Brad Reed, USGS, Geography

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Phenology Networks and Implementation of a
USA-National Phenology Network
Brad Reed, USGS, Geography Julio Betancourt,
USGS, WRD Mike Dettinger, USGS, WRD Dan Cayan,
USGS, WRD Scripps Bruce Jones, USGS,
Geography Jack Waide, BRD DeWayne Cecil, GD
Global Vegetation Workshop 2006 August 7,
2006 Missoula, MT
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Study of the timing of recurring biological
phases, the causes of their timing with regard to
biotic and abiotic forces, and the interrelation
among phases of same or different species
PHENOLOGY
Phenophase-- budbreak, unfolding of first leaf,
flowering, fruiting, turning of leaves, animal
migration, emergence, growth stages, breeding,
nesting, hibernation, etc.
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• Why phenology is important
• Other Phenology Networks
• History of Phenological Monitoring in U.S.A
  Examples of Applications
• Recent efforts to organize USA-NPN
• Monitoring Structure of USA-NPN
• Linkages to Federal Programs

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I. Why phenology is important
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Phenology influences distribution, abundance
diversity of organisms, as well as their
interactions
Rocky Mtn. Biol. Laboratory
Mertensia virginica (bluebell)
Courtesy of David Inouye
Emergence is changing relative to flowering
Milberts tortoishell
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Phenology is an essential component of the
biosphere
Climate Temperature, Precipitation, Radiation,
Humidity, Wind
Chemistry CO2, CH4, N2O ozone, aerosols
CO2 CH4 N2O VOCs Dust
Heat Moisture Momentum
Minutes-To-Hours
Biogeophysics
Biogeochemistry
Carbon Assimilation
Decomposition
Water
Aero- dynamics
Energy
Mineralization
Microclimate Canopy Physiology
Phenology
Hydrology
Inter- cepted Water
Bud Break
Days-To-Weeks
Soil Water
Snow
Leaf Senescence
Species Composition Ecosystem Structure Nutrient
Availability Water
Evaporation Transpiration Snow Melt Infiltration R
unoff
GPP, Plant Microbial Respiration Nutrient
Availability
Ecosystems Species Composition Ecosystem Structure
WatershedsSurface Water Subsurface
Water Geomorphology
Years-To-Centuries
Disturbance Fires Hurricanes Ice Storms Windthrows
Vegetation Dynamics
Hydrologic Cycle
Bonan (2002) Ecological Climatology Concepts and
Applications. Cambridge University Press
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Amplification of seasonal cycle
Phenology modulates terrestrial carbon cycles at
multiple temporal spatial scales
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Different sensitivities with uniform 3ºC warming,
probably due to relative importance of advective
vs. radiative freezing
Mean length of historical (1950-1999) growing
season, defined as the longest interval in a
given year with no daily mean temp. in 3-day
periods lt 5ºC
0 15 30 60 90
0 91 182 273 366
Days per year
Days longer
Historical data from Variable Infiltration
Capacity model input fields (Maurer et al., 2002
)
Courtesy of Mike Dettinger, USGS
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II. Other Phenology Networks
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Jill Attenborough, Woodland Trust
157,000 observations from citizens In the UK in
spring 2005 alone!
http//www.phenology.org.uk
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Arnold van VlietWageningen University
5,000 observers in Holland in spring 2005!
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Elisabeth Beaubien Plantwatch National
Coordinator University of Alberta, Edmonton
www.naturewatch.ca
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III. History of Phenological Monitoring in
U.S.A Examples of Applications
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HISTORY OF WESTERN REGIONAL PHENOLOGY NETWORK

• Joe Caprio Agricultural Climatologist at Montana
  State Univ., Bozeman beginning in 1955
• Started lilac network in 1956 added honeysuckles
  in 1968
• Climatological observers, agric. forest
  stations, garden clubs
• Grew from 1000 observers in 11 states in 1956 to
  2500 observers in 12 states by 1970
• WRPN terminated when Caprio retired in 1994
• Eastern US Network started by W.L. Coville 1961,
  lost funding 1986, but continued since by Mark
  Schwartz
• Dan Cayan Mike Dettinger contacted Caprio in
  late 1990s reactivated network at two dozen
  sites
• Cayan et al. (2001) BAMS

By
Joseph M. Caprio
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Spring index based on first leaf date for lilacs
Syringa vulgaris (common lilac) Syringa
chinensis (cloned lilac)
Schwartz and Reiter 2000 International. J.
Climatology
First Leaf widest part of green leaf past brown
winter bud tips)
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Changes in Wildfire and the Timing of Spring in
Western US Forests A.L. Westerling, H.G. Hidalgo,
D.R. Cayan, T.W. Swetnam. Science (in review)
Correlation between large (gt 400 ha) forest
wildfire frequency streamflow center timing.
Fire Vulnerability associated with earlier spring
onset. Vulnerability change moisture deficit
with delayed spring onset, scaled by fraction of
forest area
Forest wildfire frequency for early, mid and late
tercile timing of spring since 1970.
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IV. Recent efforts to organize National
Phenology Network for the USA (USA-NPN)
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Key U.S.A. Phenology Meetings since 2004
Aug. 24-25, 2004, Tucson, AZ, NEON Ecological
Responses to Climate AIBS Workshop, (recommends
formation of a USA-NPN). Dec. 13-17, 2004 AGU
Fall Meeting in San Francisco, session on
Phenology and Global Change Patterns, Processes,
and Dynamics June 16 and 17, 2005, Lincoln, NE,
High Plains Initiative for Integrated Phenology,
Phenology and Environmental Change Challenges
and Opportunities Aug. 24-26, 2005, Tucson, AZ,
NSF Agency-Sponsored Workshop to Develop
Implementation Plan for a National Phenology
Network A December 5-9, 2005, AGU Fall Meeting
in San Francisco, CA, Land Surface Phenology
Characterization, Modeling, and Analysis of
Change March 22-24, 2006, March 22-24, 2006,
Tucson, AZ., USA-NPN Implementation Team Meeting
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James S. Clark, Duke University Clifford M. Dahm,
Univ. New Mexico Christopher B. Field, Stanford
Univ. Catherine A. Gehring, N. Arizona Univ.
Paul J. Hanson, Oak Ridge Natl. Lab. John Harte,
Univ. California, Berkeley Bruce P. Hayden, Univ.
of Virginia Alfredo R. Huete, Univ. of
Arizona Travis E. Huxman, Univ. of Arizona
Stephen T. Jackson, Univ. of Wyoming Linda A.
Joyce, U.S. Forest Service Alan K. Knapp,
Colorado State Univ. W. Arthur McKee, Univ. of
Montana Steven J. McNulty, U.S. Forest
Service James A. MacMahon, Utah State Univ. John
M. Melack, Univ. Calif-SB Barbara J. Morehouse,
Univ. of Arizona Richard J. Norby, Oak Ridge Natl
Lab. Dennis J. Ojima, Colorado State
Univ. Jonathan T. Overpeck, Univ. of
Arizona Debra P. Peters, USDA ARS, Jornada N.
LeRoy Poff, Colorado State Univ. Eric Post, Penn
State University. Hank J. Shugart, Univ. of
Virginia Stanley D. Smith, Univ. Nevada-LV Robert
G. Striegl, USGS Thomas W. Swetnam, Univ. of
Arizona Susan L. Ustin, Univ. California-Davis Tho
mas G. Whitham, N. Arizona Univ. Xubin Zeng,
University of Arizona
Convened by Julio Betancourt Pat Mulholland Dave
Breshears
http//www.neoninc.org
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Recommendations from NEON Climate Workshop

• Establish a National Phenology Network that
  includes public observers and leverages existing
  ecological networks
• Explore integration of NPN w/ Coop Network
  (NERON)
• develop a working group that includes phenology
  remote sensing experts
• a continental-scale network for regionally
  appropriate native plant species cloned
  indicator plants (e.g., lilac)
• thorough understanding of phenological cycles
  relationship to climate, hydrology, ecosystem
  processes
• comprehensive ground-truthing of green-up
  other remotely sensed phenology
• detect discriminate long-term phenological
  trends in response to long-term climate
  variability global warming

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Lilac West Meets Lilac East Joe Caprio and Mark
Schwartz meet for first time at USA-NPN Inaugural
Workshop, August 24-26, 2005, Tucson, AZ
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PREAMBLE Phenology is a far-reaching component
of environmental science but is poorly
understood. Critical questions include how
environmental factors affect the phenology of
different organisms, and how those factors vary
in importance on different spatial and temporal
scales. We need to know how phenology affects the
abundance and diversity of organisms, their
function and interactions in the environment,
especially their effects on fluxes in water,
energy, and chemical elements at various scales.
With sufficient observations and understanding,
phenology can be used as a predictor for other
processes and variables of importance at local to
global scales, and could drive a variety of
ecological forecast models with both scientific
and practical applications. USA-NPN
Implementation Team 4/16/06
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The predictive potential of phenological
phenomena requires a new data resource- a
national network of integrated phenological
observations and the tools to analyze them at
multiple scales. This network is essential to
evaluate ongoing environmental changes. It can
now capitalize on integration with other
observation networks and remote sensing products,
emerging technologies and data management
capabilities, myriad educational opportunities,
and a new readiness of the public to participate
in investigations of nature on a national scale.
USA-NPN Implementation Team 4/16/06
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USA-NPN Vision Statement USA-NPN will provide
phenological information that can be used to
understand the role of the timing of life cycle
events in the biosphere. It will establish a
nationwide network of phenological observations
with simple and effective means to input, report,
and utilize these observations, including the
resources to provide the right information at the
right time for a wide range of decisions made
routinely by individual citizens and by the
Nation as a whole. USA-NPN Implementation Team
4/16/06
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V. Monitoring Structure of USA-NPN
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USA-NPN Monitoring Framework
AmeriFlux, AgriFlux NSF LTER, NEON USGS
WEBB USDA FS Exp. F R
Intensive Sites
NWS Coop NPS Inv. Mon. USDA FIA
State Ag. Exp. Sta.
Spatially Extensive Science Networks
Increasing Process Knowledge Data Quality of
Measurements
Decreasing Spatial Coverage
GLOBE Garden clubs Nat. Plant Soc.
Campuses
Spatially Extensive Volunteer Education
Networks
NASA USGS NOAA
Remote Sensing and Synoptic (wall-to-wall) Data
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AmeriFlux Goal is to characterize processes by
which ecosystems exchange CO2, water and energy
with atmosphere
115 active sites 7 countries 50 research
teams Disturbance/ Climatic/Vegetation gradients
NPN Tier 1 Example of Intensive Sites
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Opportunities for USA-NPN Colocation with NWS
Cooperative Observer Program (COOP)
Tier 2 Example of Spatially Extensive Science
Network
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Data Collection and Transmission at Modernized
NWS COOP Sites (NOAAs Environmental Real-Time
Observation Network- NERON)
8,000 sites
As many complementary measurements as possible
from other networks (both federal and
non-federal) will be integrated through COOPs
Central Facility
NPN could Horse-trade new weather stations in
natural areas (e.g., high elev) for phenological
observations at COOP NERON sites
Phenological Observations
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Tier 3 Example Of Volunteer Education Networks
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Tier 3 Example Of Volunteer Education Networks
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http//www.uwm.edu/Dept/Geography/npn/
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http//www.uwm.edu/Dept/Geography/npn/
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Want to track global warming in your own
backyard? A program funded in part by the
National Science Foundation is recruiting citizen
scientists to note when lilacs, honeysuckles and
other plants first leaf out and bloom. The data
will help scientists track the arrival of spring,
which since 1955 is coming about six days earlier
in the Northern Hemisphere, says Mark Schwartz, a
climatologist at the University of
Wisconsin-Milwaukee. Coordinated by Schwartz and
Julio Betancourt, a senior scientist with the
U.S. Geological Survey, the program aims to build
a network of observers to track changes in how
plants respond to the weather. Several
universities and federal agencies also are
participating, as are elementary and high school
students across the country. To find out more,
check the home page of the National Phenology
Network.
Tuesday, May 30, 2006
Lilacs know what day it is
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NPN-Tier 4 REMOTE SENSING can fill gaps between
ground observations to produce a continuous
surface of phenology estimates at the continental
scale
Land surface phenology metrics, based on
time-series Vegetation Index
Start of season End of season Duration of
season Peak season Seasonally integrated
vegetation index
Satellite SOS vs. GPP estimates (USDA-AgriFlux)
Days offset n 13 x 2.23 std 8.21
-10
5
1999
2000
Mandan, ND
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Remote Sensing Objectives Of USA-NPN

• provide ground truth to make the most of the
  public investment in remote sensing data
• relate remote sensing estimates to meaningful
  biophysical attributes
• allow detailed biophysical inputs into a variety
  of models (move from on/off parameters to nuanced
  values)
• facilitate thorough understanding of phenological
  phenomena, including causes and effects

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VI. Linkages to Federal Programs
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Programs that could contribute to/benefit from
USA-NPN NPS Inventory and Monitoring (Vital
Signs Monitoring) USFS Wildlife Refuges,
Migratory Birds, Game Animals NASA phenology
white paper has been prepared in support of
Climate Data Records for NPOESS Applied
Sciences (Invasive species, ecological
modeling, agricultural efficiency, carbon
management) NASA climate modeling
Terrestrial hydrology program DOE AmeriFlux,
Biological Environmental Research NIH
Allergens, Infectious Diseases NSF LTER, LTREB,
NEON, Funding programs (e.g., RCN)
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NOAA Climate Program Regional Integrated
Science and Assessments (RISA) Regional Climate
Centers State Climatologists NERON National
Integrated Drought Information System USDA-FS F
orest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) Cooperative
State Research Education and Extension Service
(CSREES) Risk Management Agency
(RMA) Agricultural Research Service
(ARS) Economic Research Service
(ERS) Experimental Forests (FS is working toward
a nationwide network of 80 Forests)
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RELEVANT USGS PROGRAMS
BRD Biological Informatics (NBII) Terrestrial,
Freshwater and Marine Ecosystems (Global
Change, BRD, Place-Based Studies) Invasive
Species (Invasive Spp. Forecasting
System) Status and Trends of Biological
Resources (Biological Inventory
Monitoring) Wildlife Terrestrial and Endangered
Resources Gap Analysis Program
(GAP) GEOG Geographic Analysis and
Monitoring Land Remote Sensing WRD Hydroclimatol
ogy Program Water availability and use
programs Ground-water Resources Program Water,
Energy and Biogechemical Budgets (WEBB) GD Earth
Surface Dynamics
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USA-NPN needs a stable mechanism- a national
coordinating office - in place to help build and
implement the network of support and coop
agreements essential for its long-term success.
This seems a logical niche for USGS. USGS
scientists in three disciplines are already
playing key roles in the genesis of USA-NPN, and
the bureaus mission is obviously complementary
to that of USA-NPN. USGS also has the necessary
multidisciplinary scientific expertise,
capability in informatics and remote sensing, and
observational network experience to contribute to
and benefit from USA-NPN right away. There are
several ways for USGS to contribute to USA-NPN-
e.g. providing an Executive Director that
would offer many potential benefits to existing
bureau programs. At hand is a unique opportunity
to increase collaboration with other federal
agencies and the academic community, and to
better serve public needs in Agriculture,
Commerce, Education, Health, Recreation, and
Natural Resources.
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Propose that USGS hire the Executive Director of
USA-NPN
Ensure USA-NPN response to needs of USGS
disciplines other agencies within DOI and the
US Govt Serve as nucleus for research
applications in broader scientific and user
communities Develop, coordinate and advocate
phenological research within USGS Secure funding
for network implementation Extend phenological
observations across existing environmental
networks through negotiation and interagency
agreements Direct data management
Coordinate integration of spatial, analytical and
climate data to achieve the wall-to-wall
objectives of this continental network Desired
technical knowledge in spatial analysis,
including remote sensing, data management,
network development, and ecological modeling
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Thank You!