Title: Longitudinal Analysis of Benefits Data for Workless People
1Longitudinal Analysis of Benefits Data for
Workless People
- Chelsie Anttila
- Social Disadvantage Research Centre (SDRC)
- University of Oxford
2Overview of the work
- Changing patterns of worklessness in Wales
- Follow on from earlier work, e.g. Claiming
Matters, 2004 - Worklessness defined as involuntary exclusion
from labour market. This definition includes - Unemployed people claiming Job Seekers Allowance
(JSA) - Sick people claiming Incapacity Benefit/Severe
Disablement Allowance (IB/SDA)
3Data sources
- DWPs Tabulation Tool
- (http//www.dwp.gov.uk/asd/tabtool.asp)
- DWP HMRC WPLS
4WPLS
- Work and Pensions Longitudinal Study
- Changes to data protection law in 2002 allowed
the DWP to - Receive data on employment from Her Majestys
Revenues and Customs and - Link it to the DWPs benefit database.
- Result was the WPLS database
5Uses of WPLS
- December 2003, Parliament stated that
- WPLS will be used for statistics and research
- Aid in the investigation of benefit fraud
- Improve the way initiatives are targeted
- Modernise DWP statistics (replaced 5 sample Oct.
2005) - WPLS database was introduced in January 2004 but
contains data back to 1999
6Advantages of WPLS over other administrative data
- Unprecedented capacity to link benefit and
employment claims - Unlike other admin data, WPLS is a single
database including all benefits and spell dates - Able to detect short claims, WPLS takes extracts
in shorter intervals (2, 4, or 6 weeks)
7WPLS Overview
- Three parts
- DWP claimant records
- DWP HMRC records
- HMRC records
- We use parts 1 2
- Focus on those of working age
- About 10 million records at individual level,
most with claimants home postcode
8Limitations of WPLS
- Not all employment spells captured
- Taxable benefit spells may appear as employment
- Subject to revision
- Good news because data is constantly improved
- Bad news because work/information can become out
of date - Large dataset cumbersome time consuming to use
- Remains the best data source available
9Overview of worklessness in Wales, 1999-2005
10Worklessness in Wales England, 1999-2005
11Welsh JSA caseload by age group, 1999 2005
12Welsh IB/SDA caseload by age group, 1999 2005
13What happens to the workless population over time?
- Matching the claimant population on one date
with the claimant population on a subsequent date
to study transitions/trajectories - Three main destinations
- Claiming the same workless benefit as at previous
time point - Claiming another workless benefit (i.e. switch
from JSA to IB/SDA or vice versa) - Not claiming any workless benefit
142005 destinations of 1999 JSA claimants
15Of course, its not quite that straightforward
16Trajectories of Welsh 1999 JSA claimants
17More detail on JSA exiters
182005 destinations of 1999 IB/SDA claimants
19More detail on IB/SDA exiters
20Worklessness rates in Welsh and English local
authorities in 2005, ranked in order
21Changes in worklessness rates in Welsh local
authorities, 1999-2001, 2001-2003 and 2003-2005
22Changes in unemployment rates in Welsh local
authorities, 1999-2001, 2001-2003 and 2003-2005
23Changes in work-limiting illness rates in Welsh
local authorities, 1999-2001, 2001-2003 and
2003-2005
242005 Destinations of 1999 JSA claimants by LA
252005 Destinations of 1999 JSA claimants in Wales
262005 Destinations of 1999 IB/SDA claimants in
Wales
27Separating LSOAs into deciles by percentage point
changes in unemployment rates
28Separating LSOAs into deciles by percentage point
changes in work-limiting illness rates
29Swansea as case study
- Among the 50 most work deprived local
authorities in Wales (ranked 8 out of 22, where 1
is the most deprived, in both 1999 and 2005) - Home to both the most and the least deprived
LSOAs in all Wales, both in terms of overall
worklessness and work-limiting illness/disability - 147 LSOAs in Swansea, rates of worklessness
ranged from 1.0 to 53.5 in 1999 and from 0.9
to 55.3 in 2005 - Highest worklessness rates in 025A, Castle ward
- 3rd highest worklessness rate in England and
Wales in 2005 - Home to Swansea Castle, rail station, possibly
BBs, temporary accommodation - large proportion (about 63) of the working age
population are men - more than 63 of men in the area were workless in
1999 as compared to about 40 of women - Lowest worklessness rates in 023A, Killay North
ward - Home to a nature reserve, student housing and
academic departments of University College
Swansea - 28th lowest worklessness rate in England and
Wales in 2005
30Example of Swansea 001B
- Pontardulais ward, north west boundary of LA
- Moved from the most deprived decile in 1999 into
the 30 least deprived of LSOAs in Wales in 2005
31Conclusion
- Worklessness rates in an area can decrease while
people in that area remain workless - Importance of studying workless people in
addition to workless places - E.g. Rates of unemployment in Communities First
areas may be decreasing, but experimental models
show no positive significant impact on likelihood
of unemployed individual moving into work
32Conclusion
- While person and place-based initiatives can
both be effective, their relative effectiveness
cannot yet be adequately addressed. However, the
development of datasets that link
individual-level information over a prolonged
period of time may soon make this possible, if
only retrospectively. If more is to be learned
from the next generation of evaluations, it must
always be clear how policies are expected to
work, and these theories of change must inform
the design of impact and process evaluations and
the interpretation of the results.