Overview on impact studies and relevant ongoing projects on impact and adaptation within the KLIMAzwei programme in Germany. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Title: Overview on impact studies and relevant ongoing projects on impact and adaptation within the KLIMAzwei programme in Germany.


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Overview on impact studies and relevant ongoing
projects on impact and adaptation within the
KLIMAzwei programme in Germany.
COST 734 MC Meeting Poznan 20.-22.5.2007

• K. C. Kersebaum

Leibniz-Centre of Agricultural Landscape
Research Müncheberg
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Federal states of Germany and study areas for
climate change impact
Brandenburg
Hessen
Baden-Württemberg
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INKLIM 2012 study for Hessen http//www.hlug.de/m
edien/luft/inklim/berichte_II_folgen.htm

• Region Hessen
• Topics
• Analysis climate history
• Regional climate change scenarios
• Impact on ground and surface water
• Agriculture
• Forestry
• Crop phenology (season shift)
• Viticulture
• Orchards
• Nature Conservation
• Health protection
• Soil conservation

• Yield maize, wheat, barley, rape,
• sugar beet, pasture (DAYCENT)
• Wine phenology, risks and suitability
• for varieties (Huglin Index)
• Phenology of apple, cherries, others
• Risks (drought, hail, frost, etc.)

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INKLIM The crop model concept of DAYCENT
dtemperature
dprecipitation

• K.C.Kersebaum

Retention properties of soil
Required temperature sum until ripening
Effect of water stress on ripening (-gt harvest
index)
Alcamo et al. 2005
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INKLIM Relative yield changes 2041-2050 compared
to reference (1980-2000) IPCC-SRES B2
barley
pasture
rape
maize
sugar beet
wheat
Alcamo et al. 2005
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INKLIM Shift of phenological seasons in Hessen
observed and simulated
Total Hessen Hessen district 348 only
Late autumn and winter
winter
1961-1990 (observed)
2041-2050 (simulated)
autumn
Early and full autumn
spring
spring
summer
summer
Streitfert et al. 2005
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KLARA (Climate Change Impact Risk
Adaptation)

• Region Baden-Württemberg
• Topics
• Vulnerability
• Climatic indicators and extremes
• Health
• Agriculture
• Forestry
• Tourism
• Nature Conservation
• Waterway transportation
• Hazards

• Yield maize and wheat (SWIM)
• Apple scrap risk
• Codling moth (Cydia pomonella)
• Wine growing periods (Huglin Index)

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KLARA Average monthly sums of daily infection
risk for apple scrab Mean and standard deviation
of 4 stations at lake Constanz for 1951-2000 and
2001-2055
Stock et al. 2005
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Brandenburg study Expected changes of
temperature and precipitation Period 2046-2055
compared to reference period 1951-2000 scenario
A1B
Change of precipitation
Change of temperature
Gerstengabe et al. 2003
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Brandenburg study Relative changes of yields for
maize and wheat Period 2040-2050 compared to
reference period 1980-1990 scenario A1B
maize
Wheat
Relative changes maize (reference 100)
Relative changes wheat (reference 100)
No data
No data
Gerstengabe et al. 2003
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Summary of all studies on crop yield Yields for
wheat will change by -17 for Brandenburg (- 7
with estimated CO2 effect) -10 for Hessen -14
for Baden-Württemberg Yields for maize will
change by 2 for Brandenburg (8 with estimated
CO2 effect) -5 for Hessen No significant change
on average for Baden Württemberg Disadvantages
Crop models are relatively general CO2 effect is
mostly not considered CO2 effect on water
consumtion is generally not considered
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Relation between fertilization and yield resp.
N-leaching for the site Kemlitz, Brandenburg for
historical and predicted climate
conditions calculations with HERMES (Kersebaum,
2005)
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klimazwei Research for Climate Protection and
Protection from Climate Impacts a programme of
the Federal Ministry of Education and Research
(BMBF)
With the research programme klimazwei, BMBF is
bringing implementation-oriented projects to the
forefront of its funding policies. A total of 39
projects are being funded to develop innovative
technologies and strategies that strengthen our
ability to act and secure our competitiveness
under conditions of climate change. At the core
of all these projects are innovative ideas on how
to mitigate risks resulting from climate change
and to seize opportunities for society and the
economy.
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Klimazwei programme structure

• Projects A Mitigation
• Technics for Emission Reduction
• Logistics
• Environmental Technologies
• Projects B Adaptation
• Regional Networks and Strategies
• Tourism
• Early Warning Systems/Automation
• Natural resources (water-, agriculture- and
  forestry)
• Communication/Mainstreaming
• Projects C Accompanying projects supporting the
  programme klimazwei

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KLARA-Net (www.klara-net.de) is focusing on the
establishment of a regional stakeholder network
that works out fields of action and particular
measures for climate change adaptation.
Additionally, KLARA-Net is undertaking actions to
raise public awareness in matters of climate
change. In the current phase of the project four
working groups (1. Agriculture, Forestry and
Winegrowing 2. Building Economy, Water Economy
and Planning 3. Health 4. Tourism) are
discussing and creating adaptation measures for
the region Starkenburg/Hesse.Project A
Regions Climate Protection and Adaptation
Potentials and their Development the case study
Chiemgau-Inn-Salzach aims to mobilise and focus
the innovative development forces of a region
with regard to climate protection and adaptation.
3 phases 1) conception and building of a
regional strategy as well as a regional network
for climate change and adaptation. 2)
Identification and testing of path-breaking model
projects. 3) Transfer of regional experiences
gained in the model projects other regions. 3
fields of action a) Use of renewable regional
energy re-sources, b) water retention and land
use as well as c) mobilisation of the
consumers/population.

• Agricultural related projects on
• Natural resources (water-, agriculture- and
  forestry)

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Agricultural related projects on Natural
resources (water-, agriculture- and forestry)
Project Climate Change Adaptation of Wheat
Production in Germany through Plant Breeding
The objective is to find cost-effective ways of
adaptation to climate change in the area of plant
breeding research. To determine the pressure of
adaptation locally restricted climatic scenarios
with a very high spatial resolution will be used
to force a dynamic vegetation model. In this
manner the effect to the crop of wheat will be
assessed and effects will be described by
appropriate stress indicators. In a second step,
the potential of plant breeding to develop wheat
varieties adapted to climate change will be
assessed. The focus is to develop wheat varieties
adapted to the abiotic stress complex
heat/drought. Project KliO (www.agrar.hu-berlin.
de/agrarmet/forschung/fp/KliO_html Climate
Change and Fruit Growing in Germany) The
objective of this project is to investigate the
possible regional impacts of climate change on
fruit-growing in Germany. The KliO project
intends to develop application relevant
strategies for adaptation and evaluate the impact
of these adaptation measures on the sectors
profitability and productivity.
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Agricultural related projects on Natural
resources (water-, agriculture- and forestry)
Project BatroS Soil Amelioration and Cultivation
Technologies for Arable Land Exposed to Drought
(www.batros.de) Lusatia is supposed to be most
affected by increasing risk of droughts during
the growing season. The regionally prevailing
nutrient poor sandy substrates reinforce the
impacts of drought and require to adapt the
traditional agricultural management practices to
the changing climatic conditions. New
amelioration and cultivation technologies to
adapt the existing management systems to water
stress or alternative landuse strategies
orienting on the selection of drought tolerant
species and mere biomass production. BAtroS has
been launched for testing soil amelioration
technologies which may increase the water storage
capacity of soils and, hence, the access of
plants to soil water. The project will apply an
alternative approach for testing the adaptation
of selected seeds and crops to drought,
considering traditional crops but also those
plant species known to be suitable for maximising
phytomass productivity.
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Agricultural related projects on Natural
resources (water-, agriculture- and forestry)
LandCaRe2020Land, Climate and Resources
Foresight and Potentials in Rural Areas under
Regional Climate Change (funding period
11/2006-10/2009) deals with effects of regional
climate change and weather extremes on
agriculture and water and material fluxes at the
landscape level. Tools will be provided for
decision making in agriculture, related
industries and environmental issues in rural
areas. Central objective of the project is the
development of a dynamic decision support system
(LandCaRe-DSS). The DSS is dynamic because it
allows new model runs with various sets of
scenarios and parameters by the user. 2 regions
in eastern Germany (1) the Uckermark in the dry
lowlands of Brandenburg and (2) the
Weißeritzkreis in the humid mountain area of
Saxony are used as model areas. The DSS includes
modules for past and future climate (scenarios
and weather statistics), ecology (quantitative
indicators for greenhouse gas emission, natural
plant production potentials, biodiversity), and
economy (land-use change, development of farm
income and employment, eco-nomic risks).
Integration of the modules is based on a
geographic information system (GIS). Based on
FACE experiments, model appoaches and parameters
will be developed to describe effects of
increased atmospheric CO2 on plant production and
water use.
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Projects C Accompanying projects supporting the
programme klimazwei
Service Group Adaptation (SGA)(sga_at_dkrz.de)
supports interdisciplinary activities with
application oriented focus on adaptation to
regional Climate Change. It has been established
to provide a common database and methodological
background to the project partners. SGA provides
both, simulated regional model data and
climatological observations. To address this task
SGA consists of two parts

• One has been implemented as a project of the
  national climate research service group Model
  and Data at the Max Planck Institute for
  Meteorology in Hamburg and provides model data
  and products.
• The second mission is carried out in close
  cooperation with the German Meteorological
  Service (DWD) in Offenbach and is concerned with
  long-term observation data.

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Thank you for your attention