Climate Change and Greenmarket Farms: Impacts and Adaptations

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Climate Change and Greenmarket Farms Impacts
and Adaptations

• Ruthie Oland, Environmental Science Dept.,
  Barnard College
• Research Mentor Cynthia Rosenzweig, Ph.D.,
  NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies
• Seminar Advisor Martin Stute, Ph.D.,
  Environmental Science Dept., Barnard College

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Reasons for Research-AGRICULTURE-Diversified
Farms in Southern New York

• It is likely that northeastern agriculture will
  be particularly sensitive to climate change due
  to the cost of adaptation (source NAST)
• Most climate change impacts research on
  agriculture has focused on major world trade
  crops such as wheat, soybeans, and corn (source
  NAST)
• Farms in the Northeast region are vital to the
  economy of rural areas and fill an important role
  of delivering fresh, high quality and affordable
  local produce to venues such as Greenmarket
  (source NAST)

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Rosenzweig and Solecki, Metro East Coast
Assessment
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Broome County, NY
Greenmarket Farms
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Crop Growth Simulation-DSSAT3, A Decision
Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer-

• Model Calibration
• Sensitivity Tests
• Global Climate Model Scenarios
• Adaptation Strategies

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Model Parameters for Broome County, NY

• Cultivar
• B59C103, B14C103, A632 x W117
• Soil Type
• Deep Silty Loam, Medium Silty Loam, Deep Sandy
  Loam
• Planting Date
• April 21, April 30, May 9

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Best Fitting Parameters

• Cultivar
• A632 x W117
• Soil Type
• Medium Silty Loam
• Planting Date
• April 21

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Reasons for Anomalies

• Pests
• Lightening/Severe Storm Damage
• Dishonest Yield Reporting

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Sensitivity to Temperature
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Sensitivity to Precipitation
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Global Climate Model Scenarios

• Goddard Institute for Space Studies A2
• Accounts for future increase of pollution and
  urbanization
• Goddard Institute for Space Studies B2
• A more moderate scenario that many consider to be
  more likely

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Results

• Yields responded strongly to increases in
  temperature
• Season length decreased by 10 days in A2 2020
  scenario
• Galloping phenology
• Growth rate and duration of growing period

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Next Steps

• Direct CO2 for Plants
• Adaptation Scenarios
• Incorporate stakeholder strategies

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