Energy consumption in the U'S' and the world has shown a very predictable trend of decarbonization'

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Introduction
Energy consumption in the U.S. and the world has
shown a very predictable trend of
decarbonization. Future U.S. energy consumption
will be increasingly dominated by natural gas.
Research and technology have been there all the
way, responding as needed to the forces of
supply, price, policy, and efficiency.
Basic energy research should focus on advanced
characterization for enhanced oil production and
advanced fracture, salt, and seismic analysis for
natural gas exploration and development.
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World Energy Consumption
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After Hefner, 1993
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U.S. vs. World Energy Consumption
1
0
0
8
0
6
0
Percentage of total market
4
0
2
0
0
Year
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EIA production data
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U.S. Energy Consumption
1970
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U.S. Energy Consumption
1970
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U.S. Energy Consumption
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U.S. Energy Consumption 50-Year Forecast
EIA historical production data
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U.S. Energy Consumption Drivers

• Methane, hydrogen, nuclear, renewables
• Efficiency high
• Economic stability improved
• National security risks lower
• Environmental impact lower
• Methane abundant
• Hydrogen sustainable
• Current cost/benefit is lower
• Practical limits (10)
• Hidden environmental costs

• Solids
• Efficiency Poor
• Environmental Costs

• Oil
• Economic Impact of Price Fluctuations
• National Security Impact of Import Ratio
• Efficiency Less Than Gas
• Environmental Impact Moderate

EIA historical production data
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Oil
Exploration Access Assess Development Reservoir
characterization Field management Environment
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Impact of Oil Research
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Theoretical Impact on Long-Term Oil Decline
Multifield portfolio
Production
0
5
10
15
Time (yr)
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U.S. Oil Production
10000000
9000000
8000000
7000000
6000000
Average daily oil production (bbl)
5000000
4000000
2,000,000,000 barrels over 20 years 50 billion
gross oil value (25 oil)
3000000
2000000
1000000
1949
1953
1957
1961
1965
1969
1973
1977
1981
1985
1989
1993
1997
Year
EIA (1949-1990) and NPC (1991-2015)
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U.S. Natural Gas
EIA (1949-1990) and NPC (1991-2015)
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Unconventional Gas
Tight gas Shale gas Coalbed methane Deep
gas Subsalt gas Gas hydrates Low-pressure gas
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Impact of Natural Gas Research Tight Gas
4,000.0
3,500.0
3,000.0
2,500.0
2,000.0
Bcf
1,500.0
State of Texas tight gas incentives
1,000.0
500.0
0.0
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
GRI, 1999, GRIs Gas Resource Database. DOE
personal communication.
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MAJOR PRODUCTIVE TIGHT GAS BASINS (technically
recoverable resources)
San Juan (5.6 Tcf)
Data NPC (2000) based on estimates of NPC
(1993) San Juan Basin tight gas resource
included with oil field reserve appreciation and
new fields in NPC (2000).
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Impact of Natural Gas Research Shale Gas
Antrim Shale research Appalachian Basin shales
350.0
300.0
250.0
200.0
Bcf
150.0
100.0
DOE (1976-1992)
50.0
0.0
1980
1985
1990
1995
GRI, 1999, GRIs Gas Resource Database DOE
personal communication.
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MAJOR PRODUCTIVE DEVONIAN SHALE
BASINS (technically recoverable resources)
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Impact of Natural Gas Research Coalbed Methane
1,200.0
1,000.0
800.0
2
600.0
Bcf
Wellhead price (/Mcf)
400.0
200.0
1
0.0
1980
1985
1990
1995
GRI, 1999, GRIs Gas Resource Database DOE
personal communication.
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MAJOR PRODUCTIVE COALBED METHANE BASINS (total
most likely resources)
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MAJOR PRODUCTIVE DEEP-WATER GAS BASINS (total
most likely resources)
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MAJOR PRODUCTIVE DEEP (gt15,000 ft) GAS
BASINS (total most likely resources)
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Natural Gas Resources
1,400
1,200
1,000
Lower 48 total
800
Technically recoverable (Tcf)
Canada total
600
SW
400
200
0
Cumulative production
Proven reserves
Unproven
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SW Natural Gas Resources
Gas Reserves by Region
Permian Basin
80,000
San Juan Basin
Texas Gulf Coast Onshore
Arkla-East Texas
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
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SW Natural Gas Resources
Unconventional versus Conventional Gas Reserves
70,000
Conventional
60,000
Unconventional
50,000
40,000
Reserve reserves (Bcf)
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
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SW Natural Gas Resources
Unconventional Gas Production in Permian Basin
500
Tight gas
400
300
Production (Bcf)
200
100
0
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
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Oil and Gas Geoscience Research

• High-frequency stratigraphy seismic outcrops
• 4-C 3-D, 4-D, and 9-C 3-D seismic data
• Rock physics
• 3-D matrix and fracture modeling simulation
• Salt modeling and characterization
• Deep-water sedimentation
• High-level basin and play analysis
• Visualization to achieve integration
• Advanced technology transfer

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High-Frequency Stratigraphy 3-D Seismic
Attributes
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High-Frequency Stratigraphy
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High-Frequency Stratigraphy Ortho-Photo Draped
on DEM
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High-Frequency Stratigraphy ILRIS Laser Image
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Rock Physics BEG Austin Core Warehouse
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9-C 3-D Seismic Data P, SV, and SH
P
Z
Z
Z
X
X
X
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9-C 3-D Seismic Data Fracture Azimuth

0

3
0

6
0

9
0


Q
A
c
8
4
3
1
c
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Fractures
F2
F1
10 m
Weber Sandstone Plan View Fracture Traces CL
Frontier Sandstone, Wyoming Plan View Fracture
Traces Air Photograph
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Fracture Strike Mapping Microfractures Predict
Large Fractures
Fracture Strike
Laubach et al., 2000, The Leading Edge Laubach,
1997, AAPG Bulletin
East Texas, Travis Peak Formation
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Previously InvisibleMicrofractures
Fracture
Transmitted Light CL
Outcrop sample, Poland. Conventional CL.
Match point
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Fracture IntensityQuantitative Data for Mapping
and Flow Modeling
Fracture Intensity
Marrett et al., 1999, Geology. Stowell, 2000, SPE.
West Texas, Ozona Canyon
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Salt Research

• Physical Models

Seismic Studies
Field Studies
Numerical Models
Martin Jackson, AGL, BEG
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Seismic Deep-Water AnalysisRMS Amplitude
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Seismic Deep-Water AnalysisStratal Slicing
Exposed shelf
T100
T300
T500
T700
T900
T1100
T1300
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Happy hunting. And, as always, thanks!