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• As we look deeper into the 21st century, the
  name of the game has changed. Instead of
  isolation, we are faced with the pressing reality
  of a single, rapidly evolving, global and
  multiethnic culture. Connections and
  relationships cannot be ignored, because what
  happens in one part of the world, whether
  economic, political, cultural or environmental,
  affects all other parts.
• Loheed Brooks
• New Places for a New Age
• Urban Land

GLOBAL TRENDS 2008
PROGRESSIVE URBAN MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATES
2

• TOP 10 GLOBAL TRENDS
• Demographics
• 1. Changing American Demographics
• 2. Immigration Trends
• 3. Changes Within the
• Creative Class

GLOBAL TRENDS 2008
PROGRESSIVE URBAN MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATES
3

• TOP 10 GLOBAL TRENDS
• Lifestyles
• 4. Traffic Congestion Value of Time
• 5. Trends in Health Care, Wellness
• Recreation
• 6. Growth of Tourism
• 7. Americas Growing Debt Burden

GLOBAL TRENDS 2008
PROGRESSIVE URBAN MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATES
4

• TOP 10 GLOBAL TRENDS
• Global Competition Change
• 8. Emergence of China, India
• a Planetary Middle Class
• 9. Continued Advances
• in Technology
• 10. Environmentalism,
• Sustainability
• Climate Change

GLOBAL TRENDS 2008
PROGRESSIVE URBAN MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATES
5

• 1. Changing American Demographics
• Baby Boom 77 million born 1946 to 1964
• Sheer numbers support labor markets,
  entitlements
• College education rates increase 5x
• Shaped by suburbia, Cold War Civil Rights era
• Living longer, healthier
• Unprecedented wealth, to shift to next
  generation
• Empty nest market looking to downsize?

GLOBAL TRENDS 2008
PROGRESSIVE URBAN MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATES
6

• 1. Changing American Demographics
• Generation X 44 million born 1961 to 1981
• Cynical about the future, bitter toward baby
  boomers
• Shaped by information age ability to
  multi-task transfer skills enhances
  marketability in job market
• Value lifestyle over company loyalty
• Discretionary spenders, homebuyers at earlier
  age
• Majority now have children

GLOBAL TRENDS 2008
PROGRESSIVE URBAN MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATES
7

• 1. Changing American Demographics
• Millennials 70 million born 1977 to 2003
• Growing up with technology multi-taskers
• More optimistic, tolerant and open-minded
• Multi-cultural in majority of 100 largest U.S.
  cities, more than half under age 15 are racial
  andethnic minorities
• Spirit of volunteerism and passion to foster
  change
• Increasing impact in U.S. voting and
• elected office

GLOBAL TRENDS 2008
PROGRESSIVE URBAN MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATES
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• 2. Immigration Trends
• U.S. only major growing industrial country, due
  mostly to immigration
• Only 5 countries welcome immigrants as permanent
  residents U.S., Canada, Australia, New Zealand
  Israel
• 85 of U.S. immigrants from Latin America or
  Asia
• Shift away from traditional urban gateways to
  suburbs rural areas
• 49 languages currently spoken in
• Littleton Public Schools

GLOBAL TRENDS 2008
PROGRESSIVE URBAN MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATES
9

• 3. Changes Within the Creative Class
• Richard Floridas creatives attracted to
  diverse, tolerant,
• innovative and vibrant environments
• Entrepreneurs who staff/start innovative growing
  companies
• Growing importance of well-educated young women
• -60 of college enrollment by 2013
• -Majority of workforce by 2010
• Millennials to replenish/replace the creative
  class
• Quality schools key to attracting and
• retaining young families

GLOBAL TRENDS 2008
PROGRESSIVE URBAN MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATES
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• 4. Traffic Congestion and the Value of Time
• U.S. auto dependency increasingly costly in
  time and money
• Worsening traffic congestion cost Americans 63
  billion in 2005, 47 hours in average annual
  delays
• Denver 1986 20 hours
• 2005 50 hours
• Additional road capacity doing littleto stem
  congestion
• Transit growth has exceeded driving growth since
  1996
• Avoiding congestion a motivation for urban
  living?

GLOBAL TRENDS 2008
PROGRESSIVE URBAN MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATES
11

• 5. Trends in Healthcare and Wellness
• Demand for services increasing, supply
  decreasing
• Declining hospital use and stays for cost
  containment
• Nearly 46 million uninsured adding to cost burden
• More reliance on outpatient, retail and
  e-medicine
• Shortage of doctors and nurses projected
• Aging population will increase demand for
  services
• Urban form and health more obesity in suburbs,
  majority of Americans would like to walk and
  bike more

GLOBAL TRENDS 2008
PROGRESSIVE URBAN MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATES
12

• 6. Growth of Tourism
• An international growth market
• Tourism is worlds largest employer 200 million
  jobs
• U.S. ranked third as international tourism
  destination
• Expanding global middle class will increase
  tourism
• Weak dollar increasing visits to U.S.
• Cultural heritage tourism growing. Visitors stay
  longer, spend more
• Convention center space increasing, demand
  limited by industry consolidations, e-business

GLOBAL TRENDS 2008
PROGRESSIVE URBAN MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATES
13

• 7. Americas Growing Debt Burden
• American debt a looming economic cloud
• National debt 30K, Mortgage debt 42K Consumer
  debt 8K per capita
• Nearly 33 of Americans live pay check to pay
  check vs. 7 of consumers in China, India and
  Mexico
• In 1950, 16 workers for each social security
  recipient By 2030, 2 workers for each eligible
  recipient
• Economic expansion of past 15 years has seen
  savings rates decline from 7.5 of income to
  below zero
• 46 of national debt held by foreign countries
• Rising interest rates and inflation debt lack
  of savings ???

GLOBAL TRENDS 2008
PROGRESSIVE URBAN MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATES
14

• 8. The Emergence of China, India and a Planetary
  Middle Class
• In the same way that commentators refer to the
  1900s as the American Century, the 21st century
  may be seen as the time when Asia, led by China
  and India, comes into its own. A combination of
  sustained high economic growth, expanding
  military capabilities, and large populations will
  be at the root of the expected rise in economic
  and military power for both countries.
• Mapping the Global Future,
• U.S. National Intelligence Council

GLOBAL TRENDS 2008
PROGRESSIVE URBAN MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATES
15

• 8. The Emergence of China, India and a Planetary
  Middle Class
• In 2005 China consumed 26 of global steel, 32
  of rice, 37 of cotton and 47 of cement
• 2006 construction in Shanghai Existing NYC
  office market
• Billionaires in China 15 in 2006,
• 106 in 2007
• U.S. outsourcing to India to quadruple by 2010
  to 56B/yr.
• Country with largest number of English speakers
  by 2010? India
• Growing global middle class creates markets for
  U.S. goods
• Innovation trumps brawn
• Income disparities continue to create
  instability, foster terrorism

GLOBAL TRENDS 2008
PROGRESSIVE URBAN MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATES
16

• 9. Continued Advances in Technology
• Areas where technology will have the largest
  impact
• Health, biotechnology (genomics, bioinformatics)
• Alternative sources of energy
• Nanotechnology (engineering on a molecular scale)
• Quality of life enhancements accessing
  information and entertainment through e-portals
• New channels for doing business

GLOBAL TRENDS 2008
PROGRESSIVE URBAN MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATES
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• 9. Continued Advances in Technology
• Technology and business
• Real-time anywhere wireless communications will
  increase competition and open global markets
• World is Flat globalization to be driven by
  individuals
• One billion online, 11 annual increase through
  2010
• Uploading Bottom-up creation of culture,
  knowledge innovation
• E-commerce increasing, but less than 3 of total
  retail sales
• Cities compete with increasing personal mobility
  and living options

GLOBAL TRENDS 2008
PROGRESSIVE URBAN MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATES
18

• 10. Environmentalism and Sustainability
• A rapidly urbanizing world
• Majority of planet now lives in cities
• Today 3 billion 6 billion by 2050
• Autos in China
• 1 million in 1995
• 50 million today
• 150 million by 2015
• At current growth rates, number of vehicles and
  global energy consumption could more than double
  by 2030

GLOBAL TRENDS 2008
PROGRESSIVE URBAN MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATES
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• 10. Environmentalism and Sustainability
• A rapidly urbanizing world
• U.S. transportation system 97
• dependent on petroleum fuels
• U.S. buildings consume 36 of
• total energy, 65 of electricity
• Half of American homes projected
• by 2030 do not yet exist
• U.S. cities launching green building
• and sustainability initiatives
• Chicago, San Francisco, Seattle,
• Portland, New York City, Denver

GLOBAL TRENDS 2008
PROGRESSIVE URBAN MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATES
20

• Conclusions
• Overall, trends favorable for vibrant
  communities?
• America growing, younger older, more diverse
• Increasingly connected
• competitive world
• Resource-intensive lifestyles
• increasingly expensive and
• not sustainable

GLOBAL TRENDS 2008
PROGRESSIVE URBAN MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATES
21

• Conclusions
• Warning signs that could impede new investment
• Global disparities create continued instability
• American debt burden on collision course with
  aging demographics and global inflationary
  pressures

GLOBAL TRENDS 2008
PROGRESSIVE URBAN MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATES
22

• Implications for Littleton
• Demographics
• Welcome younger, multi-cultural populations
• Create an environment that appeals to young
  women
• Keep the talent pool as they age schools,
  parks
• Diverse price points needed for housing

GLOBAL TRENDS 2008
PROGRESSIVE URBAN MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATES
23

• Implications for Littleton
• Lifestyles
• Implement localized transit strategies
• Offer affordable accessible health care
• Offer stimulating, multi-dimensional experiences
  i.e. fun
• Walkability and active recreation
• Heritage tourism an opportunity?

GLOBAL TRENDS 2008
PROGRESSIVE URBAN MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATES
24

• Implications for Littleton
• Global Competition Change
• Entrepreneurship continues to be the key to job
  growth
• Adaptive reuse more affordable as construction
  costs rise
• Localities lead sustainability efforts

GLOBAL TRENDS 2008
PROGRESSIVE URBAN MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATES