Tackling the Climate Change challenge with TNC land stewards Dr. Dominique Bachelet Director of Clim - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Tackling the Climate Change challenge with TNC land stewards Dr. Dominique Bachelet Director of Clim

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phenology (pollination), pollution (ozone-Ndep), invasives, CO2 growth effect, ... phenology network . Document urbanization, ag land development, ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Tackling the Climate Change challenge with TNC land stewards Dr. Dominique Bachelet Director of Clim


1
Tackling the Climate Changechallenge with TNC
land stewardsDr. Dominique BacheletDirector of
Climate Change Sciencefor The Nature Conservancy
and Assoc. Prof. Oregon State University
2
TNC (The Nature Conservancy) 2015
goal protect 10 of all major habitats by
year 2015 through purchases, conservation
easements, collaborations and partnerships Wild
card will CLIMATE CHANGE make this an
unsustainable goal?
3
Global Climate Change Science Team Task Inform
and help land managers design adaptation
strategies 1. What does the future hold? 2.
Prioritize areas most/least at risk 3. Provide
guidance to preserve habitat/services/species
4
Terrestrial Historical climate variability 1.
Climatology long term time series (data gaps,
reliability, interpolation methods, temporal and
spatial res., variables of interest) ex. funding
and hardware to run OSU PRISM to generate gridded
climate datasets (800m USA, 800m China, 450m
Hawaii) 2. Climatic cycles (El Nino, PDO, NAO),
climate shifts, trend analysis
5
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6
What does the future hold? No crystal ball .
Climate change scenarios (anomalies, resolution,
political decisions and social choices) . Sea
level rise scenarios (unknowns) . Sea surface
temperature scenarios and also unpredictable
extreme events
7
Variable Outcomes 1st source of
uncertainty Increase (oC) in minimum temperature
between 2070-2099 and 1961-1990
MIROC Japan
A2 Growth
A1B 750ppm in 2100
B1 550ppm in 2100
HADLEY U.K.
A2 Growth
A1B 750ppm in 2100
B1 550ppm in 2100
Source CRU, PCMDI, WGCM, WCRP CMIP3, USFS,OSU
CSIRO Australia
A2 Growth
A1B 750ppm in 2100
B1 550ppm in 2100
8
General Circulation Models must be downscaled
Variety of methods - 2nd source of
uncertainty/error
Resolution problems with coasts and Islands
9
3rd source of uncertainty Impact model
assumptions and limitations
Hamann and Wang, Ecology 2006
10
Confounding factors natural climate
variability (weak predictions of future
monsoons, PDOs), altered frequency of extreme
events, change in pests/pathogens life cycles,
shift in phenology (pollination), pollution
(ozone-Ndep), invasives, CO2 growth effect,
fire-drought-interactions, fire-invasives
interactions, changes in soil fauna/flora, ...
11
1m or 6m? impacts on/of future ecorefugees
Inundated area 347,680 km2 Population affected
46,683,288
gt10 World Population live in coastal areas
Inundated area 630,490 km2 Population affected
209,142,000
12
Impacts of Climate Change have to be placed in
the context of land use change and other human
impacts
1979
2004
13
Human impacts are ubiquitous
14
Complexity inherent to future projections
Curse of knowledge ("Made to stick") Sin of
omission ("Useless arithmetics")
15
1 . DATABASE DEVELOPMENT
. Design easily accessible database tracking
changes in land cover such as RS images (35yrs)
in collaboration with monitoring networks
fluxnet, LTER, NEON, GLORIA, phenology
network . Document urbanization, ag land
development, past land management (rotation,
grazing, fire history...) human landuse gt
CC . Record key ecological attributes endemic
species, endangered species, C sequestration
potential, genetic variability, potential
climatic thresholds, invasives, FRI . Document
socio-economic and cultural attributes sacred
site, World Heritage site, ecotourism
destination, health concerns
16
. Generate and store HR climate time series to
document past climate variability . Centralize
future scenarios climate, SLR, SST, veg. shifts,
C . Develop expert systems to play "what if"
games with management options such as fire
prescription/prevention, plantation, irrigation,
various grazing pressure ...
2. VISUALIZATION TOOLS Design google-earth like
tool where database information can be draped
over site DEM as snapshot images or movies or LT
averages etc.
17
Potential Problems . .Data availability and
management updates, long term investment
staff/hardware/software . Storage
capacity/hardware size of input/output time
series, RS products . File format (ascii,
netcdf) compatibility, visualization/data
analysis, QA/QC . Display of assumptions,
uncertainty and error users do not read
documentation . Semantics invasives vs
ecorefugees, introduced vs migrating sp .
Institutional inertia and lack of funding
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