Sustainable North Pacific Natural ResourceDependent Coastal Communities SocialEcological Systems Und

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Sustainable North Pacific Natural
Resource-Dependent Coastal CommunitiesSocial-Ecol
ogical Systems Under Climate ChangeVincent
Gallucci vgallucc_at_u.washington.eduRobert Foy
foy_at_sfos.uaf.eduMarc L. Miller
mlmiller_at_u.washington.edu
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• Quantitative Responses
• Complex adaptive systems
• Four phase cycle
• r-phase growth/harvest freely
• K-phase consolidation/conserve
• ?-phase collapse/release
• Apply locally beginning in different phases
• Mathematical/Statistical models

• Management Policy Responses
• Ecosystem Management
• Adaptive Policy/Law
• -Magnuson Stevens Act
• -Endangered Species
• -Marine Mammal
• Future Protections
• -Elasmobranchs/other
• Strategies
• -Transform to new state by education
• -Enhance adaptability and sustainability
• -Decrease risk forecasting
• -Increase resiliency

Quantitative Responses 1. Stock
assessment 2. Risk Analysis 3.
Resilience framework 4. Adaptive cycle theory

• Management Policy Responses
• Implement broad coastal zone resource dependent
  community policy
• Adapt to new species introductions
• Adapt to broad and local extinctions
• Government/NGO

• Community Responses
• Objective To develop resilience
• BOTTOM UPseek to enhance resilience
• TOP DOWNfor minimally resilient/sustainable,
  manage policy to assist
• Government Policies
• Innovation

• Decadal Oscillations

Climate change

• Warming

• El Nino

Trophic Interactions (Food web)
Responses Uncertainty in climate change and in
trophic respect
Trophic Interaction Responses
Community Responses

• Adaptive response of communities
• Cultural resiliency Mythoscape
• Social-ecological societies (SES) (ability to
  absorb disturbance)
• Adaptation under globalization

FisheriesCommercial - Artisanal Mammals Cetaceans
/Pinnipeds Sharks Piscivorous Groundfish Salmon/Po
llock/Herring Smelt/Squid/Euphausiids

• Subsistence and Employment
• Traditional/Ceremonial
• Fishery
• Tourism

Migration Regime Shift
ExtinctionsRange extensions
Temporal scale of response to climate change
From Berkes and Jolly 2001