Hydrology and Water Management Applications of GCIP Research

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Hydrology and Water Management Applications of
GCIP Research

• Dennis P. Lettenmaier
• Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
• University of Washington
• for presentation at
• Stakeholder Session
• Mississippi River Climate and Hydrology
  Conference
• New Orleans
• May 14, 2002

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GEWEX and GCIP Goals

• Scientific goal To observe and model the
  hydrologic cycle and energy fluxes in the
  atmosphere, and at the land and ocean surface
• Applications goal Demonstrate skill in
  predicting changes in water resources on time
  scales up to seasonal, annual and interannual

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GCIP Contributions for Water Management

• Data sets
• Macroscale land surface model development and
  improvements
• Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS)
• Forecast method and product development

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Data Sets

• Many, key examples include
• WSR-88d retrospective archive (1996-2000)
• GOES solar radiation
• LDAS retrospective (model forcing, e.g.,
  precipitation, and model-derived, e.g., soil
  moisture)
• LDAS real time

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LDAS Modeling Domain

• Domain is North America between 25º and 53º N
• Resolution 1/8º
• 77,000 grid cells through domain (56,000 in
  Continental U.S.)
• Model developed for 15 sub-regions
• Model forcing data (1949-2000) derived from
  observations
• Run at a 3-hour time step

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LDAS Derived Soil Moisture - Active Range

• Long term spatial data set allows
  characterization of variability
• Dynamic range of the soil column
• Degree to which source of variability (P) is
  buffered by soil column
• Level of hydrologic interaction of soil column

50-Year Soil Moisture Range Scaled by Annual
Precipitation
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Macroscale land surface model development and
improvements
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VIC Hydrologic Model
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Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS)
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LDAS land surface model (LSM) and coupled model
interaction
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LDAS real-time soil moisture
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Forecast method and product development
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Coupled GCM
Embedded Regional CM
Macro-Scale Hydrology Model (VIC)
SST Forecast
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How NCEP makes experimental ensemble climate
forecasts
Coupled Ocean-AGCM
Initial and Predicted SST for next 6 months
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GSM PCP
OBS PCP
PROB
PROB
RAW FORECAST PCP
BIAS-CORR PCP
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East CoastApr 00 forecast for May-Jun-Jul
forecast median shown as percentile of
climatology ensemble
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CRB May forecast
forecast
hindcast observed
forecast medians
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CRBMay Forecastcumulative flow averages
forecast medians
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Information Xfer to Stakeholders How well did
GCIP succeed in demonstrating skill?

• Conclusion Quite well, if the goal is taken
  literally
• but
• Demonstrated use of GCIP products by water
  managers is minimal
• why?

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• Scientists are not particularly skilled, or even
  interested in, technology transfer
• Practitioners are stuck in paradigm lock
  institutional inertia on algorithms and methods
• GCIP/GAPP has provided science, not applications
  funding -- focus on many small projects of
  limited duration discourages long-term view
• Possible solution better liaison with RISAs as
  mechanism for breaking paradigm lock