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Model results and sensitivity analyses connected
to the impact of CO2-permit prices on energy
markets in the Nordic countries Hans Ravn,
RAM-løse edb Tiina Koljonen, VTT Lasse Torgersen,
ECON Thomas Engberg Pedersen, COWI Per Erik
Springfeldt, EME Analys Thomas Unger, Profu
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Why energy systems modeling ?

• Real-world problems are very complex. To tackle
  this
• a model
• - simplifies the real world into a comprehensive
  form
• - filters the noise, i.e. what happens if
  given that
• ? Increases the understanding of the
  system-in-focus and
• improves decision-making
• ? Models are also used for direct forecasting
  (e.g. electricity-price
• forecasting)
• ? Models may act as an objective platform for
• communication to the participants involved
  

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The NEP models
The rest of the macro economy
Energy demand
The technical energy system (conversion system)
Resources
MARKAL-NORDIC ECON-Classic VTT-EMM PoMo Balmorel G
eneral equilibrium models
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The NEP models Basic features
Model Geography Market Investments Balmorel T
he Baltic Electricity and Generally endogenized
(exog in Sea Area distr heating the present
analysis) PoMo The Nordic Electricity Exogeno
us countries (excl Den) ECON-Classic Northern
Europe Electricity Exogenous VTT-EMM The
Nordic Electricity Exogenous countries MARKAL
-NORDIC The Nordic Stationary Endogenized coun
tries energy system
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Modeling process of the NEP project

• Simple comparison of model results from previous
  studies
• (no syncronization) presented in Stockholm
• Simple comparison of model results with
  syncronized input
• presented in Köpenhamn
• 3 Modeling of NEP-specific issues (syncronized
  input)

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• Syncronized
• Fuel costs (fossil fuels and biomass)
• EUR/MWh 2010 2020
• Gas 17 19
• HFO 22 24
• Coal 5,9 6,0
• Biomass (upper) 19 19
• Swedish nuclear phase-out
• Discount rate (7)
• CO2-permit prices 10, 20 and 50 EUR/t
• Not syncronized
• Technology costs (investments, OM) and
  performance
• Model mathematics (object. funct, dynamics
  etc.)

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Syncronized input ? What about output ?
Syncronized model runs (The Köpenhamn
experience)
Non-syncronized model runs (The Stockholm
experience)
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Perspectives

• Different models, unsynchronized input, give
  different simulation results
• An opportunity to enhance understanding of what
  is important with respect to
• model functionality
• data
• To the extent that the models reflect aspects of
  reality also an opportunity to learn about
  reality and influence it
• which types of instruments could be applied
• how much, when, where,