Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts on policy and decision making 28th- 29th September 2006

1
Second International Seville Seminar on
Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA)
Impacts on policy and decision making28th- 29th
September 2006
Monstrous Foresight
Matt Staton
A Bigger Splash Ltd.
2
Monstrous Foresight
Route Map
Who,what,why

• Matt Staton
• Barcelona
• A Bigger Splash
• Keen foresighter
• Responding to the line in the call for papers on
• Epistemology, presuppositions, underpinning
  things

3
Monstsrous Foresight
Theres no future in foresight.
A strange thing about foresight is that you
rarely hear anything about the future

• We think, debate and shape it
• But the future as such is never mentioned
• Seems unproblematic, common-or-garden space/time

4
Monstrous Foresight
A Weak concept of future is a problem
Of course, it cant account for itself fully, but

• Such a key concept needs a bit more attention
• Not simply out there, the same stuff as present
• We posit, populate, exclude, stake claims -
  politics

5
Monstrous Foresight
By default F has become dominated by dialogue
And this dialogic approach is peculiarly
limiting

• Open, interactive, communicative, learning,
  consensus
• But barely a form of communication at all
• And conspires to exclude or subsume the future
  proper

6
Monstrous Foresight
And we get a future tied to today
Extending our present conversations forward, a bit

• As it is judged by their clarity and relevance
• So we get management and resource allocation
  plans
• Never beyond future contained in present, future
  perfect

7
Monstrous Foresight
But future is different stuff to present
And if we use tools designed to cope with present

• Creates conceptual or language game clash
• Future either escapes us or looks like the
  present
• Leaves us with problems from Mike and Remis
  paper

8
Monstrous Foresight
Of course, ST governance vital
But we dont need foresight for most of this

• Again, Mike and Remis paper lists benefits
• Better strategies, making case for increased RD
  spend, creation of networks clusters,
  collective learning etc.
• All excellent, none unique

9
Monstrous Foresight
Is there a future for foresight?
Different future, different future, new role

• Danger, break, monstrosity, shakes values, no
  exergue
• Open, unpredicatable, emerging for first time
• In form we cant administer under existing rules
• Demands stronger (be)foresight

10
Monstrous Foresight
So, undirected monster chasing, good idea!
But how would we sell this to funders?

• With different take on what science does
• Paralogic and not performative
• fracta, conflicts, catastrophes, paradoxes,
  unknown

11
Monstrous Foresight
Some (v.) preliminary thoughts about practice
What kind of work might this actually be?

• New ideas, shocks, echoes, junk, flotsam, residue
• Something like research not management/admin
  supplement
• In name of knowledge, not insitutions, cultures,
  govt
• Legitimised/evaluated by paralogy resistant
  outcomes

12
Monstrous Foresight
What kind of tools might do the job?
Nothing ever happens to a subject foresight
machines

• Future arrives to something other than subject
• Perhaps think about revisiting big Delphis
• Augmented with potential of IT

13
Monstrous Foresight
Conclusion
The incomprehensible may be the revolutionary

• Anomalies, monsters, the intolerable, the
  unacceptable
• Transform the nature of social and culture
  experience
• Before appropriation and assimilation and
  dialogue
• This might be the ground of foresight
• Working on conceptual frontier
• Welcoming, receptive to the monstrous arrivant
• Anticipatory foresight, common ground we all
  share
• Thanks