Seismoionospheric anomalies registered by groundbased GPS and LEO GPS occultation

1
Seismo-ionospheric anomalies registered by
ground-based GPS and LEO GPS occultation

• Zhou Yiyan, Wu Yun, Qiao Xuejun
• Institute of Seismology, CEA, Wuhan, China
• E-mail zhouyyhb_at_yahoo.com.cn

2
outline

• Background
• Review of the typical earthauqkes
• Earthquake analysis
• Discussion and conclusion

3
Background

• Before earthquake prediction becomes a reality we
  have to identify earthquake precursors.
• The Great Alaska earthquake on 27 March, 1964
  (Davies et al,1965).
• The large amount of seismo-ionospheric
  precursors were reported (Calais et
  al,1994Chmyrev et al,1997Liu J Y et
  al,2001,2002,2004Trigunait et al,2004Pulinets
  et al, 2004)

4
Review of the typical earthquakes (1)
Ionospheric ?f0F2 anomalies with combination of
ground-based data and satellite data (Pulinets et
al, 2004)
48 hours before the event
29 hours before the event
24 hours before the event
Conjugated modified area
18 hours after the event
24 hours after the event
Irpinia , M6.9, on 23 November,
1980 Intercosmos-19 Satellite (quake in middle
latitude )
Alaska earthquake M8.5, on 27 March,
1964 Alouette-1 Satellite and ionosondes (quake
in high latitude)
New Guinea M7.3, at 1956UT,on 16 July 1980
Intercosmos-19 Satellite (quake in low
latitude/equator)
5
Review of the typical earthquake (2)
Median previous 1-15 day running median UBMIQR
LBM-IQR IQRUQ-LQ
Upper Bound
Median
Low Bound
Observation
Chi-Chi earthquake Variation of foF2
Chi-Chi earthquake Variation of VTEC
Liu et al. GRL, 2000
Liu et al. Annales. Geophysicae., 2004
6
Difference between Observations and the Median of
NmF2 and GPS TEC for ML ? 6.0 Earthquakes
the statistical results in Taiwan (Liu JY)
Similary characters simultaneouswithin 3 days
before earthquakeidentical period(1200LT-1700LT)
7
Ground-based GPS and LEO GPS occultation
Sketch of ground-based GPS TEC observation
Sketch of LEO GPS ionospheric occultation
8
The locations of the GPS receivers and examined
earthquakes
?-GPS station, ?-earthquake
9
The Jiashi earthquake( 39.5N, 77.2E )with
Ms6.6 occurred at 1003LT (LTUT5h) on 24
February 2003.
The K index at URUM geomagnetic station in
February 2003.
The series of VTEC at TASH station (150km from
epicenter) in February 2003 (UT).
The series of VTEC at WUSH station (200km from
epicenter) in February 2003 (UT).
10
The Dayao earthquake (26.0N, 101.2E) with
Ms6.3 occurred at 2316LT (LTUT6h) on 21 July
2003, in Yunnan province, China.
The K index at TONH geomagnetic station in July
2003.
The series of VTEC at XIAG station (100km from
epicenter) in July 2003 (UT).
The series of VTEC at KMIN station (180km from
epicenter) in July 2003 (UT).
11
The zhongba earthquake (30.5N, 83.4E) Ms6.7
occurred at 0708LT (LTUT5h) on 12 July 2004,
in Tibet, China.
The series of VTEC at LHAS station (650km from
epicenter) in July 2004 (LT).
12
In addition, we also examined 11 earthquakes with
Ms5.5 in China, 7 of which show the VTEC
decrease on the whole within 6 days prior to
earthquake.
13
GPS radio occultation missions
In the past ten years, with the successful launch
of GPS/MET, Orsted, SUNSAT, SAC-C, CHAMP and
GRACE, especially COSMIC constellation, the GPS
occultation ability to explore the ionosphere has
been improved.
14
COSMIC Project, UCAR(USA) and NSPO (China
Taiwan) 6 Satellite Constellation with
72inclination, 850km attitude
COSMIC (24 hs.) occultation events distribution
15
Kuril islands earthquake with Ms8.0 in Japan.
The earthquake occurred at 2114LT (LTUT10h) on
15 November 2006.


16


17


Earthquake occurred at 1114UT.
18


The left picture is the electron density
profiles, while the right picture is the
corresponding tangent point track of occultation
event. The little circle denotes the epicenter.
19
The Haixi earthquake with Ms5.3 occurred at
0949LT (LTUT6h) on 25 February 2007, in the
border area between Tibet and Qinghai province,
China. The epicenter was located at 33.3N,
90.7E geographic region.


20

Earthquake occurred at 0149UT.

21

The left picture is the electron density
profiles, while the right picture is the
corresponding tangent point track of occultation
event. The little circle denotes the epicenter.

22
Discussionpossible mechanisms of
seismo-ionospheric effect

• internal gravity waves (IGW) or acoustic gravity
  waves (AGW) derived from the ground movement or
  lithospheric gas release (Garmash et al,1989
  Linkov et al, 1991 Voitov and Dobrovolsky,
  1994 Shalimov and Gokhberg, 1998)
• the abnormal electro-magnetic (EM) fields and
  emissions (Gokhberg et al, 1982 Hayakawa and
  Fujinawa, 1994 Hayakawa et al, 2000 Hayakawa
  and Molchanov, 2002 Pulinets et al, 2004)
• The gravity wave derived from the ground movement
  could not cause VTEC obvious dectease (Pulinets
  et al, 2004).
• To explain the EM mechanism, a variety of
  possible sources have been proposed
  piezoelectric potentials of quartz (Ogawa and
  Utada, 2000 Yoshida and Ogawa, 2004) streaming
  potentials by moving ground water (Mizutani et
  al, 1976 Kormiltsev et al, 1998) emanation of
  special gases (Sorokin et al, 2001 Rapoport et
  al, 2004 Pulinets et al, 2004) tribological
  electromagnetics (Enomoto and Hashimoto, 1990
  Takeuchi et al, 2004), and moving dislocations
  (Hadjicontis and Mavromatou, 1995 Teisseyre,
  2001 Varotsos et al, 2001), mobiling positive
  holes in igneous rocks (PHs, F. Freund ,2000,
  2002a, 2003)

23
Pre-seismic Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere
coupling
See Poster P11 (Kamogawa, submitted to EOS,
2006)
24
simulation test
In general, the electric field is about
1-2mV/m in the ionosphere over the equator under
clear sky, the electron drift velocity is about
20-40m/s but, if the extra electric field
?E10mV/m induced by earthquake (Sorokin, 2005),
the electron drift velocity will remarkably
increase. (if the up electric field is orthogonal
to the magnetic one , so ? v 250m/s , if angle
between electric field and magnetic one is 60,
so ? v 216m/s ) simulation
test(ionosphere modle -SAMI2) at point (25N,
120E) A (quiet) v 50m/s B
(disturbance) v 150m/s C (deviation) B-A
????,
?
??,??
?????,
????,
?
???60,??
?
25
0000
0200
0400
0600
A
B
C
26
1000
1200
1400
0800
A
B
C
27
2200
2000
1600
1800
A
B
C
28
conclusion

• the ionospheric anomalies appear a few days/hours
  prior to earthquakes .
• seismic activity is possible a source of the
  ionospheric anomalies.
• ionospheric precursors have the relatively stable
  time of appearance in comparison with other kind
  of precursors, which makes them very valuable in
  the short-term earthquake prediction.
• It is feasible to monitor the seismo-ionospheric
  effect by ground-based GPS and LEO GPS
  occultation.

29
Thanks for your attention !