study

• For info on Harvard Kuwait EJ Study please
  contact Prof. Roger Cooke (cooke_at_rff.org)

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Met Dank aan
Sten de Wit Jan van Noortwijk Jacques
Offermans Bram Meima Maurits Bakker Marielle
Claessens Dionne Akkermans Tim Ter Haar Fred
Harper Mart Janssen Chris Verstegen Georgios
Sarigiannidis Simon French Jacques van Steen J.V.
Retief P.E. Dunaiski

• Louis Goossens
• Tim Bedford
• Willy Aspinall
• Bernd Kraan
• Arno Willems
• Karen Slijkhuis
• Martijn Frijters
• Qing Xu
• Frank van Overbeek
• Dorota Kurowicka
• Tom Mazzuchi
• Maarten Nauta
• Arie Havelaar
• Ine van der Fels
• Nicole van Elst
• J. Lopez de la Cruz